Towards a machine-learning assisted non-invasive classification of dengue severity using wearable PPG data: a prospective clinical study.

BACKGROUND: Dengue epidemics impose considerable strain on healthcare resources. Real-time continuous and non-invasive monitoring of patients admitted to the hospital could lead to improved care and outcomes. We evaluated the performance of a commercially available wearable (SmartCare) utilising photoplethysmography (PPG) to stratify clinical risk for a cohort of hospitalised patients with dengue in Vietnam. METHODS: We performed a prospective observational study for adult and paediatric patients with a clinical diagnosis of dengue at the Hospital for Tropical Disease, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Patients underwent PPG monitoring early during admission alongside standard clinical care. PPG waveforms were analysed using machine learning models. Adult patients were classified between 3 severity classes: i) uncomplicated (ward-based), ii) moderate-severe (emergency department-based), and iii) severe (ICU-based). Data from paediatric patients were split into 2 classes: i) severe (during ICU stay) and ii) follow-up (14-21 days after the illness onset). Model performances were evaluated using standard classification metrics and 5-fold stratified cross-validation. FINDINGS: We included PPG and clinical data from 132 adults and 15 paediatric patients with a median age of 28 (IQR, 21-35) and 12 (IQR, 9-13) years respectively. 1781 h of PPG data were available for analysis. The best performing convolutional neural network models (CNN) achieved a precision of 0.785 and recall of 0.771 in classifying adult patients according to severity class and a precision of 0.891 and recall of 0.891 in classifying between disease and post-disease state in paediatric patients. INTERPRETATION: We demonstrate that the use of a low-cost wearable provided clinically actionable data to differentiate between patients with dengue of varying severity. Continuous monitoring and connectivity to early warning systems could significantly benefit clinical care in dengue, particularly within an endemic setting. Work is currently underway to implement these models for dynamic risk predictions and assist in individualised patient care. FUNDING: EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training in High-Performance Embedded and Distributed Systems (HiPEDS) (Grant: EP/L016796/1) and the Wellcome Trust (Grants: 215010/Z/18/Z and 215688/Z/19/Z).

Applying artificial intelligence and digital health technologies, Viet Nam.

Problem: Direct application of digital health technologies from high-income settings to low- and middle-income countries may be inappropriate due to challenges around data availability, implementation and regulation. Hence different approaches are needed. Approach: Within the Viet Nam ICU Translational Applications Laboratory project, since 2018 we have been developing a wearable device for individual patient monitoring and a clinical assessment tool to improve dengue disease management. Working closely with local staff at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, we developed and tested a prototype of the wearable device. We obtained perspectives on design and use of the sensor from patients. To develop the assessment tool, we used existing research data sets, mapped workflows and clinical priorities, interviewed stakeholders and held workshops with hospital staff. Local setting: In Viet Nam, a lower middle-income country, the health-care system is in the nascent stage of implementing digital health technologies. Relevant changes: Based on patient feedback, we are altering the design of the wearable sensor to increase comfort. We built the user interface of the assessment tool based on the core functionalities selected by workshop attendees. The interface was subsequently tested for usability in an iterative manner by the clinical staff members. Lessons learnt: The development and implementation of digital health technologies need an interoperable and appropriate plan for data management including collection, sharing and integration. Engagements and implementation studies should be conceptualized and conducted alongside the digital health technology development. The priorities of end-users, and understanding context and regulatory landscape are crucial for success.

A modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score for dengue: development, evaluation and proposal for use in clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a neglected tropical disease, for which no therapeutic agents have shown clinical efficacy to date. Clinical trials have used strikingly variable clinical endpoints, which hampers reproducibility and comparability of findings. We investigated a delta modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (delta mSOFA) score as a uniform composite clinical endpoint for use in clinical trials investigating therapeutics for moderate and severe dengue. METHODS: We developed a modified SOFA score for dengue, measured and evaluated its performance at baseline and 48 h after enrolment in a prospective observational cohort of 124 adults admitted to a tertiary referral hospital in Vietnam with dengue shock. The modified SOFA score included pulse pressure in the cardiovascular component. Binary logistic regression, cox proportional hazard and linear regression models were used to estimate association between mSOFA, delta mSOFA and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: The analysis included 124 adults with dengue shock. 29 (23.4%) patients required ICU admission for organ support or due to persistent haemodynamic instability: 9/124 (7.3%) required mechanical ventilation, 8/124 (6.5%) required vasopressors, 6/124 (4.8%) required haemofiltration and 5/124 (4.0%) patients died. In univariate analyses, higher baseline and delta (48 h) mSOFA score for dengue were associated with admission to ICU, requirement for organ support and mortality, duration of ICU and hospital admission and IV fluid use. CONCLUSIONS: The baseline and delta mSOFA scores for dengue performed well to discriminate patients with dengue shock by clinical outcomes, including duration of ICU and hospital admission, requirement for organ support and death. We plan to use delta mSOFA as the primary endpoint in an upcoming host-directed therapeutic trial and investigate the performance of this score in other phenotypes of severe dengue in adults and children.

The compensatory reserve index predicts recurrent shock in patients with severe dengue.

BACKGROUND: Dengue shock syndrome (DSS) is one of the major clinical phenotypes of severe dengue. It is defined by significant plasma leak, leading to intravascular volume depletion and eventually cardiovascular collapse. The compensatory reserve Index (CRI) is a new physiological parameter, derived from feature analysis of the pulse arterial waveform that tracks real-time changes in central volume. We investigated the utility of CRI to predict recurrent shock in severe dengue patients admitted to the ICU. METHODS: We performed a prospective observational study in the pediatric and adult intensive care units at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Patients were monitored with hourly clinical parameters and vital signs, in addition to continuous recording of the arterial waveform using pulse oximetry. The waveform data was wirelessly transmitted to a laptop where it was synchronized with the patient's clinical data. RESULTS: One hundred three patients with suspected severe dengue were recruited to this study. Sixty-three patients had the minimum required dataset for analysis. Median age was 11 years (IQR 8-14 years). CRI had a negative correlation with heart rate and moderate negative association with blood pressure. CRI was found to predict recurrent shock within 12 h of being measured (OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.54-3.26), P < 0.001). The median duration from CRI measurement to the first recurrent shock was 5.4 h (IQR 2.9-6.8). A CRI cutoff of 0.4 provided the best combination of sensitivity and specificity for predicting recurrent shock (0.66 [95% CI 0.47-0.85] and 0.86 [95% CI 0.80-0.92] respectively). CONCLUSION: CRI is a useful non-invasive method for monitoring intravascular volume status in patients with severe dengue.

Novel Clinical Monitoring Approaches for Reemergence of Diphtheria Myocarditis, Vietnam.

Diphtheria is a life-threatening, vaccine-preventable disease caused by toxigenic Corynebacterium bacterial species that continues to cause substantial disease and death worldwide, particularly in vulnerable populations. Further outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases are forecast because of health service disruptions caused by the coronavirus disease pandemic. Diphtheria causes a spectrum of clinical disease, ranging from cutaneous forms to severe respiratory infections with systemic complications, including cardiac and neurologic. In this synopsis, we describe a case of oropharyngeal diphtheria in a 7-year-old boy in Vietnam who experienced severe myocarditis complications. We also review the cardiac complications of diphtheria and discuss how noninvasive bedside imaging technologies to monitor myocardial function and hemodynamic parameters can help improve the management of this neglected infectious disease.

Applied machine learning for the risk-stratification and clinical decision support of hospitalised patients with dengue in Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Identifying patients at risk of dengue shock syndrome (DSS) is vital for effective healthcare delivery. This can be challenging in endemic settings because of high caseloads and limited resources. Machine learning models trained using clinical data could support decision-making in this context. METHODS: We developed supervised machine learning prediction models using pooled data from adult and paediatric patients hospitalised with dengue. Individuals from 5 prospective clinical studies in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam conducted between 12th April 2001 and 30th January 2018 were included. The outcome was onset of dengue shock syndrome during hospitalisation. Data underwent random stratified splitting at 80:20 ratio with the former used only for model development. Ten-fold cross-validation was used for hyperparameter optimisation and confidence intervals derived from percentile bootstrapping. Optimised models were evaluated against the hold-out set. FINDINGS: The final dataset included 4,131 patients (477 adults and 3,654 children). DSS was experienced by 222 (5.4%) of individuals. Predictors were age, sex, weight, day of illness at hospitalisation, indices of haematocrit and platelets over first 48 hours of admission and before the onset of DSS. An artificial neural network model (ANN) model had best performance with an area under receiver operator curve (AUROC) of 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-0.85) in predicting DSS. When evaluated against the independent hold-out set this calibrated model exhibited an AUROC of 0.82, specificity of 0.84, sensitivity of 0.66, positive predictive value of 0.18 and negative predictive value of 0.98. INTERPRETATION: The study demonstrates additional insights can be obtained from basic healthcare data, when applied through a machine learning framework. The high negative predictive value could support interventions such as early discharge or ambulatory patient management in this population. Work is underway to incorporate these findings into an electronic clinical decision support system to guide individual patient management.

An appraisal of respiratory system compliance in mechanically ventilated covid-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: Heterogeneous respiratory system static compliance (CRS) values and levels of hypoxemia in patients with novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) requiring mechanical ventilation have been reported in previous small-case series or studies conducted at a national level. METHODS: We designed a retrospective observational cohort study with rapid data gathering from the international COVID-19 Critical Care Consortium study to comprehensively describe CRS-calculated as: tidal volume/[airway plateau pressure-positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP)]-and its association with ventilatory management and outcomes of COVID-19 patients on mechanical ventilation (MV), admitted to intensive care units (ICU) worldwide. RESULTS: We studied 745 patients from 22 countries, who required admission to the ICU and MV from January 14 to December 31, 2020, and presented at least one value of CRS within the first seven days of MV. Median (IQR) age was 62 (52-71), patients were predominantly males (68%) and from Europe/North and South America (88%). CRS, within 48 h from endotracheal intubation, was available in 649 patients and was neither associated with the duration from onset of symptoms to commencement of MV (p = 0.417) nor with PaO2/FiO2 (p = 0.100). Females presented lower CRS than males (95% CI of CRS difference between females-males: - 11.8 to - 7.4 mL/cmH2O p < 0.001), and although females presented higher body mass index (BMI), association of BMI with CRS was marginal (p = 0.139). Ventilatory management varied across CRS range, resulting in a significant association between CRS and driving pressure (estimated decrease - 0.31 cmH2O/L per mL/cmH20 of CRS, 95% CI - 0.48 to - 0.14, p < 0.001). Overall, 28-day ICU mortality, accounting for the competing risk of being discharged within the period, was 35.6% (SE 1.7). Cox proportional hazard analysis demonstrated that CRS (+ 10 mL/cm H2O) was only associated with being discharge from the ICU within 28 days (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.02-1.28, p = 0.018). CONCLUSIONS: This multicentre report provides a comprehensive account of CRS in COVID-19 patients on MV. CRS measured within 48 h from commencement of MV has marginal predictive value for 28-day mortality, but was associated with being discharged from ICU within the same period. Trial documentation: Available at https://www.covid-critical.com/study . TRIAL REGISTRATION: ACTRN12620000421932.

Metformin as adjunctive therapy for dengue in overweight and obese patients: a protocol for an open-label clinical trial (MeDO).

Background:  Dengue is a disease of major global importance. While most symptomatic infections are mild, a small proportion of patients progress to severe disease with risk of hypovolaemic shock, organ dysfunction and death.  In the absence of effective antiviral or disease modifying drugs, clinical management is solely reliant on supportive measures. Obesity is a growing problem among young people in Vietnam and is increasingly recognised as an important risk factor for severe dengue, likely due to alterations in host immune and inflammatory pathways. Metformin, a widely used anti-hyperglycaemic agent with excellent safety profile, has demonstrated potential as a dengue therapeutic in vitro and in a retrospective observational study of adult dengue patients with type 2 diabetes.  This study aims to assess the safety and tolerability of metformin treatment in overweight and obese dengue patients, and investigate its effects on several clinical, immunological and virological markers of disease severity. Methods: This open label trial of 120 obese/overweight dengue patients will be performed in two phases, with a metformin dose escalation if no safety concerns arise in phase one. The primary endpoint is identification of clinical and laboratory adverse events.  Sixty overweight and obese dengue patients aged 10-30 years will be enrolled at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Participants will complete a 5-day course of metformin therapy and be compared to a non-treated group of 60 age-matched overweight and obese dengue patients. Discussion:  Previously observed antiviral and immunomodulatory effects of metformin make it a promising dengue therapeutic candidate in appropriately selected patients. This study will assess the safety and tolerability of adjunctive metformin in the management of overweight and obese young dengue patients, as well as its effects on markers of viral replication, endothelial dysfunction and host immune responses.  Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04377451 (May 6 th 2020).

Microvascular Fluid Exchange: Implications of the Revised Starling Model for Resuscitation of Dengue Shock Syndrome.

Dengue is the most common mosquito-borne viral infection in the world. The most feared complication is a poorly understood vasculopathy that occurs in only a small minority of symptomatic individuals, especially children and young adults, but can result in potentially fatal dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Based mainly on expert opinion, WHO management guidelines for DSS recommend prompt infusion of a crystalloid fluid bolus followed by a tapering crystalloid fluid regimen, supplemented if necessary by boluses of synthetic colloid solutions. However, following publication of a number of major trials undertaken in other, primarily adult, critical care scenarios, use of both synthetic colloid solutions and of fluid boluses for volume expansion have become controversial. Synthetic colloids tend to be used for severe DSS cases in order to boost intravascular oncotic pressure, based on the classic Starling hypothesis in which opposing hydrostatic and oncotic forces determine fluid flow across the microvascular barrier. However, the revised Starling model emphasizes the critical contribution of the endothelial glycocalyx layer (EGL), indicating that it is the effective oncotic pressure gradient across the EGL not endothelial cells per se that opposes filtration. Based on several novel concepts that are integral to the revised Starling model, we review the clinical features of DSS and discuss a number of implications that are relevant for fluid management. We also highlight the need for context-specific clinical trials that address crucially important questions around the management of DSS.

Intravenous magnesium sulfate for the management of severe hand, foot, and mouth disease with autonomic nervous system dysregulation in Vietnamese children: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Over the last 15 years, hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has emerged as a major public health burden across the Asia-Pacific region. A small proportion of HFMD patients, typically those infected with enterovirus 71 (EV71), develop brainstem encephalitis with autonomic nervous system (ANS) dysregulation and may progress rapidly to cardiopulmonary failure and death. Although milrinone has been reported to control hypertension and support myocardial function in two small studies, in practice, a number of children still deteriorate despite this treatment. Magnesium sulfate (MgSO4) is a cheap, safe, and readily available medication that is effective in managing tetanus-associated ANS dysregulation and has shown promise when used empirically in EV71-confirmed severe HFMD cases. METHODS/DESIGN: We describe the protocol for a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial of intravenous MgSO4 in Vietnamese children diagnosed clinically with HFMD plus ANS dysregulation with systemic hypertension. A loading dose of MgSO4 or identical placebo is given over 20 min followed by a maintenance infusion for 72 h according to response, aiming for Mg levels two to three times the normal level in the treatment arm. The primary endpoint is a composite of disease progression within 72 h defined as follows: development of pre-specified blood pressure criteria necessitating the addition of milrinone, the need for ventilation, shock, or death. Secondary endpoints comprise these parameters singly, plus other clinical endpoints including the following: requirement for other inotropic agents; duration of hospitalization; presence of neurological sequelae at discharge in survivors; and neurodevelopmental status assessed 6 months after discharge. The number and severity of adverse events observed in the two treatment arms will also be compared. Based on preliminary data from a case series, and allowing for some losses, 190 patients (95 in each arm) will allow detection of a 50 % reduction in disease progression with 90 % power at a two-sided 5 % significance level. DISCUSSION: Given the large numbers of HFMD cases currently being seen in hospitals in Asia, if MgSO4 is shown to be effective in controlling ANS dysregulation and preventing severe HFMD complications, this finding would be important to pediatric care throughout the region. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01940250 (Registered 22 August 2013).