Detecting population declines via monitoring the effective number of breeders (Nb ).

Estimating the effective population size and effective number of breeders per year (Nb ) can facilitate early detection of population declines. We used computer simulations to quantify bias and precision of the one-sample LDNe estimator of Nb in age-structured populations using a range of published species life history types, sample sizes, and DNA markers. Nb estimates were biased by ~5%-10% when using SNPs or microsatellites in species ranging from fishes to mosquitoes, frogs, and seaweed. The bias (high or low) was similar for different life history types within a species suggesting that life history variation in populations will not influence Nb estimation. Precision was higher for 100 SNPs (H ≈ 0.30) than for 15 microsatellites (H ≈ 0.70). Confidence intervals (CIs) were occasionally too narrow, and biased high when Nb was small (Nb  < 50); however, the magnitude of bias would unlikely influence management decisions. The CIs (from LDNe) were sufficiently narrow to achieve high statistical power (≥0.80) to reject the null hypothesis that Nb  = 50 when the true Nb  = 30 and when sampling 50 individuals and 200 SNPs. Similarly, CIs were sufficiently narrow to reject Nb  = 500 when the true Nb  = 400 and when sampling 200 individuals and 5,000 loci. Finally, we present a linear regression method that provides high power to detect a decline in Nb when sampling at least five consecutive cohorts. This study provides guidelines and tools to simulate and estimate Nb for age structured populations (https://github.com/popgengui/agestrucnb/), which should help biologists develop sensitive monitoring programmes for early detection of changes in Nb and population declines.

Effects of a barley (Hordeum vulgare) chromosome 6 grain protein content locus on whole-plant nitrogen reallocation under two different fertilisation regimes.

A large fraction of protein N harvested with crop seeds is derived from N remobilisation from senescing vegetative plant parts, while a smaller fraction stems from de novo N assimilation occurring after anthesis. This study contrasts near-isogenic barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) germplasm, varying in the allelic state of a major grain protein content (GPC) locus on chromosome 6. Plant material was grown under both low- and high-N fertilisation levels. The analyses indicated that leaf N remobilisation occurred earlier in high-GPC germplasm under both fertilisation regimes, as indicated by an earlier decrease of total leaf N, chlorophylls, soluble- and membrane-proteins. At the same time, kernel free amino acid levels were enhanced, while leaf free amino acid levels were lower in high-GPC barleys, suggesting enhanced retranslocation of organic N to the developing sinks. Enhanced or longer availability of leaf nitrates was detected in high-GPC varieties and lines, at least under high N fertilisation, indicating that the GPC locus profoundly influences whole-plant N allocation and management. Results presented here, together with data from a recent transcriptomic analysis, make a substantial contribution to our understanding of whole-plant N storage, remobilisation and retranslocation to developing sinks.