ABSTRACT
BackgroundA novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) spread from the capital of the Hubei province in China to the rest of the country, then to most of the world. To anticipate future trends in the development of the epidemic, we explore here, based on public records of infected persons how variation in the virus tropism could end up in different patterns, warranting specific way to handle the epidemic. MethodsWe use a compartmental model to describe the evolution of an individual through several possible states: susceptible, infected, alternative infection, detected and removed. We fit the parameters of the model to the existing data taking into account significant quarantine changes where necessary. ResultsThe model indicates that Wuhan quarantine measures were effective but that alternative virus forms and a second propagation route are compatible with available data. For Singapore and Shenzhen region the secondary route does not seem to be active yet and the epidemic size limited. ConclusionsThe alternative infection tropism (the gut tropism) and a secondary propagation route are validated hypotheses using a model fitted by the available data. Corresponding prevention measures that take into account both routes should be implemented to the benefit of epidemic control.
