Modeling temporal dynamics of genetic diversity in stage-structured plant populations with reference to demographic genetic structure.

Predicting temporal dynamics of genetic diversity is important for assessing long-term population persistence. In stage-structured populations, especially in perennial plant species, genetic diversity is often compared among life history stages, such as seedlings, juveniles, and flowerings, using neutral genetic markers. The comparison among stages is sometimes referred to as demographic genetic structure, which has been regarded as a proxy of potential genetic changes because individuals in mature stages will die and be replaced by those in more immature stages over the course of time. However, due to the lack of theoretical examination, the basic property of the stage-wise genetic diversity remained unclear. We developed a matrix model which was made up of difference equations of the probability of non-identical-by-descent of each life history stage at a neutral locus to describe the dynamics and the inter-stage differences of genetic diversity in stage-structured plant populations. Based on the model, we formulated demographic genetic structure as well as the annual change rate of the probability of non-identical-by-descent (denoted as η). We checked if theoretical expectations on demographic genetic structure and η obtained from our model agreed with computational results of stochastic simulation using randomly generated 3,000 life histories. We then examined the relationships of demographic genetic structure with effective population size Ne, which is the determinants of diversity loss per generation time. Theoretical expectations on η and demographic genetic structure fitted well to the results of stochastic simulation, supporting the validity of our model. Demographic genetic structure varied independently of Ne and η, while having a strong correlation with stable stage distribution: genetic diversity was lower in stages with fewer individuals. Our results indicate that demographic genetic structure strongly reflects stable stage distribution, rather than temporal genetic dynamics, and that inferring future genetic diversity solely from demographic genetic structure would be misleading. Instead of demographic genetic structure, we propose η as an useful tool to predict genetic diversity at the same time scale as population dynamics (i.e., per year), facilitating evaluation on population viability from a genetic point of view.

Temporal skewness of pollination success in the spring ephemeral Trillium camschatcense.

Phenological overlap with pollinators is crucial for reproductive success in insect-pollinated plants. In this study, we examined whether pollinator visitation successfully occurred during an entire flowering season in two populations of the insect-pollinated spring ephemeral Trillium camschatcense in the Tokachi region of Hokkaido, northern Japan. We bagged flowers and excluded pollinator visitation during either the first or the last half of the entire flowering season to compare pollination success between the two periods. The two populations have experienced differing levels of climate warming in the last 60 years, which impacted pollinator visitation. In the population experiencing temperature rise more rapidly, fertilization rate and seed set decreased sharply when bagged during the first half period, indicating that pollinator visitation is skewed to the early part of the flowering season. The temporal skewness of pollination success would be an early warning signal of the impacts of climate warming on the reproductive success of T. camschatcense.

Plant community assembly in suburban vacant lots depends on earthmoving legacy, habitat connectivity, and current mowing frequency.

In suburban regions, vacant lots potentially offer significant opportunities for biodiversity conservation. Recently, in Japan, due to an economic recession, some previously developed lands have become vacant. Little is known, however, about the legacy of earlier earthmoving, which involves topsoil removal and ground leveling before residential construction, on plant community composition in such vacant lots. To understand (dis)assembly processes in vacant lots, we studied 24 grasslands in a suburban region in Japan: 12 grasslands that had experienced earthmoving and 12 that had not. We surveyed plant community composition and species richness, and clarified compositional turnover (replacement of species) and nestedness (nonrandom species loss) by distance-based ß-diversities, which were summarized by PCoA analysis. We used piecewise structural equation modeling to examine the effects of soil properties, mowing frequency, past and present habitat connectivities on compositional changes. As a result, past earthmoving, mowing frequency, soil properties, and past habitat connectivity were found to be the drivers of compositional turnover. In particular, we found legacy effects of earthmoving: earthmoving promoted turnover from native grassland species to weeds in arable lands or roadside by altering soil properties. Mowing frequency also promoted the same turnover, implying that extensive rather than intensive mowing can modify the negative legacy effects and maintain grassland species. Decrease in present habitat connectivity marginally enhanced nonrandom loss of native grassland species (nestedness). Present habitat connectivity had a positive effect on species richness, highlighting the important roles of contemporary dispersal. Our study demonstrates that community assembly is a result of multiple processes differing in spatial and temporal scales. We suggest that extensive mowing at local scale, as well as giving a high conservation priority to grasslands with high habitat connectivity at regional scale, is the promising actions to maintain endangered native grassland species in suburban landscapes with negative legacy effects of earthmoving.