Agricultural expansion raises groundwater and increases flooding in the South American plains.

Regional effects of farming on hydrology are associated mostly with irrigation. In this work, we show how rainfed agriculture can also leave large-scale imprints. The extent and speed of farming expansion across the South American plains over the past four decades provide an unprecedented case of the effects of rainfed farming on hydrology. Remote sensing analysis shows that as annual crops replaced native vegetation and pastures, floods gradually doubled their coverage, increasing their sensitivity to precipitation. Groundwater shifted from deep (12 to 6 meters) to shallow (4 to 0 meters) states, reducing drawdown levels. Field studies and simulations suggest that declining rooting depths and evapotranspiration in croplands are the causes of this hydrological transformation. These findings show the escalating flooding risks associated with rainfed agriculture expansion at subcontinental and decadal scales.

Sampling frequency for water quality variables in streams: Systems analysis to quantify minimum monitoring rates.

Insufficient temporal monitoring of water quality in streams or engineered drains alters the apparent shape of storm chemographs, resulting in shifted model parameterisations and changed interpretations of solute sources that have produced episodes of poor water quality. This so-called 'aliasing' phenomenon is poorly recognised in water research. Using advances in in-situ sensor technology it is now possible to monitor sufficiently frequently to avoid the onset of aliasing. A systems modelling procedure is presented allowing objective identification of sampling rates needed to avoid aliasing within strongly rainfall-driven chemical dynamics. In this study aliasing of storm chemograph shapes was quantified by changes in the time constant parameter (TC) of transfer functions. As a proportion of the original TC, the onset of aliasing varied between watersheds, ranging from 3.9-7.7 to 54-79 %TC (or 110-160 to 300-600 min). However, a minimum monitoring rate could be identified for all datasets if the modelling results were presented in the form of a new statistic, ΔTC. For the eight H+, DOC and NO3-N datasets examined from a range of watershed settings, an empirically-derived threshold of 1.3(ΔTC) could be used to quantify minimum monitoring rates within sampling protocols to avoid artefacts in subsequent data analysis.

North Atlantic forcing of moisture delivery to Europe throughout the Holocene.

Century-to-millennial scale fluctuations in precipitation and temperature are an established feature of European Holocene climates. Changes in moisture delivery are driven by complex interactions between ocean moisture sources and atmospheric circulation modes, making it difficult to resolve the drivers behind millennial scale variability in European precipitation. Here, we present two overlapping decadal resolution speleothem oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) records from a cave on the Atlantic coastline of northern Iberia, covering the period 12.1-0 ka. Speleothem δ(18)O reveals nine quasi-cyclical events of relatively wet-to-dry climatic conditions during the Holocene. Dynamic Harmonic Regression modelling indicates that changes in precipitation occurred with a ~1500 year frequency during the late Holocene and at a shorter length during the early Holocene. The timing of these cycles coincides with changes in North Atlantic Ocean conditions, indicating a connectivity between ocean conditions and Holocene moisture delivery. Early Holocene climate is potentially dominated by freshwater outburst events, whilst ~1500 year cycles in the late Holocene are more likely driven by changes internal to the ocean system. This is the first continental record of its type that clearly demonstrates millennial scale connectivity between the pulse of the ocean and precipitation over Europe through the entirety of the Holocene.

Does the Establishment of Sustainable Use Reserves Affect Fire Management in the Humid Tropics?

Tropical forests are experiencing a growing fire problem driven by climatic change, agricultural expansion and forest degradation. Protected areas are an important feature of forest protection strategies, and sustainable use reserves (SURs) may be reducing fire prevalence since they promote sustainable livelihoods and resource management. However, the use of fire in swidden agriculture, and other forms of land management, may be undermining the effectiveness of SURs in meeting their conservation and sustainable development goals. We analyse MODIS derived hot pixels, TRMM rainfall data, Terra-Class land cover data, socio-ecological data from the Brazilian agro-census and the spatial extent of rivers and roads to evaluate whether the designation of SURs reduces fire occurrence in the Brazilian Amazon. Specifically, we ask (1) a. Is SUR location (i.e., de facto) or (1) b. designation (i.e. de jure) the driving factor affecting performance in terms of the spatial density of fires?, and (2), Does SUR creation affect fire management (i.e., the timing of fires in relation to previous rainfall)? We demonstrate that pre-protection baselines are crucial for understanding reserve performance. We show that reserve creation had no discernible impact on fire density, and that fires were less prevalent in SURs due to their characteristics of sparser human settlement and remoteness, rather than their status de jure. In addition, the timing of fires in relation to rainfall, indicative of local fire management and adherence to environmental law, did not improve following SUR creation. These results challenge the notion that SURs promote environmentally sensitive fire-management, and suggest that SURs in Amazonia will require special attention if they are to curtail future accidental wildfires, particularly as plans to expand the road infrastructure throughout the region are realised. Greater investment to support improved fire management by farmers living in reserves, in addition to other fire users, will be necessary to help ameliorate these threats.

First dynamic model of dissolved organic carbon derived directly from high-frequency observations through contiguous storms.

The first dynamic model of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export in streams derived directly from high frequency (subhourly) observations sampled at a regular interval through contiguous storms is presented. The optimal model, identified using the recently developed RIVC algorithm, captured the rapid dynamics of DOC load from 15 min monitored rainfall with high simulation efficiencies and constrained uncertainty with a second-order (two-pathway) structure. Most of the DOC export in the four headwater basins studied was associated with the faster hydrometric pathway (also modeled in parallel), and was soon exhausted in the slower pathway. A delay in the DOC mobilization became apparent as the ambient temperatures increased. These features of the component pathways were quantified in the dynamic response characteristics (DRCs) identified by RIVC. The model and associated DRCs are intended as a foundation for a better understanding of storm-related DOC dynamics and predictability, given the increasing availability of subhourly DOC concentration data.

An evaluation of DGT performance using a dynamic numerical model.

A numerical model of the transport and dynamics of metal complexes in the resin and gel layers of a DGT (diffusive gradients in thin films) device was developed and used to investigate how the chelating resin and metal-ligand complexes in solution affect metal uptake. Decreasing the stability constant or concentration of the binding resin increases the competition for free metal ions by ligands in solution, lowering the rate of mass uptake. Such effects would be rarely observed for moderately or strongly binding resins (K> 10(12)), including Chelex, which out-compete labile ligands in solution. With weakly binding resins, strongly bound solution complexes can diffuse into the resin layer before a measurable amount of dissociation occurs, such that concentrations of bound metal at the rear and front surfaces of the resin layer are equal. With more strongly binding resins, metal mainly binds to the front surface of the resin. Only complexes with the largest binding constants penetrate the gel layer containing Chelex, buttheir lack of lability means thatthe DGT sensitivity to the complex is, in any case, very low. The slow diffusion of complexes, such as those of fulvic acids, which increases the time required to establish steady state, compromises the use of the simple DGT equation. Errors are negligible for 24 h deployments, when diffusive layer thicknesses are less than 1 mm, but 3 day deployments are required to ensure accuracy with 2.4 mm thick layers. The extent to which the commonly used equation, that accounts for the concentration and diffusion of metal-complex species, overestimates DGT uptake if the rate of dissociation is slow, was estimated.

Resolving the long-term trends of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the Canadian Arctic atmosphere.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) air concentrations measured over the period 1992-2000 at the Canadian High Arctic station of Alert were subject to time-series analysis using dynamic harmonic regression (DHR). For most of the PAHs, the DHR model fit to the observed data was good, with DHR capable of interpolating over missing data points during periods when air concentrations were below detection limits. As expected, DHR identified seasonal increases in PAH air concentrations. However, it has also identified additional, subtler "seasonal" patterns as a series of harmonics with varying periodicity. For example, a regular summer high in air concentrations was apparent for many PAHs, particularly the lower molecular weight (two- to three-ringed) compounds, which may be attributed to summertime regional combustion events such as forestfires and/or revolatilization from surfaces (e.g., soil and oceans, as well as arctic surfaces). Comparison of wintertime PAH concentrations (where sigmaPAH ranged from 260 to 516 pg m(-3)) with an earlier arctic study did not reveal a reduction in PAH levels. However, removal of the seasonal components by DHR revealed a declining trend in PAH concentrations over the 1992-2000 period. For many lighter PAHs, this was typified by a linear decrease over the whole time series, although, for the higher molecular weight PAHs, a marked reduction was apparent in the first few years of sampling followed by a leveling off in concentrations by the mid/late-1990s. This behavior is similar to reported trends of other air pollutants in the Arctic, may be attributed to the decline in Soviet industry during the early 1990s, and has implications regarding the major PAH sources affecting the Arctic.

Sodium-related partial stomatal closure and salt tolerance of Aster tripolium.

• When Aster tripolium is grown at high salinity, stomatal closure is induced by the presence of sodium ions in the apoplast surrounding the guard cells. The occurrence of this system in Aster tripolium and not in the closely related glycophyte Aster amellus suggests that it could be an important factor in the network of physiological attributes required for salt tolerance. • Gas exchange and growth parameters were measured in Aster tripolium plants grown at different levels of salinity. A simple mechanistic model was constructed to test whether the Na-sensing feature of the guard cells was a realistic component of salinity tolerance. • The model captured very well the behaviour of plants in terms of salt uptake and reduction of growth with increasing salinity. There was moderate variance between measured and modelled rates of decrease of conductance with increasing levels of salinity. • No evidence was found to refute our hypothesis that stomatal closure in response to sodium plays an important role in salt tolerance of Aster tripolium.