Estimating unconfirmed COVID-19 infection cases and multiple waves of pandemic progression with consideration of testing capacity and non-pharmaceutical interventions: A dynamic spreading model.

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has unique epidemiological characteristics that include presymptomatic and asymptomatic infections, resulting in a large proportion of infected cases being unconfirmed, including patients with clinical symptoms who have not been identified by screening. These unconfirmed infected individuals move and spread the virus freely, presenting difficult challenges to the control of the pandemic. To reveal the actual pandemic situation in a given region, a simple dynamic susceptible-unconfirmed-confirmed-removed (D-SUCR) model is developed taking into account the influence of unconfirmed cases, the testing capacity, the multiple waves of the pandemic, and the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Using this model, the total numbers of infected cases in 51 regions of the USA and 116 countries worldwide are estimated, and the results indicate that only about 40% of the true number of infections have been confirmed. In addition, it is found that if local authorities could enhance their testing capacities and implement a timely strict quarantine strategy after identifying the first infection case, the total number of infected cases could be reduced by more than 90%. Delay in implementing quarantine measures would drastically reduce their effectiveness.

Comparative Study of COVID-19 Pandemic Progressions in 175 Regions in Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Spain, U.K. and USA Using a Novel Model That Considers Testing Capacity and Deficiency in Confirming Infected Cases.

Not identified as being exposed or infected, the group of asymptomatic and presymptomatic patients has become the key source of infectious hosts for the COVID-19 pandemic, triggering the re-emergence of outbreaks. Acknowledging the impacts of movement of unidentified patients and the limited testing capacity on understanding the spread of the virus, an augmented Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Confirmed-Recovered (SEICR) model integrating intercity migration data and testing capacity is developed to probe into the number of unidentified COVID-19 infected patients. This model allows evaluation of the effectiveness of active interventions, and more accurate prediction of the pandemic progression in a country, region or city. A pseudo-coevolutionary algorithm is adopted in the model fitting to provide an effective estimation of high-dimensional unknown parameter sets using a limited amount of historical data. The model is applied to 175 regions in Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Spain, the UK and USA to estimate the number of unconfirmed cases using limited historical data. Results showed that the actual number of infected cases could be 4.309 times as many as the official confirmed number. By implementing mass COVID-19 testing, the number of infected cases could be reduced by about 50%.

Modeling and prediction of the 2019 coronavirus disease spreading in China incorporating human migration data.

This study integrates the daily intercity migration data with the classic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model to construct a new model suitable for describing the dynamics of epidemic spreading of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. Daily intercity migration data for 367 cities in China were collected from Baidu Migration, a mobile-app based human migration tracking data system. Early outbreak data of infected, recovered and death cases from official source (from January 24 to February 16, 2020) were used for model fitting. The set of model parameters obtained from best data fitting using a constrained nonlinear optimisation procedure was used for estimation of the dynamics of epidemic spreading in the following months. The work was completed on February 19, 2020. Our results showed that the number of infections in most cities in China would peak between mid February to early March 2020, with about 0.8%, less than 0.1% and less than 0.01% of the population eventually infected in Wuhan, Hubei Province and the rest of China, respectively. Moreover, for most cities outside and within Hubei Province (except Wuhan), the total number of infected individuals is expected to be less than 300 and 4000, respectively.

Prediction of COVID-19 spreading profiles in South Korea, Italy and Iran by data-driven coding.

This work applies a data-driven coding method for prediction of the COVID-19 spreading profile in any given population that shows an initial phase of epidemic progression. Based on the historical data collected for COVID-19 spreading in 367 cities in China and the set of parameters of the augmented Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model obtained for each city, a set of profile codes representing a variety of transmission mechanisms and contact topologies is formed. By comparing the data of an early outbreak of a given population with the complete set of historical profiles, the best fit profiles are selected and the corresponding sets of profile codes are used for prediction of the future progression of the epidemic in that population. Application of the method to the data collected for South Korea, Italy and Iran shows that peaks of infection cases are expected to occur before mid April, the end of March and the end of May 2020, and that the percentage of population infected in each city or region will be less than 0.01%, 0.5% and 0.5%, for South Korea, Italy and Iran, respectively.

Correction: Advanced Algorithms for Local Routing Strategy on Complex Networks.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0156756.].

Advanced Algorithms for Local Routing Strategy on Complex Networks.

Despite the significant improvement on network performance provided by global routing strategies, their applications are still limited to small-scale networks, due to the need for acquiring global information of the network which grows and changes rapidly with time. Local routing strategies, however, need much less local information, though their transmission efficiency and network capacity are much lower than that of global routing strategies. In view of this, three algorithms are proposed and a thorough investigation is conducted in this paper. These algorithms include a node duplication avoidance algorithm, a next-nearest-neighbor algorithm and a restrictive queue length algorithm. After applying them to typical local routing strategies, the critical generation rate of information packets Rc increases by over ten-fold and the average transmission time 〈T〉 decreases by 70-90 percent, both of which are key physical quantities to assess the efficiency of routing strategies on complex networks. More importantly, in comparison with global routing strategies, the improved local routing strategies can yield better network performance under certain circumstances. This is a revolutionary leap for communication networks, because local routing strategy enjoys great superiority over global routing strategy not only in terms of the reduction of computational expense, but also in terms of the flexibility of implementation, especially for large-scale networks.

Traffic congestion in interconnected complex networks.

Traffic congestion in isolated complex networks has been investigated extensively over the last decade. Coupled network models have recently been developed to facilitate further understanding of real complex systems. Analysis of traffic congestion in coupled complex networks, however, is still relatively unexplored. In this paper, we try to explore the effect of interconnections on traffic congestion in interconnected Barabási-Albert scale-free networks. We find that assortative coupling can alleviate traffic congestion more readily than disassortative and random coupling when the node processing capacity is allocated based on node usage probability. Furthermore, the optimal coupling probability can be found for assortative coupling. However, three types of coupling preferences achieve similar traffic performance if all nodes share the same processing capacity. We analyze interconnected Internet autonomous-system-level graphs of South Korea and Japan and obtain similar results. Some practical suggestions are presented to optimize such real-world interconnected networks accordingly.

A complex systems analysis of stick-slip dynamics of a laboratory fault.

We study the stick-slip behavior of a granular bed of photoelastic disks sheared by a rough slider pulled along the surface. Time series of a proxy for granular friction are examined using complex systems methods to characterize the observed stick-slip dynamics of this laboratory fault. Nonlinear surrogate time series methods show that the stick-slip behavior appears more complex than a periodic dynamics description. Phase space embedding methods show that the dynamics can be locally captured within a four to six dimensional subspace. These slider time series also provide an experimental test for recent complex network methods. Phase space networks, constructed by connecting nearby phase space points, proved useful in capturing the key features of the dynamics. In particular, network communities could be associated to slip events and the ranking of small network subgraphs exhibited a heretofore unreported ordering.

An efficient and secure medical image protection scheme based on chaotic maps.

Recently, the increasing demand for telemedicine services has raised interest in the use of medical image protection technology. Conventional block ciphers are poorly suited to image protection due to the size of image data and increasing demand for real-time teleradiology and other online telehealth applications. To meet this challenge, this paper presents a novel chaos-based medical image encryption scheme. To address the efficiency problem encountered by many existing permutation-substitution type image ciphers, the proposed scheme introduces a substitution mechanism in the permutation process through a bit-level shuffling algorithm. As the pixel value mixing effect is contributed by both the improved permutation process and the original substitution process, the same level of security can be achieved in a fewer number of overall rounds. The results indicate that the proposed approach provides an efficient method for real-time secure medical image transmission over public networks.

Characterizing chaotic dynamics from simulations of large strain behavior of a granular material under biaxial compression.

For a given observed time series, it is still a rather difficult problem to provide a useful and compelling description of the underlying dynamics. The approach we take here, and the general philosophy adopted elsewhere, is to reconstruct the (assumed) attractor from the observed time series. From this attractor, we then use a black-box modelling algorithm to estimate the underlying evolution operator. We assume that what cannot be modeled by this algorithm is best treated as a combination of dynamic and observational noise. As a final step, we apply an ensemble of techniques to quantify the dynamics described in each model and show that certain types of dynamics provide a better match to the original data. Using this approach, we not only build a model but also verify the performance of that model. The methodology is applied to simulations of a granular assembly under compression. In particular, we choose a single time series recording of bulk measurements of the stress ratio in a biaxial compression test of a densely packed granular assembly-observed during the large strain or so-called critical state regime in the presence of a fully developed shear band. We show that the observed behavior may best be modeled by structures capable of exhibiting (hyper-) chaotic dynamics.

Attack resilience of the evolving scientific collaboration network.

Stationary complex networks have been extensively studied in the last ten years. However, many natural systems are known to be continuously evolving at the local ("microscopic") level. Understanding the response to targeted attacks of an evolving network may shed light on both how to design robust systems and finding effective attack strategies. In this paper we study empirically the response to targeted attacks of the scientific collaboration networks. First we show that scientific collaboration network is a complex system which evolves intensively at the local level--fewer than 20% of scientific collaborations last more than one year. Then, we investigate the impact of the sudden death of eminent scientists on the evolution of the collaboration networks of their former collaborators. We observe in particular that the sudden death, which is equivalent to the removal of the center of the egocentric network of the eminent scientist, does not affect the topological evolution of the residual network. Nonetheless, removal of the eminent hub node is exactly the strategy one would adopt for an effective targeted attack on a stationary network. Hence, we use this evolving collaboration network as an experimental model for attack on an evolving complex network. We find that such attacks are ineffectual, and infer that the scientific collaboration network is the trace of knowledge propagation on a larger underlying social network. The redundancy of the underlying structure in fact acts as a protection mechanism against such network attacks.

Scale-free user-network approach to telephone network traffic analysis.

The effect of the user network on the telephone network traffic is studied in this paper. Unlike classical traffic analysis, where users are assumed to be connected uniformly, our proposed method employs a scale-free network to model the behavior of telephone users. Each user has a fixed set of acquaintances with whom the user may communicate, and the number of acquaintances follows a power-law distribution. We show that compared to conventional analysis based upon a fully connected user network, the network traffic is significantly different when the user network assumes a scale-free property. Specifically, network blocking (call failure) is generally more severe in the case of a scale-free user network. It is also shown that the carried traffic is practically limited by the scale-free property of the user network, rather than by the network capacity.