ABSTRACT
This paper presents the results of a study of the hazards of ground ignition and/or explosion when various small-calibre projectiles struck various solid materials placed on a test stand in environments at risk of ignition (fire) or explosion (ricochets and projectile penetration of obstacles). For projectile ricochetting tests, the following were used: an armour plate, concrete, sidewalk and granite slabs, etc., and various small-calibre projectiles: 7.62 × 51 mm SWISS PAP, 7.62 × 51T, 7.62 × 51 mm M80, 7.62 × 54R B-32, 7.62 × 54R LPS and .308 Win. Norma Ecostrike. Projectiles impacts were recorded with a high-speed camera (50,400 fps) and thermal cameras (660 fps) and (2615 fps). The ignition capability of solid flammable materials during projectile ricochetting was studied, and the temperatures and surface areas of isotherms were measured as a function of time. From the spherical distribution of thermal energy radiation in space, their volumes, masses of air occupying the studied area, masses of projectile disintegrating into fragments (after impact), thermal energies during projectile ricochetting, histograms of area temperatures and temperatures were calculated. This energy was compared with the minimum ignition energy of the selected gases and liquid vapours, and the ignition temperature were determined. The probabilities of some of the selected gases and liquid vapours which can ignite or cause an explosion were determined. The thermal energies of the 7.62 × 54R B-32 (3400-9500 J) and 7.62 × 51T (2000-3700 J) projectiles ricochetting on the Armox 600 plate was sufficient to ignite (explode) propane-butane gas. The thermal energy of 7.62 × 54R B-32 projectiles ricochets on the non-metallic components (800-1200 J) was several times lower than that of projectiles ricochets on an Armox 600 plate (3400-9500 J). This is due to the transfer of much of the kinetic energy to the crushing of these elements.
ABSTRACT
The aim of the study was to choose and validate the tool(s) to predict the number of hospitalized patients by testing three predictive algorithms: a linear regression model, Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model, and Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The study used data from the collection of data on inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) from the public database of the National Health Fund for the years 2009-2017, data recalculation taking into account the population of provinces and the country in particular years, and prediction making for the number of patients who would require hospitalization in 2017. The anticipated numbers were compared with real data and percentage prediction errors were calculated. Results of prediction for 2017 indicated the number of hospitalizations for Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) at 17 and 16 respectively per 100,000 persons and 72 per 100,000 persons for all IBD cases. The actual outcomes were 21 for both CD and UC (81% and 75% accuracy of prediction, respectively), and 99 for all IBD cases (73% accuracy). The prediction results do not differ significantly from the actual outcome, this means that the prediction tool (in the form of a linear regression) actually gives good results. Our study showed that the newly developed tool may be used to predict with good enough accuracy the number of patients hospitalized due to IBD in order to organize appropriate therapeutic resources.
