A call from 40 public health scientists for an end to the continuing humanitarian and environmental catastrophe in Gaza.

An under-recognised aspect of the current humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza is the impact of the war on the environment and the associated risks for human health. This commentary contextualises these impacts against the background of human suffering produced by the overwhelming violence associated with the use of military force against the general population of Gaza. In calling for an immediate cessation to the violence, the authors draw attention to the urgent need to rebuild the health care system and restore the physical and human infrastructure that makes a liveable environment possible and promotes human health and well-being, especially for the most vulnerable in the population. Environmental remediation should therefore form one of the most important parts of international efforts to assist reconstruction, through which we hope Palestinians and Israelis will achieve lasting peace, health, and sustainable development, all as part of accepted international human rights obligations.

Using a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain model to examine alternative timing and duration of the COVID-19 lockdown in Kuwait: what can be done now?

BACKGROUND: Kuwait had its first COVID-19 in late February, and until October 6, 2020 it recorded 108,268 cases and 632 deaths. Despite implementing one of the strictest control measures-including a three-week complete lockdown, there was no sign of a declining epidemic curve. The objective of the current analyses is to determine, hypothetically, the optimal timing and duration of a full lockdown in Kuwait that would result in controlling new infections and lead to a substantial reduction in case hospitalizations. METHODS: The analysis was conducted using a stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC), eight state model that depicts the disease transmission and spread of SARS-CoV 2. Transmission of infection occurs between individuals through social contacts at home, in schools, at work, and during other communal activities. RESULTS: The model shows that a lockdown 10 days before the epidemic peak for 90 days is optimal but a more realistic duration of 45 days can achieve about a 45% reduction in both new infections and case hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: In the view of the forthcoming waves of the COVID19 pandemic anticipated in Kuwait using a correctly-timed and sufficiently long lockdown represents a workable management strategy that encompasses the most stringent form of social distancing with the ability to significantly reduce transmissions and hospitalizations.

Identification of public health priorities, barriers, and solutions for Kuwait using the modified Delphi method for stakeholder consensus.

The rapid modernization and economic developments in Kuwait, have been accompanied by substantial lifestyle changes such as unhealthy diet and physical inactivity. These modifiable behaviours have contributed to increased rates of non-communicable diseases including diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. Delphi Consensus Method was implemented in the current study to draw stakeholders from all sectors together to develop a consensus on the major public health priorities, barriers and solutions. The process involves administration of a series of questions to selected stakeholders through an iterative process that ends when a consensus has been reached among participants. Results of the iteration process identified obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases along with lack of enforcement of laws and regulation as priority health issues. Results also identified lack of national vision for the development of a public health system, lack of multidisciplinary research investigating sources of disease and methods of prevention and improving efficiency with existing resources in implementation and efficiency as the main barriers identified were. Solutions suggested included investing in healthcare prevention, strengthening communication between all involved sectors through intersectoral collaboration, awareness at the primary healthcare setting and use of electronic health records. The results offer an important opportunity for stakeholders in Kuwait to tackle these priority health issues employing the suggested approaches and solution.

Analysis of intervention effectiveness using early outbreak transmission dynamics to guide future pandemic management and decision-making in Kuwait.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a World Health Organization designated pandemic that can result in severe symptoms and death that disproportionately affects older patients or those with comorbidities. Kuwait reported its first imported cases of COVID-19 on February 24, 2020. Analysis of data from the first three months of community transmission of the COVID-19 outbreak in Kuwait can provide important guidance for decision-making when dealing with future SARS-CoV-2 epidemic wave management. The analysis of intervention scenarios can help to evaluate the possible impacts of various outbreak control measures going forward which aim to reduce the effective reproduction number during the initial outbreak wave. Herein we use a modified susceptible-exposed-asymptomatic-infectious-removed (SEAIR) transmission model to estimate the outbreak dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Kuwait. We fit case data from the first 96 days in the model to estimate the effective reproduction number and used Google mobility data to refine community contact matrices. The SEAIR modelled scenarios allow for the analysis of various interventions to determine their effectiveness. The model can help inform future pandemic wave management, not only in Kuwait but for other countries as well.

Commentary: IARC Monographs Program and public health under siege by corporate interests.

The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) evaluates causes of cancer with help from independent international experts in an open and transparent manner. Countries, research and regulatory agencies, and other organizations adopt IARC evaluations for communication of human cancer hazards, and for strategies to prevent cancer. Scientists worldwide endorse IARC cancer evaluations and process. Those with economic interests, however, challenge IARC's cancer evaluations, most recently for glyphosate and red and processed meats, and are conducting a campaign including intervention from US Congressional Representatives to discredit IARC's review process and to undermine financial support-a campaign intimidating to IARC and Working Group members. Challenges to scientific interpretations serve to advance science and should be resolved by scientific experts who do not have conflicts of interest. Such interference does not bode well for the free flow of scientific information that informs and protects the public from risks of cancer.

Cancer Incidence in Asbestos-Exposed Workers: An Update on Four Finnish Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the cancer risks of four different Finnish asbestos-exposed cohorts. We also explored if the cohorts with varying profiles of asbestos exposure exhibited varying relative risks of cancer. METHODS: The incident cancer cases for the asbestos-exposed worker cohorts were updated to the end of 2012 using the files of the Finnish Cancer Registry. The previously formed cohorts consisted of asbestos mine workers, asbestosis patients, asbestos sprayers, and workers who had taken part in a screening study based on asbestos exposure at work. RESULTS: The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) for mesothelioma varied from about threefold to > 100-fold in the different cohorts. In the screening cohort the SIR for mesothelioma was highest in 2003-2007, In other cohorts it was more constant in 5-year period inspection. The SIR for lung cancer was about twofold to tenfold in all except the screening cohort. Asbestos sprayers were at the highest risk of mesothelioma and lung cancer. CONCLUSION: The SIR for mesothelioma is high in all of the cohorts that represent different kinds of asbestos exposure. The smaller SIR for mesothelioma in the screening cohort with lowest level of asbestos exposure might suggest dose-responsiveness between asbestos exposure and mesothelioma. It does seem that the highest risk of lung cancer in these cohorts except in the youngest of the cohorts, the screening cohort, is over. The highest SIR for lung cancer of the asbestosis patient and sprayers cohort is explained by their heavy asbestos exposure.

European Code against Cancer 4th Edition: Environment, occupation and cancer.

People are exposed throughout life to a wide range of environmental and occupational pollutants from different sources at home, in the workplace or in the general environment - exposures that normally cannot be directly controlled by the individual. Several chemicals, metals, dusts, fibres, and occupations have been established to be causally associated with an increased risk of specific cancers, such as cancers of the lung, skin and urinary bladder, and mesothelioma. Significant amounts of air pollutants - mainly from road transport and industry - continue to be emitted in the European Union (EU); an increased occurrence of lung cancer has been attributed to air pollution even in areas below the EU limits for daily air pollution. Additionally, a wide range of pesticides as well as industrial and household chemicals may lead to widespread human exposure, mainly through food and water. For most environmental pollutants, the most effective measures are regulations and community actions aimed at reducing and eliminating the exposures. Thus, it is imperative to raise awareness about environmental and occupational carcinogens in order to motivate individuals to be proactive in advocating protection and supporting initiatives aimed at reducing pollution. Regulations are not homogeneous across EU countries, and protective measures in the workplace are not used consistently by all workers all the time; compliance with regulations needs to be continuously monitored and enforced. Therefore, the recommendation on Environment and Occupation of the 4th edition of the European Code against Cancer, focusing on what individuals can do to reduce their cancer risk, reads: "In the workplace, protect yourself against cancer-causing substances by following health and safety instructions."

Statin use and breast cancer survival: a nationwide cohort study from Finland.

Recent studies have suggested that statins, an established drug group in the prevention of cardiovascular mortality, could delay or prevent breast cancer recurrence but the effect on disease-specific mortality remains unclear. We evaluated risk of breast cancer death among statin users in a population-based cohort of breast cancer patients. The study cohort included all newly diagnosed breast cancer patients in Finland during 1995-2003 (31,236 cases), identified from the Finnish Cancer Registry. Information on statin use before and after the diagnosis was obtained from a national prescription database. We used the Cox proportional hazards regression method to estimate mortality among statin users with statin use as time-dependent variable. A total of 4,151 participants had used statins. During the median follow-up of 3.25 years after the diagnosis (range 0.08-9.0 years) 6,011 participants died, of which 3,619 (60.2%) was due to breast cancer. After adjustment for age, tumor characteristics, and treatment selection, both post-diagnostic and pre-diagnostic statin use were associated with lowered risk of breast cancer death (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.38-0.55 and HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.44-0.67, respectively). The risk decrease by post-diagnostic statin use was likely affected by healthy adherer bias; that is, the greater likelihood of dying cancer patients to discontinue statin use as the association was not clearly dose-dependent and observed already at low-dose/short-term use. The dose- and time-dependence of the survival benefit among pre-diagnostic statin users suggests a possible causal effect that should be evaluated further in a clinical trial testing statins' effect on survival in breast cancer patients.

Increased incidence of Merkel cell carcinoma among younger statin users.

BACKGROUND: Statins (HMG-CoA-reductase inhibitors) are suggested to act as a predisposing factor for autoimmune diseases, have immunomodulatory effects, and possibly prevent some cancer types - the sum of these effects is unknown in cancers of viral aetiology, such as Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC). Aim of our study was to find out whether statin users in Finland have an increased incidence of MCC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A cohort of 224715 male and 230220 female statin users during 1994-2007 was identified from the Prescription Register of the National Social Insurance Institution. This cohort was followed up through the Finnish Cancer Registry for MCC up to 2009. RESULTS: There were altogether 50 cases of MCCs, while the expected number of cases, calculated on the basis of the MCC incidence in comparable Finnish population, was 39.9 (SIR 1.25, 95% CI 0.93-1.65). The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) for MCC in ages <60 years was 3.16 (95% CI 0.65-9.23), in ages 60-74 years 1.94 (95% CI 1.23-2.90) and in ages ≥75 years 0.89 (95% CI 0.57-1.31). The relative risk of MCC decreased significantly, 0.79 fold (95% CI 0.67-0.92), at each 5 year step when moving towards older age groups. There was no significant variation in SIR related to years since starting the statin use, or between the genders. CONCLUSIONS: MCC is the first neuroendocrine cancer linked to statin use. The association is statistically significant and biologically plausible through immunomodulatory effects of statins. The excess of MCCs was observed in atypically young patients, a similar phenomenon as noted earlier in patients with immunocompromising states.