Parasite prevalence increases with temperature in an avian metapopulation in northern Norway.

Climate and weather conditions may have substantial effects on the ecology of both parasites and hosts in natural populations. The strength and shape of the effects of weather on parasites and hosts are likely to change as global warming affects local climate. These changes may in turn alter fundamental elements of parasite-host dynamics. We explored the influence of temperature and precipitation on parasite prevalence in a metapopulation of avian hosts in northern Norway. We also investigated if annual change in parasite prevalence was related to winter climate, as described by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We found that parasite prevalence increased with temperature within-years and decreased slightly with increasing precipitation. We also found that a mild winter (positive winter NAO index) was associated with higher mean parasite prevalence the following year. Our results indicate that both local and large scale weather conditions may affect the proportion of hosts that become infected by parasites in natural populations. Understanding the effect of climate and weather on parasite-host relationships in natural populations is vital in order to predict the full consequence of global warming.

Spatial variation in senescence rates in a bird metapopulation.

Investigating factors which affect the decline in survival with age, i.e. actuarial senescence, is important in order to understand how demographic rates vary in wild populations. Although the evidence for the occurrence of actuarial senescence in wild populations is growing, very few studies have compared actuarial senescence rates between wild populations of the same species. We used data from a long-time study of demography of house sparrows (Passer domesticus) to investigate differences in rates of actuarial senescence between habitats and sub-populations. We also investigated whether rates of actuarial senescence differed between males and females. We found that rates of actuarial senescence showed large spatial variation. We also found that the onset of actuarial senescence varied between sub-populations. However, these differences were not significantly explained by a general difference in habitat type. We also found no significant difference in actuarial senescence rates between males and females. This study shows that senescence rates in natural populations may vary significantly between sub-populations and that failing to account for such differences may give a biased estimate of senescence rates of a species.

Sexual variation in heritability and genetic correlations of morphological traits in house sparrow (Passer domesticus).

Estimates of genetic components are important for our understanding of how individual characteristics are transferred between generations. We show that the level of heritability varies between 0.12 and 0.68 in six morphological traits in house sparrows (Passer domesticus L.) in northern Norway. Positive and negative genetic correlations were present among traits, suggesting evolutionary constraints on the evolution of some of these characters. A sexual difference in the amount of heritable genetic variation was found in tarsus length, wing length, bill depth and body condition index, with generally higher heritability in females. In addition, the structure of the genetic variance-covariance matrix for the traits differed between the sexes. Genetic correlations between males and females for the morphological traits were however large and not significantly different from one, indicating that sex-specific responses to selection will be influenced by intersexual differences in selection differentials. Despite this, some traits had heritability above 0.1 in females, even after conditioning on the additive genetic covariance between sexes and the additive genetic variances in males. Moreover, a meta-analysis indicated that higher heritability in females than in males may be common in birds. Thus, this indicates sexual differences in the genetic architecture of birds. Consequently, as in house sparrows, the evolutionary responses to selection will often be larger in females than males. Hence, our results suggest that sex-specific additive genetic variances and covariances, although ignored in most studies, should be included when making predictions of evolutionary changes from standard quantitative genetic models.

Effects of releasing maladapted individuals: a demographic-evolutionary model.

A model of the joint dynamics of change in population size N and evolution in a quantitative trait z, as a result of a general form of density dependence, local stabilizing selection, and immigration of individuals deviating from the local optimum, is analyzed. For weak selection and migration, a reduction in total equilibrium population size below the initial level without immigration, K, is shown to occur if the immigrants deviates more than square root of 8 = 2.83 genetic standard deviations from the optimum and if the rate of migration m is sufficiently large relative to the strength of stabilizing selection s. For the Lotka-Volterra form of density dependence, two additional equilibria are shown to exist below K, provided that the strength of selection is large relative to the strength of density dependence. Reintroduction of an initially extinct population is possible if the immigrants are not too maladapted and if the genetic variance is sufficiently large. For a simplified version of the model corresponding to competition between similar species or different haplotypes, the equilibrium population size is always exactly at K if m < Ksz1(2) and is above K otherwise, which shows the importance of including recombination in the model.

Population dynamical consequences of climate change for a small temperate songbird.

Predicting the effects of an expected climatic change requires estimates and modeling of stochastic factors as well as density-dependent effects in the population dynamics. In a population of a small songbird, the dipper (Cinclus cinclus), environmental stochasticity and density dependence both influenced the population growth rate. About half of the environmental variance was explained by variation in mean winter temperature. Including these results in a stochastic model shows that an expected change in climate will strongly affect the dynamics of the population, leading to a nonlinear increase in the carrying capacity and in the expected mean population size.

Quantitative genetic models for the balance between migration and stabilizing selection.

The evolution of a quantitative trait subject to stabilizing selection and immigration, with the immigrants deviating from the local optimum, is considered under a number of different models of the underlying genetic basis of the trait. By comparing exact predictions under the infinitesimal model obtained using numerical methods with predictions of a simplified approximate model based on ignoring linkage disequilibrium, the increase in the expressed genetic variance as a result of linkage disequilibrium generated by migration is shown to be relatively small and negligible, provided that the genetic variance relative to the squared deviation of immigrants from the local optimum is sufficiently large or selection and migration is sufficiently weak. Deviation from normality is shown to be less important by comparing predictions of the infinitesimal model with a model presupposing normality. For a more realistic symmetric model, involving a finite number of loci only, no linkage and equal effects and frequencies across loci, additional changes in the genetic variance arise as a result of changes in underlying allele frequencies. Again, provided that the genetic variance relative to the squared deviation of the immigrants from the local optimum is small, the difference between the predictions of infinitesimal and the symmetric model are small unless the number of loci is very small. However, if the genetic variance relative to the squared deviation of the immigrants from the local optimum is large, or if selection and migration are strong, both linkage disequilibrium and changes in the genetic variance as a result of changes in underlying allele frequencies become important.

Statistical models of transitive and intransitive dominance structures.

We present an approach based on generalized linear models for analysing dominance data. First, dominance is defined as a parameter characterizing the relationship between two individuals, determining the expected number of successes of the first individual in disputes with the other. Second, models known from the literature of two different forms of transitivity are defined in terms of these parameters, and examples of different tests of these models are given. Third, a new model is developed where the traits of individuals involved in the dominance interactions are included as covariates. Finally, we show how two forms of intransitive models of dominance structures can be constructed by including a certain interaction term between the trait variables, and terms taking into account the effect of relatedness between the individuals in the group. We reanalyse several data sets in the literature, and also discuss Appleby's method (1983, Anim. Behav., 31, 600-608), which is frequently used in analysis of dominance data. Copyright 1998 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Copyright 1998 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Analysis of genetic structure and dispersal patterns in a population of sea beet.

A model of the migration pattern in a metapopulation of sea beet (Beta vulgaris L. ssp. maritima), based on the continuous distributions of seed and pollen movements, is fitted to gene frequency data at 12 isozyme and RFLP loci by maximum likelihood by using an approximation of the simultaneous equilibrium distribution of the gene frequencies generated by the underlying multivariate stochastic process of genetic drift in the population. Several alternative restrictions of the general model are fitted to the data, including the island model, a model of complete isolation, and a model in which the seed and pollen dispersal variances are equal. Several likelihood ratio tests between these alternatives are performed, and median bias in the estimated parameters is corrected by using parametric bootstrapping. To assess the fit of the selected model, the predicted covariances are compared with covariances computed from the data directly. The dependency of estimated parameters on the ratio between effective and absolute subpopulation sizes, which is treated as a known parameter in the analysis, is also examined. Finally, we note that the data also appear to contain some information about this ratio.

Stochastic Dispersal Processes in Plant Populations

A dispersal model for airborne pollen based on assumptions about wind directionality, gravity, and a wind threshold at which pollen is taken by the wind is developed, using a three dimensional diffusion approximation. The bivariate probability distribution of pollen receipt by flowers at the same height as the pollen source is derived. Gravity, vertical random movements, and vegetation density turn out to have similar effects on this distribution. Maximum likelihood methods for estimating the combined parameters from data with multiple point or continuous pollen sources, and one or more plant varieties, are developed. Using an example data set from the literature, it is shown that our model gives a better fit than more traditional descriptive dispersal models of the form e-ar b. We also show that estimates of important properties of the dispersal distribution, such as the variances, become considerably smaller using our model than for the more traditional models. Finally, we discuss potential extensions and evolutionary implications of these types of models. Copyright 1997 Academic Press

Inferring patterns of migration from gene frequencies under equilibrium conditions.

A new maximum likelihood method to simultaneously estimate the parameters of any migration pattern from gene frequencies in stochastic equilibrium is developed, based on a model of multivariate genetic drift in a subdivided population. Motivated by simulations of this process in the simplified case of two subpopulations, problems related to the nuisance parameter q, the equilibrium gene frequency, are eliminated by conditioning on the observed mean gene frequency. The covariance matrix of this conditional distribution is calculated by constructing an abstract process that mimics the behavior of the original process in the subspace of interest. The approximation holds as long as there is limited differentiation between subpopulations. The bias and variance of estimates of long-range and short-range migration in a finite stepping stone model are evaluated by fitting the model to simulated data with known values of the parameters. Possible ecological extensions of the model are discussed.