The political, psychological, and social correlates of cryptocurrency ownership.

Cryptocurrency is a digital asset secured by cryptography that has become a popular medium of exchange and investment known for its anonymous transactions, unregulated markets, and volatile prices. Given the popular subculture of traders it has created, and its implications for financial markets and monetary policy, scholars have recently begun to examine the political, psychological, and social characteristics of cryptocurrency investors. A review of the existing literature suggests that cryptocurrency owners may possess higher-than-average levels of nonnormative psychological traits and exhibit a range of non-mainstream political identities. However, this extant literature typically employs small nonrepresentative samples of respondents and examines only a small number of independent variables in each given study. This presents the opportunity for both further testing of previous findings as well as broader exploratory analyses including more expansive descriptive investigations of cryptocurrency owners. To that end, we polled 2,001 American adults in 2022 to examine the associations between cryptocurrency ownership and individual level political, psychological, and social characteristics. Analyses revealed that 30% of our sample have owned some form of cryptocurrency and that these individuals exhibit a diversity of political allegiances and identities. We also found that crypto ownership was associated with belief in conspiracy theories, "dark" personality characteristics (e.g., the "Dark Tetrad" of narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and sadism), and more frequent use of alternative and fringe social media platforms. When examining a more comprehensive multivariate model, the variables that most strongly predict cryptocurrency ownership are being male, relying on alternative/fringe social media as one's primary news source, argumentativeness, and an aversion to authoritarianism. These findings highlight numerous avenues for future research into the people who buy and trade cryptocurrencies and speak to broader global trends in anti-establishment attitudes and nonnormative behaviors.

The sociodemographic correlates of conspiracism.

Despite hundreds of studies examining belief in conspiracy theories, it is still unclear who-demographically-is most likely to believe such theories. To remedy this knowledge gap, we examine survey data containing various operationalizations of conspiracism across diverse sociopolitical contexts. Study 1 employs a 2021 U.S. survey (n = 2021) to examine associations between sociodemographic characteristics and beliefs in 39 conspiracy theories. Study 2 similarly employs a survey of 20 countries (n = 26,416) and 11 conspiracy theory beliefs. Study 3 reports results from a 2020 U.S. survey (n = 2015) measuring perceptions about which groups are engaging in conspiracies. Study 4 interrogates data from nine U.S. surveys (2012-2022; n = 14,334) to examine the relationships between sociodemographic characteristics and generalized conspiracy thinking. Study 5 synchronizes studies 1-4 to provide an intersectional analysis of conspiracy theory belief. Across studies, we observe remarkably consistent patterns: education, income, age (older), and White identification are negatively related to conspiracism, while Black identification is positively related. We conclude by discussing why conspiracy theories may appeal most to historically marginalized groups and how our findings can inform efforts to mitigate the negative effects of conspiracy theories.

The importance of epistemology for the study of misinformation.

Scholars have rapidly produced a robust body of literature addressing the public's beliefs in, and interactions with "misinformation." Despite the literature's stated concerns about the underlying truth value of the information and beliefs in question, the field has thus far operated without a reliable epistemology for determining the truth of the information and beliefs in question, often leaving researchers (or third parties) to make such determinations based on loose definitions and a naïve epistemology. We argue that, while this area of research has made great strides in recent years, more attention to definitions, epistemology, and terminology would both improve the validity of the literature and prevent the field of misinformation studies from becoming political conflict by another name.

On modeling the correlates of conspiracy thinking.

While a robust literature on the psychology of conspiracy theories has identified dozens of characteristics correlated with conspiracy theory beliefs, much less attention has been paid to understanding the generalized predisposition towards interpreting events and circumstances as the product of supposed conspiracies. Using a unique national survey of 2015 U.S. adults from October 2020, we investigate the relationship between this predisposition-conspiracy thinking-and 34 different psychological, political, and social correlates. Using conditional inference tree modeling-a machine learning-based approach designed to facilitate prediction using a flexible modeling methodology-we identify the characteristics that are most useful for orienting individuals along the conspiracy thinking continuum, including (but not limited to): anomie, Manicheanism, support for political violence, a tendency to share false information online, populism, narcissism, and psychopathy. Altogether, psychological characteristics are much more useful in predicting conspiracy thinking than are political and social characteristics, though even our robust set of correlates only partially accounts for variance in conspiracy thinking.

The Relationship Between Social Media Use and Beliefs in Conspiracy Theories and Misinformation.

Numerous studies find associations between social media use and beliefs in conspiracy theories and misinformation. While such findings are often interpreted as evidence that social media causally promotes conspiracy beliefs, we theorize that this relationship is conditional on other individual-level predispositions. Across two studies, we examine the relationship between beliefs in conspiracy theories and media use, finding that individuals who get their news from social media and use social media frequently express more beliefs in some types of conspiracy theories and misinformation. However, we also find that these relationships are conditional on conspiracy thinking--the predisposition to interpret salient events as products of conspiracies--such that social media use becomes more strongly associated with conspiracy beliefs as conspiracy thinking intensifies. This pattern, which we observe across many beliefs from two studies, clarifies the relationship between social media use and beliefs in dubious ideas. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11109-021-09734-6.

How Anti-Social Personality Traits and Anti-Establishment Views Promote Beliefs in Election Fraud, QAnon, and COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories and Misinformation.

Conspiracy theories and misinformation (CTM) became a salient feature of the Trump era. However, traditional explanations of political attitudes and behaviors inadequately account for beliefs in CTM or the deleterious behaviors they are associated with. Here, we integrate disparate literatures to explain beliefs in CTM regarding COVID-19, QAnon, and voter fraud. We aim to provide a more holistic accounting, and to determine which political, psychological, and social factors are most associated with such beliefs. Using a unique national survey, we find that anti-social personality traits, anti-establishment orientations, and support for Donald Trump are more strongly related to beliefs in CTM than traditional left-right orientations or other frequently posited factors, such as education, science literacy, and social media use. Our findings encourage researchers to move beyond the traditional correlates of political behavior when examining beliefs that express anti-social tendencies or a deep skepticism of social and political institutions.

The psychological and political correlates of conspiracy theory beliefs.

Understanding the individual-level characteristics associated with conspiracy theory beliefs is vital to addressing and combatting those beliefs. While researchers have identified numerous psychological and political characteristics associated with conspiracy theory beliefs, the generalizability of those findings is uncertain because they are typically drawn from studies of only a few conspiracy theories. Here, we employ a national survey of 2021 U.S. adults that asks about 15 psychological and political characteristics as well as beliefs in 39 different conspiracy theories. Across 585 relationships examined within both bivariate (correlations) and multivariate (regression) frameworks, we find that psychological traits (e.g., dark triad) and non-partisan/ideological political worldviews (e.g., populism, support for violence) are most strongly related to individual conspiracy theory beliefs, regardless of the belief under consideration, while other previously identified correlates (e.g., partisanship, ideological extremity) are inconsistently related. We also find that the correlates of specific conspiracy theory beliefs mirror those of conspiracy thinking (the predisposition), indicating that this predisposition operates like an 'average' of individual conspiracy theory beliefs. Overall, our findings detail the psychological and political traits of the individuals most drawn to conspiracy theories and have important implications for scholars and practitioners seeking to prevent or reduce the impact of conspiracy theories.

On the relationship between conspiracy theory beliefs, misinformation, and vaccine hesitancy.

At the time of writing, nearly one hundred published studies demonstrate that beliefs in COVID-19 conspiracy theories and misinformation are negatively associated with COVID-19 preventive behaviors. These correlational findings are often interpreted as evidence that beliefs in conspiracy theories and misinformation are exogenous factors that shape human behavior, such as forgoing vaccination. This interpretation has motivated researchers to develop methods for "prebunking," "debunking," or otherwise limiting the spread of conspiracy theories and misinformation online. However, the robust literatures on conspiracy theory beliefs, health behaviors, and media effects lead us to question whether beliefs in conspiracy theories and misinformation should be treated as exogenous to vaccine hesitancy and refusal. Employing U.S. survey data (n = 2,065) from July 2021, we show that beliefs in COVID-19 conspiracy theories and misinformation are not only related to COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and refusal, but also strongly associated with the same psychological, social, and political motivations theorized to drive COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and refusal. These findings suggest that beliefs in conspiracy theories and misinformation might not always be an exogenous cause, but rather a manifestation of the same factors that lead to vaccine hesitancy and refusal. We conclude by encouraging researchers to carefully consider modeling choices and imploring practitioners to refocus on the worldviews, personality traits, and political orientations that underlie both health-related behaviors and beliefs in conspiracy theories and misinformation.

Are Republicans and Conservatives More Likely to Believe Conspiracy Theories?

A sizable literature tracing back to Richard Hofstadter's The Paranoid Style (1964) argues that Republicans and conservatives are more likely to believe conspiracy theories than Democrats and liberals. However, the evidence for this proposition is mixed. Since conspiracy theory beliefs are associated with dangerous orientations and behaviors, it is imperative that social scientists better understand the connection between conspiracy theories and political orientations. Employing 20 surveys of Americans from 2012 to 2021 (total n = 37,776), as well as surveys of 20 additional countries spanning six continents (total n = 26,416), we undertake an expansive investigation of the asymmetry thesis. First, we examine the relationship between beliefs in 52 conspiracy theories and both partisanship and ideology in the U.S.; this analysis is buttressed by an examination of beliefs in 11 conspiracy theories across 20 more countries. In our second test, we hold constant the content of the conspiracy theories investigated-manipulating only the partisanship of the theorized villains-to decipher whether those on the left or right are more likely to accuse political out-groups of conspiring. Finally, we inspect correlations between political orientations and the general predisposition to believe in conspiracy theories over the span of a decade. In no instance do we observe systematic evidence of a political asymmetry. Instead, the strength and direction of the relationship between political orientations and conspiricism is dependent on the characteristics of the specific conspiracy beliefs employed by researchers and the socio-political context in which those ideas are considered. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11109-022-09812-3.

Have beliefs in conspiracy theories increased over time?

The public is convinced that beliefs in conspiracy theories are increasing, and many scholars, journalists, and policymakers agree. Given the associations between conspiracy theories and many non-normative tendencies, lawmakers have called for policies to address these increases. However, little evidence has been provided to demonstrate that beliefs in conspiracy theories have, in fact, increased over time. We address this evidentiary gap. Study 1 investigates change in the proportion of Americans believing 46 conspiracy theories; our observations in some instances span half a century. Study 2 examines change in the proportion of individuals across six European countries believing six conspiracy theories. Study 3 traces beliefs about which groups are conspiring against "us," while Study 4 tracks generalized conspiracy thinking in the U.S. from 2012 to 2021. In no instance do we observe systematic evidence for an increase in conspiracism, however operationalized. We discuss the theoretical and policy implications of our findings.

Sociopolitical and psychological correlates of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in the United States during summer 2021.

Vaccine hesitancy and refusal continue to hamper COVID-19 control efforts. Throughout the pandemic, scientists and journalists have attributed lagging COVID-19 vaccination rates to a shifting set of factors including demography, experiences during the height of the pandemic, political views, and beliefs in conspiracy theories and misinformation, among others. However, these factors have rarely been tested comprehensively, in tandem, or alongside other potentially underlying psychological factors, thus limiting our understanding of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. This cross-sectional study assesses a diverse set of correlates of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy identified in previous studies using US survey data (N = 2055) collected in July-August 2021. The survey contained modules designed to assess various sociopolitical domains and anti- and pro-social personality characteristics hypothesized to shape vaccine hesitancy. Using logistic and multinomial regression, we found that the strongest correlate of vaccine hesitancy was belief in misinformation about the COVID-19 vaccines, though we surmise that this common explanation may be endogenous to vaccine hesitancy. Political beliefs explained more variation in vaccine hesitancy-and in particular, vaccine refusal-after belief in COVID-19 vaccine misinformation was excluded from the analysis. Our findings help reconcile numerous disparate findings across the literature with implications for health education and future research.

Cause and effect: On the antecedents and consequences of conspiracy theory beliefs.

Since 2008, hundreds of studies have been published about conspiracy theories, many of which were in reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic. These studies are often motivated by concerns about the influence of exposure to conspiracy theories on beliefs, and the impact of conspiracy theory beliefs on behaviors. Numerous studies identify supportive correlations, concluding implicitly or explicitly that exposure causes belief and that beliefs subsequently cause behavior. We argue that while these causal relationships may exist, such conclusions currently lack robust evidence. We present an alternative model of the relationship between exposure, beliefs, and behaviors that accounts for other potentially causal factors and pathways. We encourage further work into the causal effects of exposure to, and beliefs in, conspiracy theories.