Towards better survival: Modeling drivers for daily mortality in Norwegian Atlantic salmon farming.

Mortality in the production of farmed salmonids is a major constraint to the sustainability of this form of animal husbandry. We have developed a model for the daily mortality in salmon farming over a full production cycle from stocking to harvest, considering different environmental and production factors. These factors included sea temperature, salinity, day within year, fish weight at stocking, stocking day, four types of lice treatments and the possible occurrence of pancreas disease (PD). We considered a generalized additive model following full production cycles, allowing for non-linear descriptions of how relevant factors relate to the daily mortality. We saw a high overall mortality rate immediately after stocking, which decreased the first three months in the cycle and thereafter increased. We found that the total mortality could be reduced by 21% if avoiding all lice treatments, and similarly reduced by 20% if no PD infections occurred. If avoiding jointly PD and all lice treatments, the accumulated mortality could be reduced by 34%. A single thermal or hydrogen peroxide treatment was associated with a mortality of around 1.6% and 1.3%, respectively. This modeling approach gave a unique opportunity to model how different factors interact on the overall global mortality and can easily be extended by other factors, such as additional fish diseases.

Mental Health and Disability Pension Onset: Changes in Consumption of Antianxiety and Hypnotic Drugs.

INTRODUCTION: In Norway, disability pension (DP) has been more prevalent over the later years, with mental disorders being a frequent cause. Previous analyses have questioned whether receiving DP is beneficial for mental health by considering changes in antidepressant drug consumption. To explore this further, we examined changes in antianxiety and hypnotic drug consumption following DP onset. METHODS: Based on national Norwegian register data, this retrospective study encompassed 8617 working-age individuals (25-50 years) who became DP during 2005 to 2013. We compared their benzodiazepines (BZD) and Z-hypnotic consumption 1 year pre- and postdisability pension onset. RESULTS: About 80% of the individuals did not change their altogether benzodiazepine/Z-hypnotic consumption. Among individuals with an initial consumption ≤1 defined daily dose (DDD), 18.9% increased their consumption to above 1 DDD. Individuals in the age-group 45 to 50 versus 24 to 34 years had a lower risk of dose escalation (odds ratio [OR], 0.756, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.601-0.957). Individuals who used Z-hypnotics only had a higher risk of dose escalation compared to the joint benzodiazepine/Z-hypnotic user group (OR, 1.594, 95%CI: 1.284-1.970). CONCLUSION: In general, we cannot see that DP is associated with changes in benzodiazepine/Z-hypnotic consumption, but younger users and individuals using Z-hypnotics only had a greater risk of dose escalation compared to the older users and users with combined BZD and Z-hypnotic use.

The antipsychotic agent quetiapine is increasingly not used as such: dispensed prescriptions in Norway 2004-2015.

PURPOSE: The antipsychotic agent quetiapine was introduced in Norway in 2003. We have assessed changes in dispensed prescriptions, including dosing, of quetiapine in Norway from 2004 to 2015. METHODS: Data on the sales of antipsychotics and antidepressants were drawn from the Norwegian Prescription Database. A total of 47,474 outpatients filled 195,622 prescriptions of quetiapine. Reimbursement codes, use of antipsychotics or antidepressants 12 months prior to the first prescription of quetiapine and estimated mean volume used measured as defined daily doses (DDDs) per day were used as proxies for diagnoses. We conducted a regression analysis with DDD per day as a function of possible explanatory variables. RESULTS: The number of users filling at least two prescriptions of quetiapine per year increased from 584 in 2004 to 8506 in 2015 and the mean dose declined from 1.58 DDD per day (SD 8.00) to 0.48 DDD per day (SD 2.27). The latter is much lower than recommended for treatment of psychoses. In 2015, 60.1% of the 8506 quetiapine users did not seek reimbursement for the treatment of a major psychiatric disorder and only 2.6% of the patients were prescribed 1 DDD or more per day and reimbursed in accordance with the drug's primary indication, psychosis. A reported diagnosis of psychosis was not associated with higher quetiapine doses. CONCLUSIONS: In 2015, the pattern of quetiapine dispensing in Norway most likely reflects predominant off-label use. This is unsettling considering poorly documented effects in non-psychotic disorders, profound side effects, significant toxicity and growing concern regarding abuse.

A 5-year follow-up study of users of benzodiazepine: starting with diazepam versus oxazepam.

BACKGROUND: Drug dependency may develop during long-term benzodiazepine use, indicated, for example, by dose escalation. The first benzodiazepine chosen may affect the risk of dose escalation. AIM: To detect possible differences in benzodiazepine use between new users of diazepam and oxazepam over time. DESIGN AND SETTING: This 5-year prescription database study included 19 747 new benzodiazepine users, inhabitants of Norway, aged 30-60 years, with first redemption for diazepam or oxazepam. METHOD: Individuals starting on diazepam versus oxazepam were analysed by logistic regression with sex, age, other drug redemptions, prescriber's specialty, household income, education level, type of work, and vocational rehabilitation support as background variables. Time to reach a daily average intake of ≥1 defined daily doses (DDD) over a 3-month period was analysed using a Cox proportional hazard regression model. RESULTS: New users of oxazepam had a higher risk for dose escalation compared with new users of diazepam. This was true even when accounting for differences in sociodemographic status and previous drug use (hazard ratio [HR] 1.33, 95% confidence interval = 1.17 to 1.51). CONCLUSION: Most doctors prescribed, according to recommendations, oxazepam to individuals they may have regarded as prone to and at risk of dependency. However, these individuals were at higher risk for dose escalation even when accounting for differences in sociodemographic status and previous drug use. Differences between the two user groups could be explained by different preferences for starting drug, DDD for oxazepam being possibly too low, and some unaccounted differences in illness.

Determination of safety margins for whole blood concentrations of alcohol and nineteen drugs in driving under the influence cases.

Legislative limits for driving under the influence of 20 non-alcohol drugs were introduced in Norway in February 2012. Per se limits corresponding to blood alcohol concentrations (BAC) of 0.2g/kg were established for 20 psychoactive drugs, and limits for graded sanctions corresponding to BACs of 0.5 and 1.2g/kg were determined for 13 of these drugs. This new legislation made it possible for the courts to make sentences based on the analytical results, similar to the situation for alcohol. To ensure that the reported concentration is as least as high as the true concentration, with a 99% safety level, safety margins had to be calculated for each of the substances. Diazepam, tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) and alcohol were used as model substances to establish a new model for estimating the safety margins. The model was compared with a previous used model established several years ago, by a similar yet much simpler model, and they were found to be in agreement. The measurement uncertainties depend on the standard batch used, the work list and the measurements' replicate. A Bayesian modelling approach was used to determine the parameters in the model, using a dataset of 4700 diazepam positive specimens and 5400 THC positive specimens. Different safety margins were considered for low and high concentration levels of diazepam (≤2µM (0.6mg/L) and >2µM) and THC (≤0.01µM (0.003mg/L) and >0.01µM). The safety margins were for diazepam 19.5% (≤2µM) and 34% (>2µM), for THC 19.5% (≤0.01µM) and 24.9% (>0.01µM). Concentration dependent safety margins for BAC were based on a dataset of 29500 alcohol positive specimens, and were in the range 10.4% (0.1g/kg) to 4.0% (4.0g/kg) at a 99% safety level. A simplified approach was used to establish safety margins for the compounds amphetamine, MDMA, methamphetamine, alprazolam, phenazepam, flunitrazepam, clonazepam, nitrazepam, oxazepam, buprenorphine, GHB, methadone, ketamine, cocaine, morphine, zolpidem and zopiclone. The safety margins for these drugs were in the range 34-41%.

Comparing Effects of Biologic Agents in Treating Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Multiple Treatment Comparison Regression Analysis.

Rheumatoid arthritis patients have been treated with disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs) and the newer biologic drugs. We sought to compare and rank the biologics with respect to efficacy. We performed a literature search identifying 54 publications encompassing 9 biologics. We conducted a multiple treatment comparison regression analysis letting the number experiencing a 50% improvement on the ACR score be dependent upon dose level and disease duration for assessing the comparable relative effect between biologics and placebo or DMARD. The analysis embraced all treatment and comparator arms over all publications. Hence, all measured effects of any biologic agent contributed to the comparison of all biologic agents relative to each other either given alone or combined with DMARD. We found the drug effect to be dependent on dose level, but not on disease duration, and the impact of a high versus low dose level was the same for all drugs (higher doses indicated a higher frequency of ACR50 scores). The ranking of the drugs when given without DMARD was certolizumab (ranked highest), etanercept, tocilizumab/ abatacept and adalimumab. The ranking of the drugs when given with DMARD was certolizumab (ranked highest), tocilizumab, anakinra/rituximab, golimumab/ infliximab/ abatacept, adalimumab/ etanercept [corrected]. Still, all drugs were effective. All biologic agents were effective compared to placebo, with certolizumab the most effective and adalimumab (without DMARD treatment) and adalimumab/ etanercept (combined with DMARD treatment) the least effective. The drugs were in general more effective, except for etanercept, when given together with DMARDs.

A worrying trend in weight-adjusted paediatric antibiotic use in a Norwegian tertiary care hospital.

AIM: The World Health Organization recommends the defined daily dose (DDD) as the standard unit of measurement for antibiotic use, but this is not applicable in children. We aimed to assess paediatric antibiotic use in a Norwegian tertiary care hospital using a novel weight-adjusted method. METHODS: We obtained antibiotic purchase data from the hospital pharmacy and administrative data for all admissions from 2002 to 2009 to the paediatric wards at Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet. Recommended daily doses per 100 kg days (RDDs/kg days) were calculated based on national guidelines for paediatric antibiotic use, length of stay and estimated weight for sex and age using national growth references. RESULTS: Total antibiotic use increased significantly from 51.8 to 65.5 RDDs/100 kg days. We found statistically significant annual increases in the consumption of carbapenems (18.0%), third-generation cephalosporins (6.0%) and imidazole derivatives (6.6%) and a considerable difference between total antibiotic use measured in RDDs/100 kg days and DDDs/100 bed days for neonates. CONCLUSION: Weight-adjusted antibiotic use provided a more meaningful description of the quantities of antibiotics consumed than DDDs/100 bed days, particularly for neonates. Total antibiotic use, use of meropenem, third-generation cephalosporins and imidazole derivatives increased significantly despite low prevalence of antibiotic-resistant pathogens.

[Dispensing of benzodiazepines and Z drugs by Norwegian pharmacies 2004-2011]. / Utlevering av benzodiazepiner og z-hypnotika fra norske apotek 2004-11.

BACKGROUND: In Norway, total sales of benzodiazepines and Z drugs (zopiclone and zolpidem) have increased since the mid-1990s. On the basis of data from the Norwegian Prescription Database, we have studied the choice of medications and patterns of use in various gender and age groups. MATERIAL AND METHOD: Numbers for redemptions of benzodiazepines and Z drugs in Norwegian pharmacies for the years 2004-2011 were collected from the Prescription Registry. Population figures were collected from Statistics Norway. Consumption was calculated by the number of DDDs (defined daily doses). RESULTS: Among those who were supplied with benzodiazepines or Z drugs, recipients of more than 2 DDDs per day (heavy users) accounted for a small group. We registered an extensive use of Z drugs among older women, many of whom were prescribed an amount corresponding to a regular daily use of 1-2 DDDs. The total prescription of alprazolam and nitrazepam/flunitrazepam was minor, but high dosages were not uncommon among those who were prescribed these drugs. Only a small proportion of the patients who were prescribed clonazepam received a reimbursable prescription. The prescribing of a number of benzodiazepines and Z drugs at the same time remains not uncommon. INTERPRETATION: Prescribing of Z drugs to the elderly, and to women in particular, may indicate that many people in this group are regular users of sedative hypnotics, which is contrary to the guidelines. A considerable proportion of the prescriptions for clonazepam are outside of the approved indications. Among the users of the drugs studied, only a small fraction were heavy users, but since the use is widespread, this represents a considerable number of individuals.

A 3-year survey quantifying the risk of dose escalation of benzodiazepines and congeners to identify risk factors to aid doctors to more rationale prescribing.

OBJECTIVES: This study investigated and quantified risk factors of dose escalation, as an indication of drug misuse and dependency of benzodiazepines and congeners, among presumably drug naïve patients in the Norwegian drug prescription database, observed over 3 years. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: Prescription database study. PARTICIPANTS: We defined an excessive user as one redeeming more than two defined daily doses per day in 3 months. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: We examined the risk of excessive use over time and the effect of risk factors through multistate logistic regression and scenarios. RESULTS: Most of the 81 945 patients had zopiclone or zolpidem as the initial drug (63.8%), followed by diazepam (25.3%), oxazepam (6.1%), nitrazepam/flunitrazepam (2.9%), hydroxyzine/buspirone (1.6%) and alprazolam (0.3%). At any time 23% redeemed prescriptions, about 34% did not redeem any prescriptions beyond any 3-month period and 0.9% ended up as excessive users. Patients previously using drugs, such as opioids, antialcohol or smoke cessation treatment, had a higher risk to become excessive users compared to patients who had not. Patients whose first prescription was for oxazepam or nitrazepam/flunitrazepam had a higher risk of becoming an excessive user compared to those who started with diazepam. A specialist in general practice as the first-time prescriber was associated with a lower risk compared to doctors without specialty. CONCLUSIONS: Most benzodiazepine use occurred according to guidelines. Still, some experienced dose escalation over time, and risk factors were previous use of other psychotropic drugs, long time use, choice of first-time drug and prescriber's specialty. This could incite doctors to have a cessation plan when issuing first-time prescriptions.

Antibiotic resistance in hospitals: a ward-specific random effect model in a low antibiotic consumption environment.

Association between previous antibiotic use and emergence of antibiotic resistance has been reported for several microorganisms. The relationship has been extensively studied, and although the causes of antibiotic resistance are multi-factorial, clear evidence of antibiotic use as a major risk factor exists. Most studies are carried out in countries with high consumption of antibiotics and corresponding high levels of antibiotic resistance, and currently, little is known whether and at what level the associations are detectable in a low antibiotic consumption environment. We conduct an ecological, retrospective study aimed at determining the impact of antibiotic consumption on antibiotic-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa in three hospitals in Norway, a country with low levels of antibiotic use. We construct a sophisticated statistical model to capture such low signals. To reduce noise, we conduct our study at hospital ward level. We propose a random effect Poisson or binomial regression model, with a reparametrisation that allows us to reduce the number of parameters. Inference is likelihood based. Through scenario simulation, we study the potential effects of reduced or increased antibiotic use. Results clearly indicate that the effects of consumption on resistance are present under conditions with relatively low use of antibiotic agents. This strengthens the recommendation on prudent use of antibiotics, even when consumption is relatively low.

A review and Bayesian meta-analysis of clinical efficacy and adverse effects of 4 atypical neuroleptic drugs compared with haloperidol and placebo.

AIMS: The objective of the study was to examine the efficacy and the degree of adverse effects connected with atypical neuroleptic drugs and haloperidol by using a previously described Bayesian statistical method that includes both direct and indirect comparisons simultaneously. METHODS: The authors used the results of 30 double-blind, randomized studies including comparisons of 4 atypical neuroleptics and haloperidol, head-to-head or against placebo. We calculated the response ratios for drugs against placebo and thereafter the relative response ratios for one drug against another. With uniform priors, we calculated and ranked the posterior estimates of response ratios for antipsychotic effect, weight gain, and occurrence of extrapyramidal symptoms. RESULTS: All second-generation neuroleptics analyzed are fairly effective with response ratios against placebo ranging between 1.55 (credibility interval, 1.36-1.76) and 1.99 (1.76-2.26), with clozapine being the most effective and aripiprazole the least effective among them. The risk of inducing weight gain is clearly very high for all 5 neuroleptic drugs compared with placebo with response ratios of 12.21 (10.22-15.05) for olanzapine and 11.28 (6.89-17.77) for clozapine. There is a clear increased risk of extrapyramidal adverse effects for haloperidol compared with placebo as the response ratio is 2.33 (2.03-2.49). The other drugs all have considerably less risk of extrapyramidal adverse effects. CONCLUSIONS: The 4 second-generation neuroleptics included in our meta-analysis show only small differences in overall efficacy, with clozapine being the most effective and aripiprazole the least effective among them. When the risk of adverse effects is analyzed, olanzapine and clozapine are afflicted with the highest risk of inducing weight gain and haloperidol with extrapyramidal symptoms. Even aripiprazole and risperidone, however, induce considerable weight gain compared with placebo but may be acceptable alternatives when tailoring drug treatment to the individual patient.

Does atenolol differ from other beta-adrenergic blockers?

BACKGROUND: A recent meta-analysis of drug effects in patients with hypertension claims that all beta-adrenergic blockers are equally effective but less so than other antihypertensive drugs. Published comparisons of the beta-adrenergic blocker atenolol and non-atenolol beta-adrenergic blockers indicate different effects on death rates, arrhythmias, peripheral vascular resistance and prognosis post myocardial infarction, all in disfavor of atenolol. In keeping with these findings, the data presented in the meta-analysis indicate that atenolol is less effective than the non-atenolol beta-adrenergic blockers both when compared with placebo and with other antihypertensive drugs. These findings were not, however, statistically significant. METHODS: We performed an additional analysis with a Bayesian statistical method in order to make further use of the published data. RESULTS: Our calculations on the clinical data in the meta-analysis showed 13% lower risk (risk ratio 0.87) of myocardial infarction among hypertensive patients taking non-atenolol beta-adrenergic blockers than among hypertensive patients taking atenolol. The 90 % credibility interval ranged from 0.75 to 0.99, thereby indicating statistical significance. The probability of at least 10% lower risk (risk ratio

Even more suicide attempts in clinical trials with paroxetine randomised against placebo.

BACKGROUND: Following our previous publication we have received critical comments to our conclusions as well as new data that are strengthening our findings. RESULTS: With the new data, 11 suicide attempts among patients on paroxetine against 1 among patients on placebo, we found with a Bayesian technique that the posterior probability that medication with paroxetine is associated with an increased intensity per year of a suicide attempt is from 0.98 to 0.99, depending on the prior. We found that the comment to our article by GSK representatives contained errors, misunderstanding and unwillingness to accept Bayesian principles in the analysis of clinical trials. CONCLUSION: We were in our previous publication, with preliminary data and a Bayesian approach, able to raise a concern that suicide attempts might be connected with the use of paroxetine. This suspicion has now been confirmed.

Suicide attempts in clinical trials with paroxetine randomised against placebo.

BACKGROUND: Inclusion of unpublished data on the effects of antidepressants on children has suggested unfavourable risk-benefit profiles for some of the drugs. Recent meta-analyses of studies on adults have indicated similar effects. We obtained unpublished data for paroxetine that have so far not been included in these analyses. METHODS: The documentation for drug registration contained 16 studies in which paroxetine had been randomised against placebo. We registered the number of suicides, suicide attempts and ideation. We corrected for duration of medication and placebo treatment and used a standard Bayesian statistical approach with varying priors. RESULTS: There were 7 suicide attempts in patients on the drug and 1 in a patient on placebo. We found that the probability of increased intensity of suicide attempts per year in adults taking paroxetine was 0.90 with a "pessimistic" prior, and somewhat less with two more neutral priors. CONCLUSION: Our findings support the results of recent meta-analyses. Patients and doctors should be warned that the increased suicidal activity observed in children and adolescents taking certain antidepressant drugs may also be present in adults.

Clinical efficacies of antihypertensive drugs.

OBJECTIVE: According to published data, the ability to prevent various hypertension-related events differs between the various antihypertensive drug groups. Although absolute drug effects differ among studies, relative drug effects could be considered constant. We therefore explored the possibility of drawing statistically valid conclusions about the differences in clinical efficacy between various drug groups by doing an overview of published data. DESIGN: We made a meta-analysis with a Bayesian fixed effect model in which we related the drug effects to the effects of placebo drugs. We selected 27 clinical trials from the literature according to specific criteria, including results from studies reporting the effects of the newer drugs when tested against diuretics and beta-blockers, and from studies in which diuretics and beta-blockers had been tested against placebo. We calculated the posterior probability distributions of the relative effects of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors vs calcium antagonists with three different endpoints: stroke, coronary disease and heart failure with point estimates of effects and with 95% credibility intervals. As an intermediate step in this procedure we obtained similar information about the effects of the three groups of active drugs, ACE inhibitors, calcium antagonists and diuretics or beta-blockers, tested against placebo. For coronary disease we also tested calcium antagonists against diuretics or beta-blockers. RESULTS: ACE inhibitors and calcium antagonists have an almost identical ability to prevent stroke in hypertensive individuals with a risk ratio (RR) of 1.04. On the other hand, calcium antagonists reduce coronary disease by only 8% relative to placebo. When ACE inhibitors and calcium antagonists are compared with the Bayesian method, the outcome is a 14% difference in favor of the ACE inhibitors to prevent coronary disease, with a credibility interval almost reaching identity. Nor do calcium antagonists do as well as diuretics or beta-blockers in this respect, RR = 1.12 with 95% credibility interval 1.01-1.24. All the tested drug groups have a profound preventive effect on the occurrence of heart failure when given to hypertensive patients, showing reductions of 42-54%. When ACE inhibitors are compared with calcium antagonists RR = 0.79, with a credibility interval 0.65-0.95. CONCLUSION: There is statistically an indisputable difference between ACE inhibitors and calcium antagonists in respect of effects on coronary disease and heart failure when treating hypertensive individuals, ACE inhibitors being more efficacious. There are no differences in the effect on stroke. Moreover, beta-blockers or diuretics are also superior to calcium antagonists in preventing coronary events.

[Bayesian thinking on its way into medical statistics?]. / Bayesiansk tenkemåte på vei inn i medisinsk statistikk?

BACKGROUND: Bayesian statistical analysis is a paradigm quite different from traditional statistical inference. We wanted to show the usefulness of this approach for some medical problems. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We started with Bayes equation as it is used for estimating the probability of illness based on a specific laboratory test. We also looked into a recent Cochrane report on mammography that accepted two studies as valid and five others as biased. In comparison we used examples of clinical trials from other areas that have been misinterpreted by the use of a traditional statistical approach only. RESULTS: We found that by taking into account our prior beliefs about the likely effects on breast cancer mortality of routine radiological screening programmes, the new data fit well into an estimate of a 5% mortality reduction with a 77% chance that there is a positive effect of screening. INTERPRETATION: Bayesian statistics is helpful in making decisions on the basis of experimental evidence by taking into account our prior knowledge, whereas p-values in traditional statistics only give information on how often we will end up with a false positive conclusion in the long run.