Limited value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and serum creatinine as point-of-care biomarkers of disease severity and infection mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: In hospitalized COVID-19, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and serum creatinine is sometimes measured under assumption they predict disease severity and mortality. We determined the potential value of NLR and serum creatinine as predictors of disease severity and mortality in COVID-19. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of COVID-19 patients admitted to premier COVID-19 treatment hospitals in Ethiopia. Predictive capability of biomarkers in progression and prognosis of COVID-19 was analyzed using receiver operating characteristics. Survival of COVID-19 patients with different biomarker levels was computed. Logistic regression assessed associations between disease severity and mortality on NLR and serum creatinine adjusted for odds ratio (AOR). RESULTS: The study enrolled 126 adults with severe (n = 68) or mild/moderate (n = 58) COVID-19, with median age 50 [interquartile range (IQR 20-86)]; 57.1% males. The NLR value was significantly higher in severe cases [6.68 (IQR 3.03-12.21)] compared to the mild/moderate [3.23 (IQR 2.09-5.39)], with the NLR value markedly associated with disease severity (p<0.001). Mortality was higher in severe cases [13 (19.1%)] compared to mild/moderate cases [2 (3.4%)] (p = 0.007). The NLR value was significantly higher in non-survivors [15.17 (IQR 5.13-22.5)] compared to survivors [4.26 (IQR 2.40-7.90)] (p = 0.002). Serum creatinine was significantly elevated in severe cases [34 (50%)] compared with mild/moderate [11 (19%)] (p<0.001). Disease severity [AOR 6.58, 95%CI (1.29-33.56), p = 0.023] and NLR [AOR 1.07, 95%CI (1.02-1.12), p = 0.004)] might be associated with death. NLR had a sensitivity and specificity of 69.1% and 60.3% as predictor of disease severity (cut-off >4.08), and 86.7% and 55.9% as prognostic marker of mortality (cut-off >4.63). CONCLUSION: In COVID-19, NLR is a biomarker with only modest accuracy for predicting disease severity and mortality. Still, patients with NLR >4.63 are more likely to die. Monitoring of this biomarker at the earliest stage of the disease may predict outcome. Additionally, high creatinine seems related to disease severity and mortality.

Inflammatory mediators profile in patients hospitalized with COVID-19: A comparative study.

Abnormal inflammatory mediator concentrations during SARS-CoV-2 infection may represent disease severity. We aimed to assess plasma inflammatory mediator concentrations in patients with SARS-CoV-2 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. In this study, 260 adults: 126 hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 sorted into severity groups: severe (n=68) and mild or moderate (n=58), and 134 healthy controls were enrolled. We quantified 39 plasma inflammatory mediators using multiplex ELISA. Spearman rank correlation and Mann-Whitney U test were used to identify mechanistically coupled inflammatory mediators and compare disease severity. Compared to healthy controls, patients with COVID-19 had significantly higher levels of interleukins 1α, 2, 6, 7, 8, 10 and 15, C-reactive protein (CRP), serum amyloid A (SAA), intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (ICAM-1), vascular cell adhesion protein 1 (VCAM-1), IFN-γ-inducible protein-10 (IP-10, CXCL10), macrophage inflammatory protein-1 alpha (MIP-1α, CCL3), eotaxin-3 (CCL26), interferon-gamma (IFN-γ), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF), placental growth factor (PlGF), and fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (Flt-1). Patients with severe COVID-19 had higher IL-10 and lower macrophage-derived chemokine (MDC, CCL22) compared to the mild or moderate group (P<0.05). In the receiver operating characteristic curve, SAA, IL-6 and CRP showed strong sensitivity and specificity in predicting the severity and prognosis of COVID-19. Greater age and higher CRP had a significant association with disease severity (P<0.05). Our findings reveal that CRP, SAA, VCAM-1, CXCL10, CCL22 and IL-10 levels are promising biomarkers for COVID-19 disease severity, suggesting that plasma inflammatory mediators could be used as warning indicators of COVID-19 severity, aid in COVID-19 prognosis and treatment.