Using Novel Multimethod Evaluation Approaches to Understand Complex Food System Interventions: Insights from a Supply Chain Intervention Intended to Improve Nutrition.

Background: A "food system" approach to improve diet quality by intervening within areas such as food supply chains is gaining prominence. However, evidence of such interventions' impact, and understanding of appropriate methods to evaluate them, is lacking. Objectives: We present an impact evaluation of an intervention that aimed to increase consumption of nutritious foods by supporting food-producing firms in Kenya. In doing so, we demonstrate how multiple methods, including those from other disciplines, can be used to evaluate a complex food systems intervention. Methods: Four methods focused on food-producing firms and their management, including a survey of intervention participants (n = 83 individuals), a "laboratory-in-the-field" experiment (n = 83 individuals), baseline/endline data on firm performance (n = 71 firms), and semistructured interviews (n = 19 firms). Three methods focused on consumers in neighborhoods targeted by a supported firm: a randomized field experiment tested effects of making a supported product exhaustively available on consumers' purchases and consumption (n = 1295 consumers); 3 discrete choice experiments (n = 1295 consumers) tested factors influencing consumers' willingness to pay for foods with relevant characteristics. Results: Among firms, we saw suggestive evidence of increased networking and business relationships, while laboratory-in-the-field experiments indicated the intervention might foster cooperation among participants. Qualitative interviews suggested that the intervention enabled firms to increase production, improve management, increase revenues, and lower costs. Baseline/endline data confirmed a positive effect only on the launch of new products and hiring workers. In the field experiment, consumption of the supported product increased in areas where it was made available relative to a control group, but this did not increase overall consumption of the food type or dietary diversity. Conclusions: Results showed positive signs of the intervention improving firm-level outcomes but limited impact on consumers' diet quality. The evaluation also demonstrates how diverse methods can be used to evaluate complex interventions.

Assessment of the policy enabling environment for large-scale food fortification: A novel framework with an application to Kenya.

Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) programs have potential to improve a population's nutritional status. Though their success depends heavily on the prevailing policy environment, few tools exist to understand this environment. To address this gap, we develop a novel framework to define and assess the policy enabling environment for LSFF. This easy-to-apply framework can be used in any setting to track progress and identify next steps for continued improvements. The policy enabling environment is conceptualized as having three domains-policy agenda setting, policy implementation, and policy monitoring and evaluation-each of which is captured through indicators that can be evaluated using existing documentation, key informant interviews, and/or a survey of stakeholder perceptions. To validate the framework and demonstrate how it can be operationalized, we apply it in Kenya, where a mandatory LSFF program for salt has been in place since 1978, and a program for packaged maize and wheat flours and vegetable oils was introduced in 2012. Per our assessment, Kenya has achieved the greatest success within the domain of policy agenda setting, has realized moderate success in policy implementation, and has a weaker record in policy monitoring and evaluation. The positive trajectory for many indicators points to a promising future for Kenya's LSFF program. This assessment yields policy implications for Kenya to improve its policy environment for LSFF, especially around financial sustainability of the program; ways to improve the processes for surveillance and enforcement; efforts to support fortification among medium-and small-scale millers; and a need to improve the data landscape.

Food Systems Interventions for Nutrition: Lessons from 6 Program Evaluations in Africa and South Asia.

Although there is growing global momentum behind food systems strategies to improve planetary and human health-including nutrition-there is limited evidence of what types of food systems interventions work. Evaluating these types of interventions is challenging due to their complex and dynamic nature and lack of fit with standard evaluation methods. In this article, we draw on a portfolio of 6 evaluations of food systems interventions in Africa and South Asia that were intended to improve nutrition. We identify key methodological challenges and formulate recommendations to improve the quality of such studies. We highlight 5 challenges: a lack of evidence base to justify the intervention, the dynamic and multifaceted nature of the interventions, addressing attribution, collecting or accessing accurate and timely data, and defining and measuring appropriate outcomes. In addition to more specific guidance, we identify 6 cross-cutting recommendations, including a need to use multiple and diverse methods and flexible designs. We also note that these evaluation challenges present opportunities to develop new methods and highlight several specific needs in this space.

COVID-19's impacts on incomes and food consumption in urban and rural areas are surprisingly similar: Evidence from five African countries.

African governments imposed mobility restrictions to suppress the spread of COVID-19. Many observers feared these measures would dramatically decrease incomes and increase food insecurity and anticipated that urban households would be much more impacted than rural ones. We use rural and urban survey data from 4000 households across five African countries to assess the pandemic's effect on incomes and food consumption. We find that a large share of the population saw incomes drop between March and July 2020. But these decreases were 43-63% smaller than predictions and early estimates, and highly correlated with the severity of restrictions. The income and food consumption impacts of the COVID-19 shock were widespread over both rural and urban areas. Policy making during a pandemic should recognize that restrictive measures will affect rural and urban, farming and non-farming, and richer and poorer households.

The Processed food revolution in African food systems and the Double Burden of Malnutrition.

African consumers have purchased increasing amounts of processed food over the past 50 years. The opportunity cost of time of women and men has increased as more of them work outside the home, driving them to buy processed food and food prepared away from home to save arduous home-processing and preparation labor. In the past several decades, this trend has accelerated with a surge on the supply side of the processing sector and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and large private companies making massive aggregate investments. Packaged, industrialized, ultra-processed foods and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a growing proportion of the processed food consumed. Also, in the past several decades, overweight and obesity have joined the long-standing high levels of stunting and wasting among children and extreme thinness among women of childbearing age. Together these phenomena have formed a double burden of malnutrition (DBM). The DBM has emerged as an important health problem in sub-Saharan Africa. The rise of the DBM and the increase in ultra-processed food consumption are linked. Policy makers face a dilemma. On the one hand, purchases of processed food are driven by long-term factors, such as urbanization, increased income, and employment changes, and thus policy cannot change the pursuit of convenience and labor-saving food. Moreover, much processed food, like packaged milk, is a boon to nutrition, and the processed food system is a major source of jobs for women. On the other hand, the portion (some 10-30%) of processed food that is ultra-processed is a public health challenge, and policy must address its detrimental effects on disease burden. The global experience suggests that double duty actions are most important as are selected policies focused on healthy weaning foods for addressing stunting and taxes on SSBs, nutrition labeling, and other measures can steer consumers away from unhealthy ultra-processed foods to addressing obesity and possibly child nutrition and stunting. We recommend that African governments consider these policy options, but note that the current extreme fragmentation of the processing sector, consisting of vast numbers of informal SMEs in sub-Saharan Africa, and the limited administrative/implementation capacity of many African governments require pursuing this path only gradually.

Diet Quality and Urbanization in Mozambique.

Robust income growth combined with the highest urban population growth in the world is driving rapid changes in the food system of sub-Saharan Africa. Demand is increasing for higher quality as well as more processed foods. Countries are increasingly experiencing a double burden of over and under nutrition as the overweight and obesity epidemic spreads. In this context, we seek to understand the key drivers and likely evolution of diet quality in Mozambique, in both its positive and negative dimensions, while specifically examining the role of farm ownership among increasingly urban populations. We use national household expenditure survey data and a set of ordinary least square and analysis of variance regressions to observe patterns of current diet quality across city size categories, household income, household education, and other demographic variables. We then anticipate the likely directions of change in diet quality over these same dimensions based on expected income growth and expenditure elasticities developed for several alternative nutrients. We find that growing incomes and the consumption of processed foods are associated with a worsening of negative factors in the diet. Furthermore, urbanization, controlling for income, is associated more strongly with a worsening of negative factors than with an improvement in positive factors in the diet. The effect on diet quality of farm ownership, however, is positive and significant, primarily driven by these households purchasing fewer unhealthy foods. African cities need to consider what mix of policies will counteract the negative effects of continued urbanization and rising incomes on diets.

Ensuring the supply of and creating demand for a biofortified crop with a visible trait: lessons learned from the introduction of orange-fleshed sweet potato in drought-prone areas of Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: Orange-fleshed sweet potato (OFSP) is a promising biofortified crop for sub-Saharan Africa because it has high levels of provitamin A carotenoids, the formed vitamin A is bioavailable, and white-fleshed sweet potato is already widely grown. OBJECTIVES: To examine whether farmers will adopt varieties with a distinct visible trait, young children will eat OFSP in sufficient quantities to improve vitamin A intake, OFSP can serve as an entry point for promoting a more diversified diet, and lessons can be drawn to assure sustained adoption. METHODS: The 2-year quasi-experimental intervention study followed households and children (n = 741; mean age, 13 months at baseline) through two agricultural cycles in drought prone-areas of Mozambique. RESULTS: OFSP is acceptable to farmers when introduced by using an integrated approach. In the second year, intervention children (n = 498) were more likely than control children (n = 243) to have consumed OFSP (54% vs. 4%), dark-green leaves (60% vs. 46%), or ripe papaya (65% vs. 42%) on 3 or more days in the previous week (p < .001 for all comparisons). Their vitamin A intakes were nearly eight times higher than those of control children (median, 426 vs. 56 1g RAE [retinol activity equivalents], p < .001). Diet diversification was limited by difficult agroecological conditions and low purchasing power. However, dietary diversity was higher among intervention than control children (32% vs. 9% consuming food from more than four groups; p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: An integrated OFSP-based approach had a positive impact on the vitamin A intake of young children. A market development component and improved vine multiplication systems are recommended to assure sustained adoption.

A food-based approach introducing orange-fleshed sweet potatoes increased vitamin A intake and serum retinol concentrations in young children in rural Mozambique.

Vitamin A deficiency is widespread and has severe consequences for young children in the developing world. Food-based approaches may be an appropriate and sustainable complement to supplementation programs. Orange-fleshed sweet potato (OFSP) is rich in beta-carotene and is well accepted by young children. In an extremely resource poor area in Mozambique, the effectiveness of introduction of OFSP was assessed in an integrated agriculture and nutrition intervention, which aimed to increase vitamin A intake and serum retinol concentrations in young children. The 2-y quasi-experimental intervention study followed households and children (n = 741; mean age 13 mo at baseline) through 2 agricultural cycles. In y 2, 90% of intervention households produced OFSP, and mean OFSP plot size in intervention areas increased from 33 to 359 m(2). Intervention children (n = 498) were more likely than control children (n = 243) to eat OFSP 3 or more d in the last wk (55% vs. 8%, P < 0.001) and their vitamin A intakes were much higher than those of control children (median 426 vs. 56 microg retinol activity equivalent, P < 0.001). Controlling for infection/inflammation and other confounders, mean serum retinol increased by 0.100 micromol/L (SEM 0.024; P < 0.001) in intervention children and did not increase significantly in control subjects. Integrated promotion of OFSP can complement other approaches and contribute to increases in vitamin A intake and serum retinol concentrations in young children in rural Mozambique and similar areas in Sub-Saharan Africa.