Automated AI labeling of optic nerve head enables insights into cross-ancestry glaucoma risk and genetic discovery in >280,000 images from UKB and CLSA.

Cupping of the optic nerve head, a highly heritable trait, is a hallmark of glaucomatous optic neuropathy. Two key parameters are vertical cup-to-disc ratio (VCDR) and vertical disc diameter (VDD). However, manual assessment often suffers from poor accuracy and is time intensive. Here, we show convolutional neural network models can accurately estimate VCDR and VDD for 282,100 images from both UK Biobank and an independent study (Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging), enabling cross-ancestry epidemiological studies and new genetic discovery for these optic nerve head parameters. Using the AI approach, we perform a systematic comparison of the distribution of VCDR and VDD and compare these with intraocular pressure and glaucoma diagnoses across various genetically determined ancestries, which provides an explanation for the high rates of normal tension glaucoma in East Asia. We then used the large number of AI gradings to conduct a more powerful genome-wide association study (GWAS) of optic nerve head parameters. Using the AI-based gradings increased estimates of heritability by ∼50% for VCDR and VDD. Our GWAS identified more than 200 loci associated with both VCDR and VDD (double the number of loci from previous studies) and uncovered dozens of biological pathways; many of the loci we discovered also confer risk for glaucoma.

Characterising risk of in-hospital mortality following cardiac arrest using machine learning: A retrospective international registry study.

BACKGROUND: Resuscitated cardiac arrest is associated with high mortality; however, the ability to estimate risk of adverse outcomes using existing illness severity scores is limited. Using in-hospital data available within the first 24 hours of admission, we aimed to develop more accurate models of risk prediction using both logistic regression (LR) and machine learning (ML) techniques, with a combination of demographic, physiologic, and biochemical information. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Patient-level data were extracted from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) Adult Patient Database for patients who had experienced a cardiac arrest within 24 hours prior to admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) during the period January 2006 to December 2016. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. The models were trained and tested on a dataset (split 90:10) including age, lowest and highest physiologic variables during the first 24 hours, and key past medical history. LR and 5 ML approaches (gradient boosting machine [GBM], support vector classifier [SVC], random forest [RF], artificial neural network [ANN], and an ensemble) were compared to the APACHE III and Australian and New Zealand Risk of Death (ANZROD) predictions. In all, 39,566 patients from 186 ICUs were analysed. Mean (±SD) age was 61 ± 17 years; 65% were male. Overall in-hospital mortality was 45.5%. Models were evaluated in the test set. The APACHE III and ANZROD scores demonstrated good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] = 0.80 [95% CI 0.79-0.82] and 0.81 [95% CI 0.8-0.82], respectively) and modest calibration (Brier score 0.19 for both), which was slightly improved by LR (AUROC = 0.82 [95% CI 0.81-0.83], DeLong test, p < 0.001). Discrimination was significantly improved using ML models (ensemble and GBM AUROCs = 0.87 [95% CI 0.86-0.88], DeLong test, p < 0.001), with an improvement in performance (Brier score reduction of 22%). Explainability models were created to assist in identifying the physiologic features that most contributed to an individual patient's survival. Key limitations include the absence of pre-hospital data and absence of external validation. CONCLUSIONS: ML approaches significantly enhance predictive discrimination for mortality following cardiac arrest compared to existing illness severity scores and LR, without the use of pre-hospital data. The discriminative ability of these ML models requires validation in external cohorts to establish generalisability.