Derivation and Validation of an In-Hospital Mortality Prediction Model Suitable for Profiling Hospital Performance in Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Comparing heart failure (HF) outcomes across hospitals requires adequate risk adjustment. We aimed to develop and validate a model that can be used to compare quality of HF care across hospitals. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included patients with HF aged ≥18 years admitted to one of 433 hospitals that participated in the Premier Inc Data Warehouse. This model (Premier) contained patient demographics, comorbidities, and acute conditions present on admission, derived from administrative and billing records. In a separate data set derived from electronic health records, we validated the Premier model by comparing hospital risk-standardized mortality rates calculated with the Premier model to those calculated with a validated clinical model containing laboratory data (LAPS [Laboratory-Based Acute Physiology Score]). Among the 200 832 admissions in the Premier Inc Data Warehouse, inpatient mortality was 4.0%. The model showed acceptable discrimination in the warehouse data (C statistic 0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.76). In the validation data set, both the Premier model and the LAPS models showed acceptable discrimination (C statistic: Premier: 0.76 [95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.77]; LAPS: 0.78 [95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.80]). Risk-standardized mortality rates for both models ranged from 2% to 7%. A linear regression equation describing the association between Premier- and LAPS-specific mortality rates revealed a regression line with a slope of 0.71 (SE: 0.07). The correlation coefficient of the standardized mortality rates from the 2 models was 0.82. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with a validated model derived from clinical data, an HF mortality model derived from administrative data showed highly correlated risk-standardized mortality rate estimates, suggesting it could be used to identify high- and low-performing hospitals for HF care.

Validation and Comparison of Seven Mortality Prediction Models for Hospitalized Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) inpatient mortality prediction models can help clinicians make treatment decisions and researchers conduct observational studies; however, published models have not been validated in external populations. METHODS AND RESULTS: We compared the performance of 7 models that predict inpatient mortality in patients hospitalized with acute decompensated heart failure: 4 HF-specific mortality prediction models developed from 3 clinical databases (ADHERE [Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry], EFFECT study [Enhanced Feedback for Effective Cardiac Treatment], and GWTG-HF registry [Get With the Guidelines-Heart Failure]); 2 administrative HF mortality prediction models (Premier, Premier+); and a model that uses clinical data but is not specific for HF (Laboratory-Based Acute Physiology Score [LAPS2]). Using a multihospital, electronic health record-derived data set (HealthFacts [Cerner Corp], 2010-2012), we identified patients ≥18 years admitted with HF. Of 13 163 eligible patients, median age was 74 years; half were women; and 27% were black. In-hospital mortality was 4.3%. Model-predicted mortality ranges varied: Premier+ (0.8%-23.1%), LAPS2 (0.7%-19.0%), ADHERE (1.2%-17.4%), EFFECT (1.0%-12.8%), GWTG-Eapen (1.2%-13.8%), and GWTG-Peterson (1.1%-12.8%). The LAPS2 and Premier models outperformed the clinical models (C statistics: LAPS2 0.80 [95% confidence interval 0.78-0.82], Premier models 0.81 [95% confidence interval 0.79-0.83] and 0.76 [95% confidence interval 0.74-0.78], and clinical models 0.68 to 0.70). CONCLUSIONS: Four clinically derived, inpatient, HF mortality models exhibited similar performance, with C statistics near 0.70. Three other models, 1 developed in electronic health record data and 2 developed in administrative data, also were predictive, with C statistics from 0.76 to 0.80. Because every model performed acceptably, the decision to use a given model should depend on practical concerns and intended use.

Pulmonary artery rupture with pseudoaneurysm formation secondary to Swan-Ganz catheter balloon inflation.

Pulmonary artery catheters have been extensively used for hemodynamic assessment over the past several decades. We present a case that highlights the management of a known, but rare and catastrophic complication of pulmonary artery catheter based therapy. An elderly lady with acute decompensated heart failure, severe pulmonary hypertension, and atrial fibrillation on anticoagulation had a pulmonary artery catheter inserted for hemodynamic monitoring. Subsequently, the patient developed acute hemoptysis and damped pulmonary artery pressure waveforms during inflation of the catheter tip balloon. The possibility of pulmonary artery rupture was immediately recognized and confirmed with CT angiogram of the chest. Emergent interventional radiology guided coil embolization of pulmonary artery rupture and pseudoaneurysm was successful.

Targeting hyponatremia and hemodynamics in acute decompensated heart failure: is there a role for vasopressin antagonists?

Current treatment of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) has not reduced the significant morbidity or mortality associated with this disease, and has promoted drug development aimed at neurohormonal targets. Hypervolemic hyponatremia, which is linked to the nonosmotic release of arginine vasopressin, is associated with a poor prognosis in patients with heart failure (HF). Vasopressin acts on V(2) and V(1a) receptors to cause water retention and vasoconstriction, respectively. Clinical trials have demonstrated that vasopressin receptor antagonists (VRAs) are effective in treating hypervolemic hyponatremia in ADHF without a negative impact on renal function. The small hemodynamic benefit seen with VRA use appeared to result from V(2)-receptor antagonist-induced increase in urine output rather than from a vasodilatory drug effect. VRA use in ADHF trials was associated with minimal symptomatic improvement and no impact on morbidity or mortality. At present, clinical trial evidence does not support the routine use of VRAs in ADHF. Given the favorable renal profile of VRAs, studies on the possible benefit of VRAs in ADHF patients with renal insufficiency and diuretic resistance appear warranted.

New heparin dosing regimen for diabetics undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

It has been previously demonstrated that diabetics are less sensitive to heparin compared to non-diabetics. We hypothesized that an initial heparin dose of 80 IU per kilogram administered to diabetics rather than 70 IU per kilogram might yield a more optimal initial ACT of 300 to 350 seconds when glycoprotein IIb/IIIa receptor antagonists are not used. We prospectively studied 130 elective PCI patients without diabetes treated with 70 IU per kilogram of unfractionated heparin and 81 elective PCI patients with diabetes treated with 80 IU per kilogram, and compared the initially achieved ACT. The mean heparin dose given per kg was greater (by intention) in diabetics versus non-diabetics. Despite that, there was no significant difference in the initially achieved ACT in diabetics and non-diabetics.