Genetic evidence for a Janzen-Connell recruitment pattern in reproductive offspring of Pinus halepensis trees.

Effective seed dispersal, combining both dispersal and postdispersal (establishment) processes, determines population dynamics and colonization ability in plants. According to the Janzen-Connell (JC) model, high mortality near the mother plant shifts the offspring establishment distribution farther away from the mother plant relative to the seed dispersal distribution. Yet, extending this prediction to the distribution of mature (reproductive) offspring remains a challenge for long-living plants. To address this challenge, we selected an isolated natural Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) population in Mt. Pithulim (Israel), which expanded from five ancestor trees in the beginning of the 20th century into ∼2000 trees today. Using nine microsatellite markers, we assigned parents to trees established during the early stages of population expansion. To elucidate the effect of the distance from the mother plant on postdispersal survival, we compared the effective seed dispersal kernel, based on the distribution of mother-offspring distances, with the seed dispersal kernel, based on simulations of a mechanistic wind dispersal model. We found that the mode of the effective dispersal kernel is shifted farther away than the mode of the seed dispersal kernel, reflecting increased survival with increasing distance from the mother plant. The parentage analysis demonstrated a highly skewed reproductive success and a strong directionality in effective dispersal corresponding to the wind regime. We thus provide compelling evidence that JC effects act also on offspring that become reproductive and persist as adults for many decades, a key requirement in assessing the role of postdispersal processes in shaping population and community dynamics.

Analysis of spatial genetic structure in an expanding Pinus halepensis population reveals development of fine-scale genetic clustering over time.

We analysed the change of spatial genetic structure (SGS) of reproductive individuals over time in an expanding Pinus halepensis population. To our knowledge, this is the first empirical study to analyse the temporal component of SGS by following the dynamics of successive cohorts of the same population over time, rather than analysing different age cohorts at a single time. SGS is influenced by various factors including restricted gene dispersal, microenvironmental selection, mating patterns and the spatial pattern of reproductive individuals. Several factors that affect SGS are expected to vary over time and as adult density increases. Using air photo analysis, tree-ring dating and molecular marker analysis we reconstructed the spread of reproductive individuals over 30 years beginning from five initial individuals. In the early stages, genotypes were distributed randomly in space. Over time and with increasing density, fine-scale (< 20 m) SGS developed and the magnitude of genetic clustering increased. The SGS was strongly affected by the initial spatial distribution and genetic variation of the founding individuals. The development of SGS may be explained by fine-scale environmental heterogeneity and possibly microenvironmental selection. Inbreeding and variation in reproductive success may have enhanced SGS magnitude over time.