Hepatic Steatosis Index and the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in China: Insights from a General Population-Based Cohort Study.

Purpose: In the Chinese population, we looked at the relationship between the hepatic steatosis index (HSI) and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods: To evaluate the association between HSI and the risk of T2DM, Cox regression models were employed. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95 percent confidence intervals (CI) were computed. A stratified analysis with interaction testing was also carried out. Additionally, we evaluated the incremental predictive value of the HSI over the established risk factors using the C-statistic, the IDI, and the NRI. Results: During a median follow-up period of 2.97 years, 433 (1.97%) participants developed new-onset T2DM. The smoothing curve fit plot showed a positive correlation between HSI and the risk of T2DM. After adjusting for all noncollinear variables, the risk of T2DM increased by 62% for every 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in HSI. Subgroup analysis indicated that higher HSI levels were associated with a higher risk of T2DM in those aged < 40 years. The addition of HSI enhanced the reclassification and discrimination of established risk factors, with an IDI of 0.027 and an NRI of 0.348 (both P < 0.001). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that an elevated HSI is substantially associated with a greater risk of T2DM in the Chinese population. HSI has the potential to be an available and supplementary monitoring method for the management of T2DM risk stratification in the Chinese population.

Establishment and validation of a nomogram that predicts the risk of type 2 diabetes in obese patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a longitudinal observational study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to establish and validate a nomogram for better assessment of the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in obese patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) based on independent predictors. METHODS: Of 1820 eligible participants from the NAGALA cohort enrolled in the study. Multivariate Cox regression was employed to construct the nomogram. The performance was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), C-index, calibration curve, decision curve analysis, and Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS: Five predictors were selected from 17 variables. The AUC values at different time points all indicated that the model constructed with these five predictors had good predictive power. Decision curves indicated that the model could be applied to clinical applications. CONCLUSIONS: We established and validated a reasonable, economical nomogram for predicting the risk of T2D in obese NAFLD patients. This simple clinical tool can help with risk stratification and thus contribute to the development of effective prevention programs against T2D in obese patients with NAFLD.

Dose-Response Associations of Metabolic Score for Insulin Resistance Index with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease among a Nonobese Chinese Population: Retrospective Evidence from a Population-Based Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: This study is aimed at investigating the association between the metabolic score for insulin resistance (METS-IR) index and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in the nonobese population and its predictive value. METHODS: 10730 nonobese subjects were selected from longitudinal cohort research conducted from January 2010 to December 2014. Cox proportional hazards models were employed to assess the relationship between METS-IR and new-onset NAFLD. Generalized additive models were used to identify nonlinear relationships. In addition, we performed subgroup analyses and interaction tests. The time-dependent receiver operating curve (ROC) and area under the ROC (AUC) were utilized to measure the discriminatory ability of METS-IR for new-onset NAFLD. Beyond clinical risk factors, the incremental predictive value of METS-IR was appraised using integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), C-index, and net reclassification index (NRI). RESULTS: Over a median period of 804.50 days of follow-up, 1859 (17.33%) participants had a new onset of NAFLD. After adjusting for confounders, the HR for new-onset NAFLD in the Q4 group was 6.40 compared with the Q1 group. When METS-IR was considered a continuous variable, the risk of NAFLD increased by 34% for every 1 SD increase in METS-IR. The smoothing curve shows the dose-response relationship between METS-IR and the presence of new-onset NAFLD. Using a two-piecewise linear regression model, we derived a METS-IR inflection point of 36. HRs were 1.31 on the left side of the inflection point and 1.04 on the right side of the inflection point (log-likelihood ratio test, P < 0.001). Subgroup analyses and interaction tests revealed an interaction between gender and SBP in the association between METS-IR and new-onset NAFLD. In the subgroup analysis of gender and SBP, we observed a higher risk of new-onset NAFLD in men and in those with abnormal SBP levels. We evaluated the ability of METS-IR to identify new-onset NAFLD at different time points. The AUCs at 1, 2, 3, and 4 years were 0.784, 0.756, 0.758, and 0.752, respectively, which represent good discrimination of new-onset NAFLD. The addition of METS-IR greatly improved the reclassification and differentiation of clinical risk factors, with an NRI of 0.276 and an IDI of 0.068. In addition, the addition of METS-IR increased the C-index from 0.719 to 0.771. CONCLUSION: In a nonobese Chinese population, elevated METS-IR was independently associated with an enhanced risk of NAFLD development and a dose-response relationship existed. In addition, METS-IR might be a reliable indicator for screening individuals at risk for early NAFLD, especially in nonobese populations.

Nonlinear Relationship Between Chinese Visceral Adiposity Index and New-Onset Myocardial Infarction in Patients with Hypertension and Obstructive Sleep Apnoea: Insights from a Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: We aimed to investigate the relationship between the Chinese visceral adiposity index (CVAI) and the risk of new-onset myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with hypertension and obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) and to inspect possible modifiers of the effect. METHODS: The Cox regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between baseline CVAI and risk of new-onset MI. A generalized additive model was used to identify the nonlinear relationship. Besides, we conducted subgroup analyses and interaction tests. RESULTS: A total of 2177 patients with hypertension and OSA undergoing polysomnography were enrolled in this study. During a median follow-up period of 87 months, 82 participants developed new-onset MI. Overall, CVAI was positively related to the risk of new-onset MI (per 1 SD increase; HR = 1.54, 95% CI: 1.28-1.85). In multivariable-adjusted models, the risk of new-onset MI increased with quartiles of CVAI, with an HR of 3.64 (95% CI: 1.94-6.83) for quartile 4 compared with quartile 1. The generalized additive model and smoothed curve fit revealed a nonlinear relationship between CVAI and risk of new-onset MI with an inflection point of approximately 112. None of the stratification variables had a significant effect on the relationship between CVAI and new-onset MI. Similar outcomes were observed in the sensitivity analysis. The addition of CVAI significantly improved reclassification and discrimination over the conventional model, with a category-free NRI of 0.132 (95% CI 0.021 to 0.236, P = 0.021) and an IDI of 0.012 (95% CI 0.005 to 0.023, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated a nonlinear relationship between CVAI and the risk of new-onset MI in patients with hypertension and OSA. Higher CVAI was significantly associated with the risk of new-onset MI when CVAI was ≥112.