Spatial near future modeling of land use and land cover changes in the temperate forests of Mexico.

The loss of temperate forests of Mexico has continued in recent decades despite wide recognition of their importance to maintaining biodiversity. This study analyzes land use/land cover change scenarios, using satellite images from the Landsat sensor. Images corresponded to the years 1990, 2005 and 2017. The scenarios were applied for the temperate forests with the aim of getting a better understanding of the patterns in land use/land cover changes. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) multispectral classification technique served to determine the land use/land cover types, which were validated through the Kappa Index. For the simulation of land use/land cover dynamics, a model developed in Dinamica-EGO was used, which uses stochastic models of Markov Chains, Cellular Automata and Weight of Evidences. For the study, a stationary, an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario were proposed. The projections based on the three scenarios were simulated for the year 2050. Five types of land use/land cover were identified and evaluated. They were primary forest, secondary forest, human settlements, areas without vegetation and water bodies. Results from the land use/land cover change analysis show a substantial gain for the secondary forest. The surface area of the primary forest was reduced from 55.8% in 1990 to 37.7% in 2017. Moreover, the three projected scenarios estimate further losses of the surface are for the primary forest, especially under the stationary and pessimistic scenarios. This highlights the importance and probably urgent implementation of conservation and protection measures to preserve these ecosystems and their services. Based on the accuracy obtained and on the models generated, results from these methodologies can serve as a decision tool to contribute to the sustainable management of the natural resources of a region.

Arsenic Distribution Assessment in a Residential Area Polluted with Mining Residues.

Mining is a major source for metals and metalloids pollution, which could pose a risk for human health. In San Guillermo, Chihuahua, Mexico mining wastes are found adjacent to a residential area. A soil-surface sampling was performed, collecting 88 samples for arsenic determination by atomic absorption. Arsenic concentration data set was interpolated using the ArcGis models: inverse distance weighting (IDW), ordinary kriging (OK), and radial basis function (RBF). For method validation purposes, a set of the data was selected and two tests were performed (P1 and P2). In P1 the models were processed without the validation data; in P2 the validation data were removed one by one, models were processed every time that a data point was removed. An arsenic concentration range of 22.7 to 2190 mg/kg was reported. The 39% of data set was classified as contaminated soil and 61% as industrial land use. In P1 the method of interpolation with the lowest RMSE was RBF (0.80), the highest coefficient of E was RBF (46.25), and the highest Ceff value was with RBF (0.48). In P2 the method with the lowest RMSE was OK (0.76), the highest E value was 50.65 with OK, and the Ceff reported the highest value with OK (0.52). The high arsenic contamination in soil of the site indicates an abundant dispersion of this metalloid. Furthermore, the difference between the models was not very wide. The incorporation of more parameters would be of interest to observe the behavior of interpolation methods.