Sub-national tailoring of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in Mali based on malaria surveillance and rainfall data.

BACKGROUND: In malaria endemic countries, seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) interventions are performed during the high malaria transmission in accordance with epidemiological surveillance data. In this study we propose a predictive approach for tailoring the timing and number of cycles of SMC in all health districts of Mali based on sub-national epidemiological surveillance and rainfall data. Our primary objective was to select the best of two approaches for predicting the onset of the high transmission season at the operational scale. Our secondary objective was to evaluate the number of malaria cases, hospitalisations and deaths in children under 5 years of age that would be prevented annually and the additional cost that would be incurred using the best approach. METHODS: For each of the 75 health districts of Mali over the study period (2014-2019), we determined (1) the onset of the rainy season period based on weekly rainfall data; (ii) the onset and duration of the high transmission season using change point analysis of weekly incidence data; and (iii) the lag between the onset of the rainy season and the onset of the high transmission. Two approaches for predicting the onset of the high transmission season in 2019 were evaluated. RESULTS: In the study period (2014-2019), the onset of the rainy season ranged from week (W) 17 (W17; April) to W34 (August). The onset of the high transmission season ranged from W25 (June) to W40 (September). The lag between these two events ranged from 5 to 12 weeks. The duration of the high transmission season ranged from 3 to 6 months. The best of the two approaches predicted the onset of the high transmission season in 2019 to be in June in two districts, in July in 46 districts, in August in 21 districts and in September in six districts. Using our proposed approach would prevent 43,819 cases, 1943 hospitalisations and 70 deaths in children under 5 years of age annually for a minimal additional cost. Our analysis shows that the number of cycles of SMC should be changed in 36 health districts. CONCLUSION: Adapting the timing of SMC interventions using our proposed approach could improve the prevention of malaria cases and decrease hospitalisations and deaths. Future studies should be conducted to validate this approach.

Stratification at the health district level for targeting malaria control interventions in Mali.

Malaria is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Mali. Between 2017 and 2020, the number of cases increased in the country, with 2,884,827 confirmed cases and 1454 reported deaths in 2020. We performed a malaria risk stratification at the health district level in Mali with a view to proposing targeted control interventions. Data on confirmed malaria cases were obtained from the District Health Information Software 2, data on malaria prevalence and mortality in children aged 6-59 months from the 2018 Demographic and Health Survey, entomological data from Malian research institutions working on malaria in the sentinel sites of the National Malaria Control Program (NMCP), and environmental data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. A stratification of malaria risk was performed. Targeted malaria control interventions were selected based on spatial heterogeneity of malaria incidence, malaria prevalence in children, vector resistance distribution, health facility usage, child mortality, and seasonality of transmission. These interventions were discussed with the NMCP and the different funding partners. In 2017-2019, median incidence across the 75 health districts was 129.34 cases per 1000 person-years (standard deviation = 86.48). Risk stratification identified 12 health districts in very low transmission areas, 19 in low transmission areas, 20 in moderate transmission areas, and 24 in high transmission areas. Low health facility usage and increased vector resistance were observed in high transmission areas. Eight intervention combinations were selected for implementation. Our work provides an updated risk stratification using advanced statistical methods to inform the targeting of malaria control interventions in Mali. This stratification can serve as a template for continuous malaria risk stratifications in Mali and other countries.

Geo-Epidemiology of Malaria at the Health Area Level, Dire Health District, Mali, 2013-2017.

Background: According to the World Health Organization, there were more than 228 million cases of malaria globally in 2018, with 93% of cases occurring in Africa; in Mali, a 13% increase in the number of cases was observed between 2015 and 2018; this study aimed to evaluate the impact of meteorological and environmental factors on the geo-epidemiology of malaria in the health district of Dire, Mali. Methods: Meteorological and environmental variables were synthesized using principal component analysis and multiple correspondence analysis, the relationship between malaria incidence and synthetic indicators was determined using a multivariate general additive model; hotspots were detected by SaTScan. Results: Malaria incidence showed high inter and intra-annual variability; the period of high transmission lasted from September to February; health areas characterized by proximity to the river, propensity for flooding and high agricultural yield were the most at risk, with an incidence rate ratio of 2.21 with confidence intervals (95% CI: 1.85-2.58); malaria incidence in Dire declined from 120 to 20 cases per 10,000 person-weeks between 2013 and 2017. Conclusion: The identification of areas and periods of high transmission can help improve malaria control strategies.

Impact of a malaria intervention package in schools on Plasmodium infection, anaemia and cognitive function in schoolchildren in Mali: a pragmatic cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: School-aged children are rarely targeted by malaria control programmes, yet the prevalence of Plasmodium infection in primary school children often exceeds that seen in younger children and could affect haemoglobin concentration and school performance. METHODS: A cluster-randomised trial was carried out in 80 primary schools in southern Mali to evaluate the impact of a school-based malaria intervention package. Intervention schools received two interventions sequentially: (1) teacher-led participatory malaria prevention education, combined with distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), followed 7 months later at the end of the transmission season by (2) mass delivery of artesunate and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine administered by teachers, termed intermittent parasite clearance in schools (IPCs). Control schools received LLINs as part of the national universal net distribution programme. The impact of the interventions on malaria and anaemia was evaluated over 20 months using cross-sectional surveys in a random subset of 38 schools(all classes), with a range of cognitive measures (sustained attention, visual search, numeracy, vocabulary and writing) assessed in a longitudinal cohort of children aged 9-12 years in all 80 schools. RESULTS: Delivery of a single round of IPCs was associated with dramatic reductions in malaria parasitaemia (OR 0.005, 95% CI 0.002 to 0.011, p<0.001) and gametocyte carriage (OR 0.02, 95% CI 0.00 to 0.17, p<0.001) in intervention compared with control schools. This effect was sustained for 6 months until the beginning of the next transmission season. IPCs was also associated with a significant decrease in anaemia (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.78, p=0.001), and increase in sustained attention (difference +0.23, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.36, p<0.001). There was no evidence of impact on other cognitive measures. CONCLUSION: The combination of malaria prevention education, LLINs and IPCs can reduce anaemia and improve sustained attention of school children in areas of highly seasonal transmission. These findings highlight the impact of asymptomatic malaria infection on cognitive performance in schoolchildren and the benefit of IPCs in reducing this burden. Additionally, malaria control in schools can help diminish the infectious reservoir that sustains Plasmodium transmission.