National health spending projections through 2020: economic recovery and reform drive faster spending growth.

In 2010, US health spending is estimated to have grown at a historic low of 3.9 percent, due in part to the effects of the recently ended recession. In 2014, national health spending growth is expected to reach 8.3 percent when major coverage expansions from the Affordable Care Act of 2010 begin. The expanded Medicaid and private insurance coverage are expected to increase demand for health care significantly, particularly for prescription drugs and physician and clinical services. Robust growth in Medicare enrollment, expanded Medicaid coverage, and premium and cost-sharing subsidies for exchange plans are projected to increase the federal government share of health spending from 27 percent in 2009 to 31 percent by 2020. This article provides perspective on how the nation's health care dollar will be spent over the coming decade as the health sector moves quickly toward its new paradigm of expanded insurance coverage.

National health spending projections: the estimated impact of reform through 2019.

This paper presents updated national health spending projections for 2009-2019 that take into account recent comprehensive health reform legislation and other relevant changes in law and regulations. Relative to our February 2010 projections under prior law, average annual growth in national health spending over the projection period is estimated to be 0.2 percentage point higher than our previous estimate. The health care share of gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be 0.3 percentage point higher in 2019. Within these net overall impacts are larger differences for trends in spending and spending growth by payer, attributable to reform's many major changes to health care coverage and financing.

Health spending projections through 2019: the recession's impact continues.

The economic recession and rising unemployment-plus changing demographics and baby boomers aging into Medicare-are among the factors expected to influence health spending during 2009-2019. In 2009 the health share of gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have increased 1.1 percentage points to 17.3 percent-the largest single-year increase since 1960. Average public spending growth rates for hospital, physician and clinical services, and prescription drugs are expected to exceed private spending growth in the first four years of the projections. As a result, public spending is projected to account for more than half of all U.S. health care spending by 2012.