ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Up-to-date and accurate information about the health problems encountered by primary care doctors is essential to understanding the morbidity pattern of the community to better inform health care policy and practice. Morbidity surveys of doctors allow documentation of actual consultations, reflecting the patient's reason for seeking care as well as the doctor's diagnostic interpretation of the illness and management approach. Such surveys are particularly critical in the absence of a centralized primary care electronic medical record database. OBJECTIVE: With the changing sociodemographic profile of the population and implementation of health care initiatives in the past 10 years, the aim of this study is to determine the morbidity and management patterns in Hong Kong primary care during a pandemic and compare the results with the last survey conducted in 2007-2008. METHODS: This will be a prospective, practice-based survey of Hong Kong primary care doctors. Participants will be recruited by convenience and targeted sampling from both public and private sectors. Participating doctors will record the health problems and corresponding management activities for consecutive patient encounters during one designated week in each season of the year. Coding of health problems will follow the International Classification of Primary Care, Second Edition. Descriptive statistics will be used to calculate the prevalence of health problems and diseases as well as the rates of management activities (referral, investigation, prescription, preventive care). Nonlinear mixed effects models will assess the differences between the private and public sectors as well as factors associated with morbidity and management patterns in primary care. RESULTS: The data collection will last from March 1, 2021, to August 31, 2022. As of April 2022, 176 doctor-weeks of data have been collected. CONCLUSIONS: The results will provide information about the health of the community and inform the planning and allocation of health care resources. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04736992; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04736992. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/37334.
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: More than half of diabetes mellitus (DM) and pre-diabetes (pre-DM) cases remain undiagnosed, while existing risk assessment models are limited by focusing on diabetes mellitus only (omitting pre-DM) and often lack lifestyle factors such as sleep. This study aimed to develop a non-laboratory risk assessment model to detect undiagnosed diabetes mellitus and pre-diabetes mellitus in Chinese adults. METHODS: Based on a population-representative dataset, 1,857 participants aged 18-84 years without self-reported diabetes mellitus, pre-diabetes mellitus, and other major chronic diseases were included. The outcome was defined as a newly detected diabetes mellitus or pre-diabetes by a blood test. The risk models were developed using logistic regression (LR) and interpretable machine learning (ML) methods. Models were validated using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), precision-recall curve (AUC-PR), and calibration plots. Two existing diabetes mellitus risk models were included for comparison. RESULTS: The prevalence of newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus and pre-diabetes mellitus was 15.08%. In addition to known risk factors (age, BMI, WHR, SBP, waist circumference, and smoking status), we found that sleep duration, and vigorous recreational activity time were also significant risk factors of diabetes mellitus and pre-diabetes mellitus. Both LR (AUC-ROC = 0.812, AUC-PR = 0.448) and ML models (AUC-ROC = 0.822, AUC-PR = 0.496) performed well in the validation sample with the ML model showing better discrimination and calibration. The performance of the models was better than the two existing models. CONCLUSIONS: Sleep duration and vigorous recreational activity time are modifiable risk factors of diabetes mellitus and pre-diabetes in Chinese adults. Non-laboratory-based risk assessment models that incorporate these lifestyle factors can enhance case detection of diabetes mellitus and pre-diabetes.
