The performance of COBRA, a decision rule to predict the need for intensive care interventions in intentional drug overdose.

BACKGROUND: COBRA was developed as a decision rule to predict which patients visiting the emergency department (ED) following intentional drug overdose will not require intensive care unit (ICU) interventions. COBRA uses parameters from five vital systems (cardiac conduction, oxygenation, blood pressure, respiration, and awareness) that are readily available in the ED. COBRA recommends against ICU admission when all these parameters are normal. OBJECTIVE: The primary aim of this study was to determine the negative predictive value (NPV) of COBRA in predicting ICU interventions. Secondary outcomes were the sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value (PPV), and the observation time required for a reliable prediction. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients with a reported intentional overdose with drugs having potential acute effects on neurological, circulatory or ventilatory function were included, and data necessary to complete the decision rule was collected. The attending physician in the ED made the actual admission decision, on the basis of clinical judgement. COBRA was measured 0, 3 and 6 h after arrival at the ED. OUTCOME MEASURES: Need for ICU interventions (treatment of convulsion; defibrillation; mechanical or noninvasive ventilation; intravenous administration of vasopressive agents, antiarrhythmics, atropine, calcium, magnesium or sedation; continuous hemofiltration or administration of antagonist/antidote and fluid resuscitation). MAIN RESULTS: Of 230 new cases (144 unique patients), 59 were immediately referred to the psychiatric services and/or sent home by the attending physician, 27 went to a regular ward, and 144 were admitted to the ICU. Of these 144 cases, 40 required one or more ICU interventions. By the time the first parameters were collected, the NPV of COBRA was 95.6%. After 3 h of observation, NPV was 100%, while sensitivity, specificity and PPV were 100, 61.1 and 35.1%, respectively. None of these values improved by prolonging the observation time to 6 h. CONCLUSION: In patients with a reported intentional overdose with drugs having potential acute effects on neurological, circulatory or ventilatory function, the COBRA decision rule showed good performances in predicting the need for intensive care interventions, with a NPV of 100% after 3 h of observation.

Regional trauma system reduces mortality and changes admission rates: a before and after study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of the introduction of a regionalized trauma system. BACKGROUND: Trauma systems have proven to be efficacious in reducing mortality in trauma patients in the United States. To date, this was not proven for inclusive trauma systems outside the United States. The current study evaluates the effect of the introduction of an inclusive trauma system in the Netherlands in 1999. METHODS: Retrospective pre- and post analyses of a trauma care system on hospital discharge data regarding trauma patients admitted to hospitals in the central region of The Netherlands. Patients treated during 1996 to 1998 (control group), before implementation of the inclusive trauma system were compared with patients treated during 2003 to 2005 (index group) after the trauma system was installed. Risk adjusted odds-ratios of death and admission to a trauma center were determined. RESULTS: A total of 33,201 patients were included in the control group and compared with 34,840 patients in the index group. After implementation of the trauma system, in-hospital mortality for all injured patients decreased from 2.6% to 2.3% (OR: 0.89 with 95% CI: 0.80-0.98). After adjustment for differences in gender, age, injury severity, comorbidity, injured body region, mechanism and intent of injury between both groups, the odds-ratio was 0.84 with 95% CI (0.76-0.94). Multitrauma patients were the subgroup admitted more frequently to a trauma center (OR: 1.19 with 95% CI: 1.01-1.39). CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of an inclusive trauma system in The Netherlands results in a more efficient triage system of trauma patients among hospitals and is associated with a substantial and statistically significant risk reduction (16%) of death.

Children with meningeal signs: predicting who needs empiric antibiotic treatment.

BACKGROUND: Since delayed diagnosis and treatment of bacterial meningitis worsens patient prognosis, clinicians have a low threshold to perform a lumbar puncture or to start empiric antibiotic treatment in patients suspected of having meningitis. OBJECTIVE: To develop a decision rule, including cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) indices and clinical characteristics, to determine whether empiric antibiotic treatment should be started in children with meningeal signs. DESIGN: Multivariable logistic regression analysis of retrospectively collected data. Bacterial meningitis was defined as a CSF leukocyte count of more than 5/ micro L with positive bacterial culture findings from CSF or blood specimens. SETTING: Pediatric emergency department of a pediatric university hospital. PATIENTS: A total of 227 children (aged 1 month to 15 years) with meningeal signs. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The diagnostic value of adding early obtainable CSF indices to clinical characteristics to predict bacterial meningitis. RESULTS: Independent predictors of bacterial meningitis from early obtainable CSF indices were the CSF polymorphonuclear leukocyte count and the CSF-blood glucose ratio. The diagnostic value (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) of this CSF model was 0.93. Application of the model together with clinical characteristics could predict early the absence of bacterial meningitis in 69 (30%) of the 227 patients so that empiric antibiotic treatment could be safely withheld. CONCLUSION: A diagnostic decision rule that uses clinical characteristics at admission, the CSF polymorphonuclear leukocyte count, and the CSF-blood glucose ratio is a useful tool for deciding whether to start empiric antibiotics in children with meningeal signs.