Assessment of Radiological Hazard of Radioactive Waste Using Effective or Organ Doses: How This May Affect Final Waste Disposal.

ABSTRACT: The radiological hazard of spent nuclear fuel and radioactive waste slows down further development of nuclear energy systems. The authors evaluate timescales required to reduce the radiological hazard of accumulated waste to the reference level of natural uranium that had been consumed by the nuclear energy system. The estimate of this time scale depends on the radiological hazard metric used in the calculations. In this study, two metrics are compared: (1) the committed effective dose based on ICRP Publication 72 and (2) the lifetime radiation risk calculated with use of organ doses and recent radiation risk models recommended by ICRP. The effective dose of the waste reaches the reference level 300 y after the accumulation of waste, while lifetime attributable risk of waste converges to natural uranium in 100 y. Thus, the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) metric is more appropriate to estimate the time requirements for radioactive waste storage and disposal. The effective dose metric significantly overestimates this timescale as it is not intended for quantifying radiation-related risks.

Evaluation of Migration Radiological Equivalence for Dual Component Nuclear Waste in a Deep Geological Repository.

ABSTRACT: The paper is concerned with the issue of achieving the radiological equivalence (the equivalence of radiation risks) of radioactive waste of nuclear reactors and corresponding mass of natural uranium, taking into account the different migration ability of radionuclides in geological formations and soil. This migration radiological equivalence is being investigated for the deep burial of radioactive waste in the case of the development of a two-component nuclear power system with the concurrent use of thermal neutron reactors and fast neutron reactors. Calculations were performed of radiation doses and radiation risks of cancer death arising from consumption of drinking water from a well above a disposal site. The radiation risk relating to a two-component nuclear power system is lower than that from natural uranium; i.e., after reaching the radiological equivalence (100 y of storage) over the timescale of 109 y, the principle of migration radiological equivalence is satisfied. It would take 106 y after radioactive waste disposal to reach the migration radiological equivalence if only thermal reactors were operated. As regards consumption of well drinking water, the radiation risk does not exceed 10-5 y-1 for a two-component nuclear power system, while being 10-3 y-1 (socially unacceptable level) for a power system using only thermal reactors. Radionuclides 241Am, 239Pu, and 240Pu in drinking water make the main contribution to the doses and radiation risks of people for 104 y after the disposal of radioactive waste.

Relationship between follow-up periods and the low-dose ranges with statistically significant radiation-induced risk of all solid cancers in the Russian cohort of Chernobyl emergency workers.

Radiation-induced risks for all solid cancer incidence and mortality were studied in the cohort of Russian Chernobyl emergency workers. The cohort included 69,440 persons with documented individual radiation dose accrued over the time of working in the Chernobyl zone. The mean age at entry into the zone of recovery operations was 33.9 years and accumulated radiation dose was 132.9 mGy. A total of 6981 solid cancer incident cases and 4272 deaths occurred in this cohort from 1992 to 2017. Three follow-up periods were studied: 1992-2009, 1992-2013, and 1992-2017. For each follow-up period, the lowest dose range with statistically significant (p < 0.05) radiation-induced risk of all solid cancer incidence and mortality were obtained. For the incidence of all solid cancer during the follow-up period 1992-2009, this lowest dose range was estimated to be 0-250 mGy with an excess relative risk per dose of ERR Gy-1 = 0.51 and 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.02; 1.05) Gy-1. For the period 1992-2013, the lowest dose range was 0-175 mGy with ERR Gy-1 = 0.85 (95% CI 0.03; 1.78), while for the whole follow-up period 1992-2017, it was 0-175 mGy with ERR Gy-1 = 0.81 (95% CI 0.08; 1.62). For mortality from all solid cancers during the follow-up period 1992-2009, the lowest dose range with statistically significant radiation-induced risk was estimated to be 0-225 mGy with ERR Gy-1 = 1.07 (95% CI 0.31; 0.97). For the period 1992-2013, the lowest dose range was 0-225 mGy with ERR Gy-1 = 0.86 (95% CI 0.23; 1.58), while for the whole follow-up period 1992-2017, the lowest dose range was 0-200 mGy with ERR Gy-1 = 0.82 (95% CI 0.10; 1.65). Thus, it was found that the minimal level of significant exposure (Dmin), for which a statistically significant radiation-induced risk of all solid cancers was obtained for Russian emergency workers (with individual doses of 0 - Dmin), decreases with increasing duration of cohort observation, both for cancer incidence and mortality.

CLINICAL AND DOSIMETRIC INFORMATION TO SUPPORT LONG-TERM COHORT STUDY OF CHERNOBYL CLEAN-UP WORKERS IN RUSSIA.

The article describes the activities of the Russian National Radiation-Epidemiological Registry (NRER) as the unified federal information system for research and management of individual medical and dosimetry data of people exposed to radiation as a result of the Chernobyl accident and other radiological events. The NRER was created for long-term registration of lifetime changes in the health status of the registered people. We present medical and dosimetry data management process, which is carried out in compliance with approved protocols. The scope and content of the information to be collected from external resources are defined in the documents approved by the Russian Ministry of Health. As of 2017 reporting year, the NRER contains medical and dosimetry information on 205 044 clean-up workers of the Chernobyl accident (liquidators), collected during the follow-up period from 1986 to 2016. Using special software for management of data from long-term studies of the Russian cohort of Chernobyl liquidators NRER ensures high quality of radiation-epidemiological information. The results of research activities of the NRER make great contribution to understanding biological and health effects of low-level radiation, molecular mechanisms of the effects, development of actions to early diagnostic of radiation-related diseases to respond to the needs of the affected population while minimizing unnecessary anxiety, improvement of targeting treatments delivery to exposed people at high risk, development of measures to reduce health risks from medical radiological procedures. During the post-Chernobyl period, new methods for estimating radiation doses were developed, some of them can be used for express estimation of radiation dose in the event of radiological emergency.

Radiation Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases in the Cohort of Russian Emergency Workers of the Chernobyl Accident.

This paper continues a series of publications that analyze the impact of radiation on incidence of circulatory system diseases in the cohort of Russian recovery operation workers (liquidators) and presents the results of the analysis of cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence. The studied cohort consists of 53,772 liquidators who arrived in the Chernobyl accident zone within the first year after the accident (26 April 1986 to 26 April 1987). The individual doses varied from 0.0001 Gy to 1.42 Gy, and the mean external whole body dose in the cohort was 0.161 Gy. A total of 27,456 cases of CVD were diagnosed during the follow-up period 1986-2012 as a result of annual health examinations. A Poisson regression model was applied to estimate radiation risks and other risk factors associated with CVD. The following factors were identified as risk factors for CVD: the dose, duration of the liquidators' work in the Chernobyl zone, and concomitant diseases (diabetes mellitus, hypertension, overweight, and alcohol dependence). The baseline incidence of CVD is statistically significantly (p < 0.001) associated with all studied concomitant diseases. The incidence of CVD has revealed a statistically significant dose response with the lack of a latent period and with the average ERR Gy = 0.47, 95% CI = 0.31, 0.63, p < 0.001. Radiation risks of CVD statistically significantly (p = 0.01) varied with the duration of liquidators' stay in the Chernobyl zone; for those who stayed in the Chernobyl zone less than 6 wk, ERR/Gy = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.53; 1.08, p < 0.001.

[Non-Parametric Analysis of Radiation Risks of Mortality among Chernobyl Clean-Up Workers].

Analysis of the relationship between dose and mortality from cancer and circulation diseases in the cohort of Chernobyl clean-up workers based on the data from the National Radiation and Epidemiological Registry was performed. Medical and dosimetry information on the clean-up workers, males, who got radiation doses from April 26, 1986 to April 26, 1987, which was accumulated from 1992 to 2012, was used for the analysis. The total size of the cohort was 42929 people, 12731 deaths were registered in the cohort, among them 1893 deaths from solid cancers and 5230 deaths were from circulation diseases. An average age of the workers was 39 years in 1992 and the mean dose was 164 mGy. The dose-effect relationship was estimated with the use of non-parametric analysis of survival with regard to concurrence of risks of mortality. The risks were estimated in 6 dose groups of similar size (1-70, 70-130, 130-190, 190-210, 210-230 and.230-1000 mGy). The group "1-70 mGy" was used as control. Estimated dose-effect relationship related to cancers and circulation diseases is described approximately with a linear model, coefficient of determination (the proportion of variability explained by the linear model) for cancers was 23-25% and for circulation diseases - 2-13%. The slope coefficient of the dose-effect relationship normalized to 1 Gy for the ratio of risks for cancers in the linear model was 0.47 (95% CI: -0.77, 1.71), and for circulation diseases it was 0.22 (95% CI: -0.58, 1.02). Risks coefficient (slope coefficient of excess mortality at a dose of 1 Gy) for solid cancers was 1.94 (95% CI: - 3.10, 7.00) x 10(-2) and for circulation diseases it was 0.67 (95% CI: -9.61, 11.00) x 10(-2). 137 deaths from radiation-induced cancers and 47 deaths from circulation diseases were registered during a follow up period.

Radiation-epidemiological Study of Cerebrovascular Diseases in the Cohort of Russian Recovery Operation Workers of the Chernobyl Accident.

The paper presents an analysis of the incidence of cerebrovascular diseases (CeVD) in the cohort of Russian workers involved in recovery tasks after the Chernobyl accident. The studied cohort consists of 53,772 recovery operation workers (liquidators) who arrived in the zone of the Chernobyl accident within the first year after this accident (26 April 1986-26 April 1987). The mean external whole body dose in the cohort was 0.161 Gy, while individual doses varied from 0.0001 Gy to 1.42 Gy. During the follow-up period 1986-2012, a total of 23,264 cases of CeVD were diagnosed as a result of annual health examinations. A Poisson regression model was applied for estimation of radiation risks and for an assessment of other risk factors of CeVD. The following factors were considered as risk factors for CeVD: the dose, duration of the liquidators' work in the Chernobyl zone, and the concomitant diseases (hypertension, ischemic heart disease, atherosclerosis, and diabetes). The baseline incidence of CeVD is statistically significantly (p < 0.001) associated with all studied concomitant diseases. The incidence of CeVD has revealed a statistically significant dose response with the lack of a latent period and with the average ERR/Gy = 0.45, 95% CI: (0.28, 0.62), p < 0.001. Radiation risks of CeVD statistically significantly (p = 0.03) varied with the duration of liquidators' stay in the Chernobyl zone; for those who stayed in the Chernobyl zone less than 6 wk, ERR/Gy = 0.64, 95% CI = (0.38; 0.93), p < 0.001. Among studied concomitant diseases, diabetes mellitus statistically significantly (p = 0.002) increases the radiation risk of CeVD: for liquidators with diagnosed diabetes, ERR/Gy = 1.29.

Incidence and mortality of solid cancer among emergency workers of the Chernobyl accident: assessment of radiation risks for the follow-up period of 1992-2009.

This paper presents the results of a retrospective cohort study of cancer incidence and mortality among emergency workers of the Chernobyl accident, for the follow-up period 1992-2009. The cohort selected for analysis consists of 67,568 emergency workers who worked in the Chernobyl exclusion zone in 1986-1987. External radiation whole-body absorbed dose varied from 0.0001 gray (Gy) to 1.24 Gy, with a median of 0.102 Gy. Over the follow-up period 1992-2009, a total of 4,002 solid cancers of different sites were identified as the result of annual compulsory health examination, and a total of 2,442 deaths from all solid cancers in the study cohort were reported. Poisson regression was applied for the analysis of cancer incidence and mortality. The analysis of the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) has shown a statistically significant increase in cancer incidence in the cohort as compared with baseline cancer incidence among males of Russia. The average excess over the entire follow-up period is 18 % [SIR = 1.18, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.15; 1.22]. In contrast, however, no increase in the mortality from all cancers among the emergency workers as compared to the baseline mortality in Russian men was found. Values of excess relative risk of cancer incidence and mortality per 1 Gy (ERR Gy(-1)) are 0.47 (95 % CI 0.03; 0.96, p value = 0.034) and 0.58 (95 % CI 0.002; 1.25, p value = 0.049), respectively. These values are statistically significant.

Radiation-epidemiological studies of thyroid cancer incidence in Russia after the Chernobyl accident (estimation of radiation risks, 1991-2008 follow-up period).

This study presents an analysis of the thyroid cancer incidence in the population of the most contaminated territories of Bryansk, Kaluga, Oryol and Tula oblasts affected by the Chernobyl accident. The follow-up period is 1991-2008, and the cohort size is 309 130 people. For that period 978 thyroid cancer cases were detected. The excess relative risk per 1 Gy (ERR/Gy) is found to be statistically significant for children and adolescents (0-17 y of age) at the time of the Chernobyl accident (ERR/Gy=3.22; 95 % confidence interval (1.56; 5.81). In boys, the ERR/Gy was higher than in girls -6.54 and 2.24, respectively. A statistically significant decrease in ERR/Gy with time since exposure, by a factor of 0.37 per 10 y, was observed for the whole cohort and for boys separately, but not for girls. No radiation risks of a thyroid cancer among people of 18 y of age at exposure and older were found.

Leukemia incidence in the Russian cohort of Chernobyl emergency workers.

Of all potentially radiogenic cancers, leukemia, a type of cancer of the blood, has the highest risk attributable to ionizing radiation. Despite this, the quantitative estimation of radiation risk of a leukemia demands studying very large exposed cohorts, because of the very low level of this disease in unexposed populations and because of the tendency for its radiation risk to decrease with time. At present, the Japanese cohort of atomic bomb survivors is still the primary source of data that allows analysis of radiation-induced leukemia and the underlying dose-response relationship. The second large cohort that would allow to study radiation-induced leukemia is comprised of individuals who were exposed due to the accident of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in 1986. The objective of the present study was to estimate radiation risks of leukemia incidence among the Russian cohort of Chernobyl emergency workers, for different time periods after the accident. Twenty-five years after the Chernobyl accident and based on the results of the present study, one can conclude that the radiation risk of leukemia incidence derived from the Russian cohort of Chernobyl emergency workers is similar to that derived from the cohort of atomic bomb survivors: The time-averaged excess relative risk per Gray (ERR Gy(-1)) equals 4.98 for the Russian cohort and 3.9 for the life span study (LSS) cohort; excess absolute risk decreases with time after exposure at an annual rate of 9% for the Russian cohort, and of 6.5% for the LSS cohort. Thus, the excess in risk of leukemia incidence in a population due to a single exposure is restricted in time after exposure by the period of about 15 years.

[Mortality among the liquidators of the Chernobyl accident: dose dependences and groups of the potential risk].

Dynamics of the mortality and the mortality radiation risks among male emergency workers of 1986-1987 years of entrance to the Chernobyl zone is analyzed. The average dose of external gamma-exposure for this cohort equals 128 mGy. The size of the cohort at the beginning of the follow-up in 1992 was 47820 persons. For the follow-up period 1992-2006 statistically significant radiation risks of death rates have been estimated: for the mortality from all causes, the excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) equals 0.42 with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) (0.14-0.72); for the mortality from solid cancers ERR/Gy = 0.74, 95% CI (0.03-1.76); and for the mortality from the circulatory system diseases ERR/Gy = 1.01, 95% CI (0.51-1.57). Based on these estimates the risk groups were ranked among all Russian emergency workers (160 thousand persons): the group of the potential radiation risk with doses more than 150 mGy (33488 persons) and the group of the high radiation risk with doses more than 240 mGy (6054 persons).

Latent period in induction of radiogenic solid tumors in the cohort of emergency workers.

The paper presents estimates for the latent period of the induction of radiogenic solid cancers among Chernobyl emergency workers (males) living in six central regions of Russia. The analysis is based on medical and dosimetry data gathered by the National Radiation and Epidemiological Registry over the time period from 1986 to 2005. The cohort includes 59,770 persons who stayed in the exposure zone (30-km zone around the Chernobyl nuclear power plant) in 1986-1987. There were 2,718 cases of solid tumors identified during the follow-up time in this cohort. The mean radiation dose in the cohort is 0.13 Gy. The radiation risk and latent period were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The excess relative risk per unit dose was found to be 0.96 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.3-1.7) and the minimum latent period for induction of solid tumors is 4.0 years (95% CI: 3.3-4.9).

Risk of thyroid cancer among Chernobyl emergency workers of Russia.

The presented paper deals with the thyroid cancer incidence in selected cohorts of emergency workers of Russia. In 1986-2003, a total of 87 cases of thyroid cancer were observed. Based on these data, a statistically significant increase in thyroid cancer incidence was found above the reference level for the male population of Russia, corresponding to a standardized incidence rate (SIR) of SIR = 3.47 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.80; 4.25]. The highest incidence rate (SIR = 6.62, 95% CI: 4.63; 9.09) was shown for those emergency workers who took part in the early recovery operations in April-July 1986. The estimated SIR value increases to 7.97 (95% CI: 5.24; 11.52) after allowing for a 10 years latent period of Chernobyl-related thyroid cancers. These results indicate that the exposure to incorporated (131)I was the major risk factor of thyroid cancer among Chernobyl emergency workers. No statistically significant relationship was found for the thyroid cancer incidence and external radiation dose.

[Thyroid cancer incidence among Chernobyl emergency workers: follow-up period 1986-2003].

A vast amount of research articles devoted to the increase in childhood thyroid cancer incidence in the most contaminated by radionuclides territories of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine affected by the Chernobyl accident were published recent years. However, the amount of research studies of thyroid cancer incidence among the Chernobyl emergency workers (liquidators) is quite scanty. In the article results of the study of thyroid cancer incidence in the cohort of the Chernobyl liquidators (103427 persons) residing in 6 administrative regions of Russia (North-West, Volgo-Vyatsky, Central-Chernozemny, Povolzhsky, North-Caucasus and Urals) are described and discussed. For the period 1986-2003 eighty seven cases of thyroid cancer were detected in the cohort. Statistically significant excess of the incidence among liquidators over baseline incidence, SIR = 3.39 (95% CI: 2.73; 4.16), among men of Russia has been found. The highest thyroid cancer incidence (SIR = 6.49) was registered among liquidators who had been involved in mitigation works during April-July 1986. At the same time no statistically significant relationship between the incidence rate and external radiation dose, ERR = 1.68 (95% CI: -0.95; 6.46), was detected.

[Cancer morbidity and mortality among the liquidators of the Chernobyl accident: estimation of radiation risks].

The work focuses on the results of the analysis of the cancer incidence among the Chernobyl emergency workers residing in Russia during 1991-2001. The analysis is based on the data for the cohort of male emergency workers from 6 regions of Russia including 55718 persons with documented external radiation doses in the range of 0.001-0.3 Gy who worked within the 30-km zone in 1986-1987. The mean age at exposure for these persons was 34.8 years old and the mean external radiation dose 0.13 Gy. In this cohort 1370 cases of solid cancer were diagnosed. Three follow-up periods were considered: 1991-1995, 1996-2001 and 1991-2001. The second follow-up period was chosen to allow for a minimum latency period of 10 years. Risk assessments were performed for two control groups: the first control group ("external") represented incidence rates for corresponding ages in Russia in general and the second control group ("internal") consisted of emergency workers. The estimated standardized incidence ratio (SIR) is in good agreement with that of the control within 95% CI. The values of the excess relative risk per unit dose 1 Gy (ERR/Gy) for solid malignant neoplasms have been estimated to be 0.33 (95% CI: -0.39, 1.22) (internal control) for the follow-up period 1991-2001 and 0.19 (95% CI: -0.66, 1.27) for 1996-2001. The analysis of cancer morbidity was carried out for the cohort of 29003 emergency workers who took part in liquidation of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident from 26 April 1986 to 25 April 1987. It was shown that the excess relative risk of cancer deaths per unit dose 1 Sv (ERR/Sv) is equal to 1.52 (95% CI: 0.20, 2.85).

Radiation-epidemiological studies of thyroid cancer incidence among children and adolescents in the Bryansk oblast of Russia after the Chernobyl accident (1991-2001 follow-up period).

In this study, thyroid cancer incidence (follow-up period: 1991-2001) has been analyzed, including persons who were exposed as children at an age between 0 and 17 years and who are living in the Bryansk oblast, the worst contaminated area of Russia after the Chernobyl accident. According to the census of 1989, the population of this oblast comprises 375 thousand people. Thyroid doses from incorporated radioiodine isotopes -- both for the thyroid cancer cases and the study population -- were determined based on the official methodology approved by the Russian Scientific Commission on Radiation Protection. Between 1991 and 2001, a total of 199 thyroid cancer cases were diagnosed at cancer centers (the so-called oncological dispensaries) of the investigated regions. The performed analysis relies on medical and dosimetric information available from the Russian National Medical and Dosimetric Registry which was established after the Chernobyl accident. Diagnoses were confirmed histologically for 95% of the cases. The analysis described revealed statistically significant radiation risk only for those exposed as children at an age of 0-9 years. In this group, the standardized incidence ratio (the national incidence rate was used as a reference) in the considered time period is estimated to be 6.7 (5.1, 8.6 95%CI) and 14.6 (10.3, 20.2 95%CI) for girls and boys, respectively. The risk dependence on age at exposure has also been studied. It has been shown that the smaller the age the higher the risk. For girls whose age at exposure was 0-4 years, the excess relative risk per 1 Gy for the period 1991-2001 was 45.3 (5.2, 9,953 95%CI; with internal control) and 28.8 (4.3, 2,238 95%CI; with external control), respectively. For boys whose age at exposure was 0-9 years the corresponding excess relative risk per 1 Gy was 68.6 (10.0, 4,520 95%CI) and 177.4 (-276, 10(6) 95%CI), respectively. Dependence of radiation risk on time was studied, with the focus on two follow-up periods 1991-1996 and 1997-2001, respectively. In 1997-2001 the radiation risk is shown to decrease among girls, and increase among boys.

[The identification of potential radiation risk groups in case of chronical occupational exposure: individual cancer risks among the industrial firm "Maiak" personnel].

The draft new recommendations of the ICRP emphasize the need for transition from the collective dose to the dose matrix concept with optimization of the radiation protection system. In fact, this means assessment of the attributive (radiation-induced) risk at individual level with allowance for the dynamics of dose accumulation during the whole length of professional experience. The work provides assessments for high potential risk group from the "Mayak" personnel based on the dose matrix and using the UNSCEAR technique for assessing the attributive risk. It was found that about 2% of "Mayak" personnel subject to individual dosimetric monitoring in 2005 can be attributed to this group.