Morpho-physiological and demographic responses of three threatened Ilex species to changing climate aligned with species distribution models in future climate scenarios.

The success of a species in future climate change scenarios depends on its morphological, physiological, and demographic adaptive responses to changing climate. The existence of threatened species against climate adversaries is constrained due to their small population size, narrow genetic base, and narrow niche breadth. We examined if ecological niche model (ENM)-based distribution predictions of species align with their morpho-physiological and demographic responses to future climate change scenarios. We studied three threatened Ilex species, viz., Ilex khasiana Purkay., I. venulosa Hook. f., and I. embelioides Hook. F, with restricted distribution in Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspot. Demographic analysis of the natural populations of each species in Meghalaya, India revealed an upright pyramid suggesting a stable population under the present climate scenario. I. khasiana was confined to higher elevations only while I. venulosa and I. embelioides had wider altitudinal distribution ranges. The bio-climatic niche of I. khasiana was narrow, while the other two species had relatively broader niches. The ENM-predicted potential distribution areas under the current (2022) and future (2050) climatic scenarios (General Circulation Models (GCMs): IPSL-CM5A-LR and NIMR-HADGEM2-AO) revealed that the distribution of highly suitable areas for the most climate-sensitive I. khasiana got drastically reduced. In I. venulosa and I. embelioides, there was an increase in highly suitable areas under the future scenarios. The eco-physiological studies showed marked variation among the species, sites, and treatments (p < 0.05), indicating the differential responses of the three species to varied climate scenarios, but followed a similar trend in species performance aligning with the model predictions.

Assessing the effectiveness of community managed forests for plant diversity conservation in Meghalaya, Northeast India.

In the state Meghalaya, northeast India, >80% of the forest lands are owned by local communities and managed by traditional institutions. These forests are under severe threats due to a number of human disturbances. The present study was conducted to assess the plant diversity and identify the community forests for priority conservation in Khasi Hills of Meghalaya. Floristic explorations carried out in the 87 forests reveals the presence of 1300 plant species of which 400 are either rare, endemic or threatened. Of the different forest categories, reserve forests had the highest number of species (1190), followed by sacred forests (987 species) and village forests (786 species). Majority of the forests (56) had high-species richness, irreplaceability level (42 forests) and vulnerability level (54). In terms of area, 13.8% (1666.8 ha) fall under low risk while 1855 ha under high risk zone. High risk zone was mostly represented by village forests. An area of 7661.56 ha of community forests falls under high priority category and hence calls for immediate conservation actions. The conservation priority map generated in the present study will help to concentrate the protection strategy to the demarcated and adjoining areas and help conservationists and planners to evolve effective strategies for conservation of the community forests.

Genetic diversity and population structure assessment using molecular markers and SPAR approach in Illicium griffithii, a medicinally important endangered species of Northeast India.

BACKGROUND: Illicium griffithii is an aromatic medicinal tree species that has been listed in the IUCN Red List as an endangered species. Dried seed pods of I. griffithii have a good market potential in the spices and pharmaceutical industries. Fruits are the potential source of shikimic acid and used for the production of oseltamivir (a drug against bird flu). However, in recent years, unscientific harvesting and rampant exploitation of the species has caused a negative and adverse effect on its natural population. Proper knowledge of genetic diversity and population structure is crucial to understand the population dynamics, adaptation, and evolutionary pattern of a particular species for conservation. It was from this view point that the present study was undertaken so as to compare the various types of DNA-based molecular markers namely RAPD, ISSR, DAMD, and SCoT by their efficiency and SPAR approach to evaluate the genetic diversity of I. griffithii as well as to analyze population genetic structure for conservation purpose. RESULT: A total of 250 discernible bands were generated with 246 bands (98.40 %) being polymorphic in nature. All the primers in combination gave a mean polymorphic information content (PIC) of 0.81 and Rp value (resolving power) of 4.32. Nei's, Gst, and AMOVA analysis showed similar values of genetic differentiation among populations (Gst = 0.396, FST = 0.30, respectively), revealing a low level of genetic differentiation among the eight sampled populations. I. griffithii with an estimated gene flow value of Nm = 0.761 was significantly low among populations. Clustering pattern obtained with Bayesian structure and PCoA diagram revealed that intermixing of genetic material across populations is only possible when the populations lie close to each other. This is further validated with UPGMA clustering method where a positive correlation of genetic variability with geographical distance among closely related populations could be clearly seen. CONCLUSION: The result aids in the identification, collection, and preservation of diverse germplasm of I. griffithii from Arunachal Pradesh and Meghalaya of Northeast India. This would further help in understanding the population structure and genetic diversity among other Illicium species in order to formulate effective conservation strategies for the improvement of this endangered taxa.

Ecological niche modeling as a cumulative environmental impact assessment tool for biodiversity assessment and conservation planning: A case study of critically endangered plant Lagerstroemia minuticarpa in the Indian Eastern Himalaya.

Cumulative environmental impact assessment (CEIA) at river basin level for hydroelectric projects is an evolving concept and has proved to be a useful tool to assess the cumulative impact of developmental projects on the natural ecosystems. However, the generality of CEIA studies is often contested because of methodological limitations, especially in the domain of biodiversity conservation and conservation planning. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) can be a useful tool in CEIA studies for conservation planning of threatened plants in hydroelectric project (HEP) areas. We elucidate this hypothesis taking the example of Lagerstroemia minuticarpa Debberm. ex P.C. Kanjilal, a critically endangered tree species in the Indian Eastern Himalaya. Standard ecological methods were employed to document occurrence records, estimate population size, and characterize habitats. ENM was used to estimate the species potential environmental niche and distribution areas. The possible impacts of HEPs on the potential habitats were predicted by overlaying the HEPs on the potential area map as well as using the conceptual network diagram. The study revealed that the species occupies an environmental niche characterized by humid to per-humid conditions, and is distributed mostly in the Lohit and Teesta basins. Potential areas of the species with high environmental suitability coincide with 19 HEPs, which point to a potential threat to the survival of the species. Network diagram indicated that project activities might deteriorate the habitats thereby affecting the population and regeneration of the species. Our study provides a framework for developing appropriate measures for species conservation and reintroduction at basin level using ENM.