High-need beneficiary enrollment patterns in Medicare Advantage and traditional Medicare.

OBJECTIVES: High-need Medicare beneficiaries require elevated levels of care and coordination to manage their conditions. We evaluated the extent to which high-need beneficiaries enrolled in Medicare Advantage (MA) or traditional Medicare (TM) accountable care organizations (ACOs) relative to TM non-ACOs. STUDY DESIGN: Using Medicare claims and MA encounter data, we identified 3 groups of high-need beneficiaries: (1) individuals younger than 65 years with a disability or end-stage kidney disease, (2) frail individuals, and (3) older individuals with major complex or multiple noncomplex chronic conditions. For comparison, we included non-high-need beneficiaries in the analysis, including those with minor complex chronic conditions. METHODS: Descriptive analysis of Medicare enrollment patterns and beneficiary characteristics of high-need and other beneficiaries between 2016 and 2019. RESULTS: In 2019, high-need beneficiaries accounted for 18 million or 32% of enrollees in TM and MA, an increase of approximately 1 million since 2016, driven by growth in MA. A larger share of beneficiaries in TM ACOs was high need (38%) compared with MA (24%). Although the total count of high-need beneficiaries in TM remained stable from 2016 to 2019, ACOs saw an increase of almost 1.5 million high-need beneficiaries (39% increase), and TM non-ACOs saw a decrease of 1.9 million (23% decrease). CONCLUSIONS: We found that high-need beneficiaries were more likely to be in TM non-ACOs than in MA through 2019. However, an increasing number of these beneficiaries are enrolling in MA or aligned with a TM ACO. A projected increase in the population of older adults will increase the economic burden of caring for high-need individuals.

Understanding differences between what alternate propensity score methods estimate.

BACKGROUND: Many approaches to propensity score methods are used in the applied health economics and outcomes research literature. Often this creates confusion when different approaches produce different results for the same data. OBJECTIVE: To present a conceptual overview based on a potential outcomes framework to demonstrate how more than 1 mean treatment effect parameter can be estimated using the propensity score methods and how the selection of appropriate methods should align with the scientific questions. METHODS: We highlight that more than 1 mean treatment effect parameter can be estimated using the propensity score methods. Using the potential outcomes framework and alternate data-generating processes, we discuss under what assumptions different mean treatment effect parameter estimates are supposed to vary. We tie these discussions with propensity score methods to show that different approaches may estimate different parameters. We illustrate these methods using a case study of the comparative effectiveness of apixaban vs warfarin on the likelihood of stroke among patients with a prior diagnosis of atrial fibrillation. RESULTS: Different mean treatment effect parameters take on different values when treatment effects are heterogeneous. We show that traditional propensity score approaches, such as blocking, weighting, matching, or doubly robust, can estimate different mean treatment effect parameters. Therefore, they may not produce the same results even when applied to the same data using the same covariates. We found significant differences in our case study estimates of mean treatment effect parameters. Still, once a mean treatment effect parameter is targeted, estimates across different methods are not different. This highlights the importance of first selecting the target parameter for analysis by aligning the interpretation of the target parameter with the scientific questions and then selecting the specific method to estimate this target parameter. CONCLUSIONS: We present a conceptual overview of propensity score methods in health economics and outcomes research from a potential outcomes framework. We hope these discussions will help applied researchers choose appropriate propensity score approaches for their analysis. DISCLOSURES: Dr Unuigbe's time was supported through an unrestricted postdoctoral fellowship from Pfizer to the University of Washington, Seattle.

The Zero-Price Conundrum: Exploration of Scenarios Where a Clinically Effective New Drug Might Not Be Cost-Effective at Zero Price.

OBJECTIVES: The zero-price conundrum occurs when a clinically effective drug can justify no greater than a price of zero based on cost-effectiveness criteria from a health system perspective. This is relevant for health systems that require evidence of cost-effectiveness, in addition to safety and efficacy for drug approval and other analyses that may shape drug coverage policies, such as budget impact and comparative effectiveness. This study aimed to clarify and explore the zero-price conundrum to provide a resource in the development of practical and methodological solutions. METHODS: We specified equations representing previously identified zero-price scenarios and used them to elucidate factors contributing to the zero-price conundrum and explore relationships between them. We present real-world considerations and discuss solutions from the literature. RESULTS: The analyses demonstrated that a primary cause of the zero-price problem for a new drug that increases quality-adjusted survival pertains to healthcare costs beyond the influence of the new drug, specifically, disease background costs, costs of existing drugs used in a combination regimen, and costs of future health interventions patients may become eligible to receive. Pragmatic solutions have been to exclude such costs from cost-effectiveness analyses. Proposed modifications to cost-effectiveness analysis include assessing each drug in a combination regimen based on its relative contribution to improved health. CONCLUSIONS: The zero-price dilemma may arise more frequently as the number of drugs in high-cost disease areas continues to grow. As cost-effectiveness methods evolve, there is the opportunity to develop robust solutions that can be applied consistently.

Beneficiary Switching Between Traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage Between 2016 and 2020.

This cohort study examines switching behavior in enrollment in Medicare Advantage and traditional Medicare.

Reconciling ACEA and MCDA: is there a way forward for measuring cost-effectiveness in the U.S. healthcare setting?

BACKGROUND: The ISPOR Special Task Force (STF) on US Value Assessment Frameworks was agnostic about exactly how to implement the quality-adjusted life year (QALY) as a key element in an overall cost-effectiveness evaluation. But the STF recommended using the cost-per-QALY gained as a starting point in deliberations about including a new technology in a health plan benefit. The STF offered two major alternative approaches-augmented cost-effectiveness analysis (ACEA) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)-while emphasizing the need to apply either a willingness-to-pay (WTP) or opportunity cost threshold rule to operationalize the inclusion decision. METHODS: The MCDA model uses the multi-attribute utility function. The ACEA model is based on the expected utility theory. In both ACEA and MCDA models, value trade-offs are derived in a hierarchical model with two high-level objectives which measure overall health gain separately from financial attributes affecting consumption. RESULTS: Even though value trade-offs can be elicited or revealed without considering budget constraints, we demonstrate that they can be used similarly to WTP-based cost-effectiveness thresholds for resource allocation decisions. The consideration of how costs of medical technology, income, and severity of disease affect value trade-offs demonstrates, however, that reconciling decisions in ACEA and MCDA requires that health and consumption are either complements or independent attributes. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that value trade-offs derived either from ACEA or MCDA move similarly with changes in main factors considered by enrollees and decision makers-costs of the medical technology, income, and severity of disease. Consequently, this complementarity between health and consumption is a necessary condition for reconciling ACEA and MCDA. Moreover, their similarity would be further enhanced if the QALY is used as the key attribute or anchor in the MCDA value function: the choice between the two is a pragmatic question that is still open.

The Medicare Part D Coverage Gap, Prescription Use, and Expenditures.

The Affordable Care Act has put in place policies to gradually close the Medicare Part D coverage gap (donut hole). I examine the effect of this gradual closure on total and out-of-pocket prescription drug expenditures, as well as the number of prescriptions filled. The analysis shows a general increase in prescription use. There are also heterogeneous effects, with higher total expenditure groups seeing a decrease in their out-of-pocket prescription expenditures. This suggests that closure of the "donut hole" has led to an increase in prescription use that was previously curtailed and had an impact on the financial risk faced by Medicare recipients. This has implications for trends in prescription use and Medicare expenditures in the future, as the coverage gap is closed further.

Impact of medicaid policy changes on immigrant parents.

During the 1990s and early 2000s many states expanded Medicaid eligibility for parents particularly after the 1996 welfare reform. At the same time, welfare reform also put in place policies that limited the eligibility of recent immigrants for public programs including Medicaid. This paper evaluates the effects of these changes in Medicaid eligibility policy on the private and public health insurance coverage of immigrants as well as the overall insurance rate. It also looks at the effect on health care use and measures of health status. The findings indicate a significant increase in Medicaid coverage and an increase in the proportion insured overall with negligible crowd-out of private insurance. There is also an increase in the use of health care services. In the case of permanent residents, there is a diminished response to Medicaid eligibility changes possibly due to a "chilling effect".

Association between Falls and Caregiving Tasks among Informal Caregivers: Canadian Community Health Survey Data.

Falls are a common cause of morbidity and mortality in older adults. While research has explored the relationship between older care recipient falls and caregiver health, there has been little investigation of the relationship between caregiving tasks and falls in older caregivers. This study assessed associations between falls and caregiving frequency and type of caregiving tasks among informal older caregivers. Data from the Canadian Community Health Survey on Healthy Aging (Public Use Microdata File 2008-2009) (n = 2,934) were examined, using descriptive and logistic regression analyses. Higher frequency of caregiving was positively associated with falls, although those who performed household chores were less likely to report falling in the past year. Results suggest there may be an association between factors related to caregiving and falls in older caregivers. More research using longitudinal and experimental data is needed to better understand the relationship between caregiving tasks and falls in older caregivers.