GIS-based probability assessment of natural hazards in forested landscapes of Central and South-Eastern Europe.

We assessed the probability of three major natural hazards--windthrow, drought, and forest fire--for Central and South-Eastern European forests which are major threats for the provision of forest goods and ecosystem services. In addition, we analyzed spatial distribution and implications for a future oriented management of forested landscapes. For estimating the probability of windthrow, we used rooting depth and average wind speed. Probabilities of drought and fire were calculated from climatic and total water balance during growing season. As an approximation to climate change scenarios, we used a simplified approach with a general increase of pET by 20%. Monitoring data from the pan-European forests crown condition program and observed burnt areas and hot spots from the European Forest Fire Information System were used to test the plausibility of probability maps. Regions with high probabilities of natural hazard are identified and management strategies to minimize probability of natural hazards are discussed. We suggest future research should focus on (i) estimating probabilities using process based models (including sensitivity analysis), (ii) defining probability in terms of economic loss, (iii) including biotic hazards, (iv) using more detailed data sets on natural hazards, forest inventories and climate change scenarios, and (v) developing a framework of adaptive risk management.

How to support forest management in a world of change: results of some regional studies.

This article presents results of several studies in Middle, Eastern and Southeastern Europe on needs and application areas, desirable attributes and marketing potentials of forest management support tools. By comparing present and future application areas, a trend from sectoral planning towards landscape planning and integration of multiple stakeholder needs is emerging. In terms of conflicts, where management support tools might provide benefit, no clear tendencies were found, neither on local nor on regional level. In contrast, on national and European levels, support of the implementation of laws, directives, and regulations was found to be of highest importance. Following the user-requirements analysis, electronic tools supporting communication are preferred against paper-based instruments. The users identified most important attributes of optimized management support tools: (i) a broad accessibility for all users at any time should be guaranteed, (ii) the possibility to integrate iteratively experiences from case studies and from regional experts into the knowledge base (learning system) should be given, and (iii) a self-explanatory user interface is demanded, which is also suitable for users rather inexperienced with electronic tools. However, a market potential analysis revealed that the willingness to pay for management tools is very limited, although the participants specified realistic ranges of maximal amounts of money, which would be invested if the products were suitable and payment inevitable. To bridge the discrepancy between unwillingness to pay and the need to use management support tools, optimized financing or cooperation models between practice and science must be found.

Children's understanding of illness: students' assessments.

The purpose of this study was to examine the perceptions of graduate students in the fields of nursing, social work, child life, and counseling education regarding children's understanding of illness concepts. Students were assessed as to their knowledge of children's perceptions of illness as described from a Piagetian developmental viewpoint. Eighty-five graduate students from a southern university in the fields of nursing, social work, child development/child life, and counseling categorized statements made by children regarding their understanding of illness concepts. A data-gathering instrument, developed by Perrin & Perrin (1983), was used to assess the graduate students' ability to assign a developmental age to children's responses to illness-concept questions. Additionally, the students were evaluated on their knowledge of how children perceive illness identification, causality, prevention, treatment, and use of medication. The students correctly categorized by age, children's statements regarding illness concepts only 38% of the time and correctly identified knowledge statements 50% of the time. No remarkable differences were found among the areas of specialization. Without a knowledge base of developmental theories that can be applied directly to clinical practice, nurses are at a disadvantage when working with children and their families. A better understanding of children's communication needs can ultimately lead to improved coping abilities on the part of the child and appropriate interventions on the part of the nurse. The relatively low number of correct responses suggests a need for additional training opportunities that would incorporate cognitive developmental theory into clinical practice for nurses and other health care professionals who plan to work with children.