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1.
J Chem Inf Model ; 2024 Jul 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39002142

ABSTRACT

Ribonucleic acid (RNA) molecules can adopt a variety of secondary and tertiary structures in solution, with stem-loops being one of the more common motifs. Here, we present a systematic analysis of 15 RNA stem-loop sequences simulated with molecular dynamics simulations in an implicit solvent environment. Analysis of RNA cluster ensembles showed that the stem-loop structures can generally adopt the A-form RNA in the stem region. Loop structures are more sensitive, and experimental structures could only be reproduced with modification of CH···O interactions in the force field, combined with an implicit solvent nonpolar correction to better model base stacking interactions. Accurately modeling RNA with current atomistic physics-based models remains challenging, but the RNA systems studied herein may provide a useful benchmark set for testing other RNA modeling methods in the future.

2.
J Gen Psychol ; : 1-28, 2024 Jun 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38840303

ABSTRACT

In English, head is associated with rationality and logic, whereas heart is related to feeling and emotionality. In Chinese, these head- and heart-related metaphors also exist. Could these head- and heart-related conceptual metaphors influence people's moral decision-making and personality? This seems so based on the previous findings that (a) simply pointing an index finger to heart (versus head) position caused participants to produce more emotional responses in a moral decision task, and (b) participants who believed themselves to be heart locators, relative to those who regarded themselves as head locators, scored higher in affect intensity, femininity, and intimacy related activities. The current study attempted to replicate these findings, following the same design and procedure of previous work, with Chinese participants from Hong Kong and Chinese mainland. In Experiments 1a and 1b, 203 participants performed the moral decision task on dilemmas with their index fingers pointing to head or heart. In Experiments 2a and 2b, 304 participants completed the scales of self-location, affective intensity, femininity, and intimacy related activities. In these high-powered experiments, we failed to replicate the findings of previous work. Bayesian analyses further showed that no head- and heart-related conceptual metaphor effect was likely to occur. Potential reasons for our inconsistent results with those of previous studies and the implications of our current findings were discussed.

3.
Behav Res Methods ; 56(4): 3794-3813, 2024 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38724878

ABSTRACT

The use of taboo words represents one of the most common and arguably universal linguistic behaviors, fulfilling a wide range of psychological and social functions. However, in the scientific literature, taboo language is poorly characterized, and how it is realized in different languages and populations remains largely unexplored. Here we provide a database of taboo words, collected from different linguistic communities (Study 1, N = 1046), along with their speaker-centered semantic characterization (Study 2, N = 455 for each of six rating dimensions), covering 13 languages and 17 countries from all five permanently inhabited continents. Our results show that, in all languages, taboo words are mainly characterized by extremely low valence and high arousal, and very low written frequency. However, a significant amount of cross-country variability in words' tabooness and offensiveness proves the importance of community-specific sociocultural knowledge in the study of taboo language.


Subject(s)
Language , Taboo , Humans , Semantics , Cross-Cultural Comparison
4.
Behav Res Methods ; 2024 May 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38750390

ABSTRACT

Investigation of affective and semantic dimensions of words is essential for studying word processing. In this study, we expanded Tse et al.'s (Behav Res Methods 49:1503-1519, 2017; Behav Res Methods 55:4382-4402, 2023) Chinese Lexicon Project by norming five word dimensions (valence, arousal, familiarity, concreteness, and imageability) for over 25,000 two-character Chinese words presented in traditional script. Through regression models that controlled for other variables, we examined the relationships among these dimensions. We included ambiguity, quantified by the standard deviation of the ratings of a given lexical variable across different raters, as separate variables (e.g., valence ambiguity) to explore their connections with other variables. The intensity-ambiguity relationships (i.e., between normed variables and their ambiguities, like valence with valence ambiguity) were also examined. In these analyses with a large pool of words and controlling for other lexical variables, we replicated the asymmetric U-shaped valence-arousal relationship, which was moderated by valence and arousal ambiguities. We also observed a curvilinear relationship between valence and familiarity and between valence and concreteness. Replicating Brainerd et al.'s (J Exp Psychol Gen 150:1476-1499, 2021; J Mem Lang 121:104286, 2021) quadratic intensity-ambiguity relationships, we found that the ambiguity of valence, arousal, concreteness, and imageability decreases as the value of these variables is extremely low or extremely high, although this was not generalized to familiarity. While concreteness and imageability were strongly correlated, they displayed different relationships with arousal, valence, familiarity, and valence ambiguity, suggesting their distinct conceptual nature. These findings further our understanding of the affective and semantic dimensions of two-character Chinese words. The normed values of all these variables can be accessed via https://osf.io/hwkv7 .

5.
J Autism Dev Disord ; 54(4): 1482-1493, 2024 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36710299

ABSTRACT

Emotion dysregulation is common among individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). This study examined the relationship between emotion dysregulation and resting heart rate variability (HRV), a marker of the autonomic nervous system, in ASD adolescents. Resting HRV data were collected from ASD (n = 23) and typically developing (TD) adolescents (n = 32) via short-term electrocardiogram. Parents/caregivers reported participants' level of emotion dysregulation with the Emotion Dysregulation Inventory (EDI). Controlling for the effects of age and gender, regression analyses revealed moderating effects of group, suggesting that lower resting HRV was more strongly associated with greater emotion dysregulation in ASD than TD adolescents. The results support the view that disruptions in autonomic functioning may contribute to emotion dysregulation in ASD.


Subject(s)
Autism Spectrum Disorder , Humans , Adolescent , Autism Spectrum Disorder/psychology , Heart Rate/physiology , Autonomic Nervous System , Electrocardiography , Emotions/physiology
6.
Sci Rep ; 13(1): 21377, 2023 12 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38049530

ABSTRACT

Contact with nature has emotional benefits, but the psychological mechanism and potential moderator underlying the association between nature contact and emotion regulation remain unclear. The present study investigated how self-reported frequency of nature contact is associated with the use of emotion regulation strategies and explored the mediating role of nature connectedness (i.e., psychological connection to nature) and the moderating role of engagement with natural beauty. Employing mediation and moderated mediation analyses, in a cross-sectional sample of 2097 young adults aged 18-35 years old (M = 24.01, SD = 4.80) residing in urban China, we obtained three major findings. First, nature connectedness mediated the associations between direct/indirect nature contact and cognitive reappraisal as well as expressive suppression. Second, engagement with natural beauty moderated the path from direct/indirect nature contact to cognitive reappraisal in the mediation models. Third, engagement with natural beauty moderated the path from indirect nature contact to nature connectedness in the mediation models. Our study is the first to reveal mediating and moderating factors in the relationships among direct/indirect contact with nature, nature connectedness, engagement with natural beauty, and emotion regulation strategies. These findings provide support for the emotional health of nature contact and have implications for nature-based education and urban planning.


Subject(s)
Emotional Regulation , Humans , Young Adult , Adolescent , Adult , Cross-Sectional Studies , Beauty , Emotions , Self Report
8.
Bioengineering (Basel) ; 10(10)2023 Sep 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37892868

ABSTRACT

This study aims to highlight recent research work on topics around prosthetic feet through a scientometric analysis and historical review. The most cited publications from the Clarivate Analytics Web of Science Core Collection database were identified and analyzed from 1 January 2000 to 31 October 2022. Original articles, reviews with full manuscripts, conference proceedings, early access documents, and meeting abstracts were included. A scientometric visualization analysis of the bibliometric information related to the publications, including the countries, institutions, journals, references, and keywords, was conducted. A total of 1827 publications met the search criteria in this study. The related publications grouped by year show an overall trend of increase during the two decades from 2000 to 2022. The United States is ranked first in terms of overall influence in this field (n = 774). The Northwestern University has published the most papers on prosthetic feet (n = 84). Prosthetics and Orthotics International has published the largest number of studies on prosthetic feet (n = 151). During recent years, a number of studies with citation bursts and burst keywords (e.g., diabetes, gait, pain, and sensor) have provided clues on the hotspots of prosthetic feet and prosthetic foot trends. The findings of this study are based on a comprehensive analysis of the literature and highlight the research topics on prosthetic feet that have been primarily explored. The data provide guidance to clinicians and researchers to further studies in this field.

9.
JPEN J Parenter Enteral Nutr ; 47(6): 729-735, 2023 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37255500

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Extracorporeal life support is an accepted treatment modality for children with severe cardiac and/or respiratory dysfunction. However, after a period of inadequate gut perfusion, clinicians are often reluctant to initiate enteral nutrition. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study in a single large pediatric intensive care unit in North West England over 5.5 years (2017-2022). RESULTS: One hundred fifty-six children, who had a median age of 2 months (IQR, 0.3-15) and a mean weight-for-age z score of -1.50 (SD, 1.7), were included. Indications for extracorporeal life support were respiratory failure (31%), cardiac arrest (28%), low cardiac output state (27%), and inability to separate from cardiopulmonary bypass (12%). Most (75%) children were fed during extracorporeal life support, with a median time to initiate feeding of 24 h (IQR, 12.2-42.7). More gastrointestinal complications were associated with being enterally fed (86% vs 14%; P < 0.001), but complications were predominantly feed intolerance (46%), which was associated with receiving formula feeds rather than maternal (breast) milk (P < 0.001). Overall, the proportion of children's median energy targets achieved by 72 h was 38% (IQR, 10.7%-76%), but this varied by support indication. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest most children tolerated enteral feeding within 24 h after extracorporeal life support initiation, with only mild gastrointestinal complications.


Subject(s)
Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation , Gastrointestinal Diseases , Humans , Child , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Enteral Nutrition/adverse effects , Retrospective Studies , Treatment Outcome , Gastrointestinal Diseases/etiology , Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation/adverse effects
10.
Behav Res Methods ; 55(8): 4382-4402, 2023 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36443581

ABSTRACT

Using a megastudy approach, (Tse et al., 2017 Behavior Research Methods, 49, 1503-1519) established a large-scale repository of lexical variables and lexical decision responses for more than 25,000 traditional Chinese two-character words. In the current study, we expand their database by collecting norms for speeded naming reaction times (RTs) and accuracy rates, and compiling more lexical variables (e.g., phonological consistency and semantic neighborhood size). Following Tse et al.'s procedure, about 33 college-aged native Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong read aloud each word. We conducted item-level regression analyses to test the relative predictive power of orthographic variables (e.g., stroke count), phonological variables (e.g., phonological consistency), and semantic variables (e.g., semantic transparency) in naming performance. We also compared the effects of lexical variables on naming performance and Tse et al.'s lexical decision performance to examine the extent to which effects are task-specific or task-general. Freely accessible to the research community, this resource provides a valuable addition to other influential mega-databases, such as the English Lexicon Project (Balota et al., 2004 Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 133, 283-316), and furthers our understanding of Chinese word recognition processes.


Subject(s)
Language , Recognition, Psychology , Humans , Young Adult , Recognition, Psychology/physiology , Semantics , Linguistics , Reaction Time/physiology
11.
Inf Sci (N Y) ; 607: 418-439, 2022 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35693835

ABSTRACT

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has unique epidemiological characteristics that include presymptomatic and asymptomatic infections, resulting in a large proportion of infected cases being unconfirmed, including patients with clinical symptoms who have not been identified by screening. These unconfirmed infected individuals move and spread the virus freely, presenting difficult challenges to the control of the pandemic. To reveal the actual pandemic situation in a given region, a simple dynamic susceptible-unconfirmed-confirmed-removed (D-SUCR) model is developed taking into account the influence of unconfirmed cases, the testing capacity, the multiple waves of the pandemic, and the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Using this model, the total numbers of infected cases in 51 regions of the USA and 116 countries worldwide are estimated, and the results indicate that only about 40% of the true number of infections have been confirmed. In addition, it is found that if local authorities could enhance their testing capacities and implement a timely strict quarantine strategy after identifying the first infection case, the total number of infected cases could be reduced by more than 90%. Delay in implementing quarantine measures would drastically reduce their effectiveness.

12.
Br J Psychol ; 113(3): 820-834, 2022 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35396713

ABSTRACT

The present study examined the roles of word concreteness and word valence in the immediate serial recall task. Emotion words (e.g. happy) were used to investigate these effects. Participants completed study-test trials with 7-item study lists consisting of positive or negative words with either high or low concreteness (Experiments 1 and 2) and neutral (i.e. non-emotion) words with either high or low concreteness (Experiment 2). In serial recall performance, we replicated the typical item concreteness effect (concrete words are better recalled than abstract words) and obtained an item valence effect (positive/neutral words are better recalled than negative words). However, there was no concreteness × valence interaction. We conclude that both word valence and word concreteness independently contribute to the serial order retention of emotion words in the immediate serial recall task.


Subject(s)
Memory, Short-Term , Mental Recall , Emotions , Humans , Semantics
13.
Liver Int ; 42(1): 149-160, 2022 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34610207

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND & AIMS: How adiposity influences the effect of genetic variants on non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in the Asian population remains unclear. We aimed to study the association between genetic risk variants and susceptibility/severity of NAFLD in the lean, overweight and obese individuals. METHODS: Nine hundred and four community subjects underwent proton-magnetic resonance spectroscopy and transient elastography examination. Lean (<23 kg/m2 ), overweight (23-24.9 kg/m2 ) and obesity (≥25 kg/m2 ) were defined according to the body mass index cut-offs for Asians. NAFLD was defined as intrahepatic triglycerides ≥5%. PNPLA3, TM6SF2, MBOAT7 and 9 other gene polymorphisms were analysed by rhAMPTM SNP assays. RESULTS: Five hundred and twenty-nine (58.5%), 162 (17.9%) and 213 (23.6%) subjects were lean, overweight and obese, respectively. The prevalence of NAFLD was 12.4%, 41.4% and 59.1% in the three groups (P < .001). Amongst those with NAFLD, lean subjects (30.3%) were more likely to carry the PNPLA3 rs738409 GG genotype than overweight (17.9%) and obese subjects (17.4%) (P = .003). Compared with the CC genotype, the GG genotype was associated with the greatest increase in the risk of NAFLD in lean subjects (odds ratio [OR] 6.04), compared with overweight (OR 3.43, 95% CI [1.06, 11.14]) and obese subjects (OR 2.51, 95% CI [0.93, 6.78]). Additionally, the TM6SF2 rs58542926 TT genotype was associated with reduced serum triglycerides only in lean subjects. A gene-BMI effect was not observed for the other gene polymorphisms. CONCLUSIONS: The PNPLA3 rs738409 gene polymorphism has a greater effect on liver fat in Asian lean individuals than in overweight or obese ones.


Subject(s)
Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease , Genetic Predisposition to Disease , Genotype , Humans , Lipase/genetics , Liver/pathology , Membrane Proteins/genetics , Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease/complications , Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease/epidemiology , Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease/genetics , Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide
14.
Q J Exp Psychol (Hove) ; 75(6): 1067-1084, 2022 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34507513

ABSTRACT

Whether a cognitive process is operated automatically or in a controlled manner has been a long-standing question in cognitive psychology. However, this issue has not been investigated in the activation of metaphoric association. A primed word valence judgement task is often used to test the activation of metaphoric association, in which participants first see a prime (bright/dark square or fixation point moving up or down from the centre of the screen) and then make a valence judgement to a target word. Metaphoric congruency effect occurs when participants make faster judgements to the target with valence being matched with the prime (good followed bright/top prime) than being mismatched with the prime (good followed dark/bottom prime). In the present two experiments, we manipulated prime-target stimulus-onset asynchrony (SOA) and proportion of metaphorically congruent trials (congruency proportion) to tease apart the effects of automatic and controlled activation of brightness-valence and spatial-valence metaphoric associations on word valence judgements. Results showed an overall effect of congruency proportion on brightness-valence and spatial-valence metaphoric congruency effect, which was independent of prime-target SOA. The effect was enhanced or reversed when congruency proportion was higher or lower than 0.5, respectively, suggesting that the activation of metaphoric association could be modulated by strategic control. The implications of these findings on the Conceptual Metaphor Theory and semantic priming theories are discussed.


Subject(s)
Metaphor , Semantics , Cognition , Humans , Judgment , Reaction Time/physiology
15.
Gait Posture ; 90: 283-288, 2021 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34537497

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Hallux valgus orthoses are available in a wide range of designs and materials, but the effects of their design on functional performance have not been fully investigated. RESEARCH QUESTION: This present study aims to comprehensively analyze the immediate effects of soft and semi-rigid hallux valgus orthoses on balance, plantar pressure, hallux valgus angle, and subjective sensations. METHODS: Sixteen female subjects have participated in the study, including 10 subjects with healthy feet and 6 with hallux valgus. Three conditions are tested, including in the barefoot and using two types of commercially available hallux valgus orthoses. The subjects participate in static and dynamic (walking) tests with the use of the Novel Pedar® system. The peak pressure values in the hallux, lateral toes, first metatarsophalangeal joint, 2-4th metatarsal heads, 5th metatarsal head, medial midfoot, lateral midfoot and rearfoot in the various foot conditions are examined and compared. The hallux valgus angle of each subject is measured based on their footprint. Their subjective feelings towards the orthoses are also evaluated. A repeated-measures analysis of variance, and independent-sample t-test are performed. RESULTS: The correction of the hallux valgus angle is statistically significant when the subjects with hallux valgus use the orthoses. In comparing the two types of orthoses, the use of the orthosis made of soft materials results in correction in the hallux valgus angle and higher wear comfort, and lower plantar pressure in hallux area. SIGNIFICANCE: The results provide insights into the design of hallux valgus orthoses, thus offering practical reference for the selection of hallux valgus orthosis with compromise between functional performance and wear comfort.


Subject(s)
Hallux Valgus , Metatarsal Bones , Female , Foot , Humans , Orthotic Devices , Pressure
16.
BMJ Open ; 11(8): e047273, 2021 08 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34408037

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The treatment effect of orthoses for hallux valgus (HV) is unclear with little interventional studies, the design involves multiple complex factors, and therefore a systematic analysis with meta-analysis is necessary. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to determine whether current foot orthoses are effective in treating HV. DESIGN: Systematic review with meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases (PubMed, Scopus, Cinahl and Medline) are searched up to February 2020. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES: Interventional studies with content focus on HV orthosis design and any of the outcomes related to effectiveness for treating HV are included. The standardised mean differences are calculated. The risk of bias in included studies is assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration's risk of bias tools. RESULTS: In total, 2066 articles are identified. Among them, nine are selected and quality rated, and data are extracted and closely examined. A meta-analysis is conducted, where appropriate. The main causes of potential bias are missing outcome data and outcome measurement error. The results show that orthosis with a toe separator has the best effect of correcting the HV angle (standardised mean difference: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.189 to 0.803). CONCLUSION: The orthoses design with a toe separator or an element that allows for the foot anatomic alignment is critical for reducing the HV angle and relieving foot pain. The results contribute to a better selection of treatment for patients. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42021260403.


Subject(s)
Foot Orthoses , Hallux Valgus , Braces , Foot , Hallux Valgus/therapy , Humans , Quality of Life
17.
IEEE J Biomed Health Inform ; 25(8): 2836-2847, 2021 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34129512

ABSTRACT

Not identified as being exposed or infected, the group of asymptomatic and presymptomatic patients has become the key source of infectious hosts for the COVID-19 pandemic, triggering the re-emergence of outbreaks. Acknowledging the impacts of movement of unidentified patients and the limited testing capacity on understanding the spread of the virus, an augmented Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Confirmed-Recovered (SEICR) model integrating intercity migration data and testing capacity is developed to probe into the number of unidentified COVID-19 infected patients. This model allows evaluation of the effectiveness of active interventions, and more accurate prediction of the pandemic progression in a country, region or city. A pseudo-coevolutionary algorithm is adopted in the model fitting to provide an effective estimation of high-dimensional unknown parameter sets using a limited amount of historical data. The model is applied to 175 regions in Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Spain, the UK and USA to estimate the number of unconfirmed cases using limited historical data. Results showed that the actual number of infected cases could be 4.309 times as many as the official confirmed number. By implementing mass COVID-19 testing, the number of infected cases could be reduced by about 50%.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Models, Biological , Pandemics , Algorithms , Asymptomatic Infections , COVID-19/transmission , COVID-19 Testing , Contact Tracing , Humans , Travel
18.
Psychol Res ; 85(7): 2610-2635, 2021 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33025209

ABSTRACT

In a word valence judgment task, positive words (e.g., excellence) are judged faster when presented at the top (congruent position) than at the bottom of the screen (incongruent position), whereas the opposite pattern occurs for negative words (e.g., disaster). This spatial-valence metaphoric congruency effect reflects top-positive/bottom-negative metaphoric association and may be attributed to at least three possible mechanisms: spreading activation between spatial and valence concepts (activation account), epistemic function that a conceptual metaphor serves to reduce the uncertainty associated with valence concepts (epistemic account), and/or the extent to which spatial-valence metaphoric association is relevant to task demand (relevance account). In three experiments, we manipulated congruency proportion, target eccentricity, and valence strength in a word valence judgment task to test these three possible accounts. Results showed that the metaphoric congruency effect was larger when a high (vs. equal) proportion of targets appears in congruent, relative to incongruent, position, and for targets with strong (vs. weak) valence. However, the effect in reaction time measure was not modulated by whether the target appeared in the position being near vs. far away from the center of the screen. The overall findings are better accommodated by the relevance account. The implications of the current findings on other theoretical accounts, such as Conceptual Metaphor Theory and polarity correspondence account, are also discussed.


Subject(s)
Judgment , Metaphor , Cognition , Humans , Reaction Time
19.
Br J Psychol ; 112(2): 474-492, 2021 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32940352

ABSTRACT

Multiple facial cues such as facial expression and face gender simultaneously influence facial trustworthiness judgement in adults. The current work was to examine the effect of multiple facial cues on trustworthiness judgement across age groups. Eight-, 10-year-olds, and adults detect trustworthiness from happy and neutral adult faces (female and male faces) in Experiment 1. Experiment 2 included both adult and child faces wearing happy, angry, and neutral expressions. Nine-, 11-, 13-year-olds, and adults had to rate facial trustworthiness with a 7-point Likert scale. The results of Experiments 1 and 2 revealed that facial expression and face gender independently affected facial trustworthiness judgement in children aged 10 and below but simultaneously affected judgement in children aged 11 and above, adolescents, and adults. There was no own-age bias in children and adults. The results showed that children younger than 10 could not process multiple facial cues in the same manner as in older children and adults when judging trustworthiness. The current findings provide evidence for the stable-feature account, but not for the own-age bias account or the expertise account.


Subject(s)
Cues , Trust , Adolescent , Adult , Child , Facial Expression , Female , Happiness , Humans , Judgment , Male
20.
PLoS One ; 15(10): e0241171, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33108386

ABSTRACT

This study integrates the daily intercity migration data with the classic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model to construct a new model suitable for describing the dynamics of epidemic spreading of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. Daily intercity migration data for 367 cities in China were collected from Baidu Migration, a mobile-app based human migration tracking data system. Early outbreak data of infected, recovered and death cases from official source (from January 24 to February 16, 2020) were used for model fitting. The set of model parameters obtained from best data fitting using a constrained nonlinear optimisation procedure was used for estimation of the dynamics of epidemic spreading in the following months. The work was completed on February 19, 2020. Our results showed that the number of infections in most cities in China would peak between mid February to early March 2020, with about 0.8%, less than 0.1% and less than 0.01% of the population eventually infected in Wuhan, Hubei Province and the rest of China, respectively. Moreover, for most cities outside and within Hubei Province (except Wuhan), the total number of infected individuals is expected to be less than 300 and 4000, respectively.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Models, Theoretical , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Transportation , Travel , Big Data , COVID-19 , Cell Phone , China/epidemiology , Cities , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Humans , Mobile Applications , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Time Factors , Travel-Related Illness
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