Proteomic profiling identifies novel independent relationships between inflammatory proteins and myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation has been implicated in the pathogenesis of coronary heart disease, but the relevance and independence of individual inflammatory proteins is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationships between a spectrum of inflammatory proteins and myocardial infarction (MI). METHODS AND RESULTS: A panel of 92 inflammatory proteins was assessed using an OLINK multiplex immunoassay among 432 MI cases (diagnosed < 66 years) and 323 controls. Logistic regression was used to estimate associations between individual proteins and MI, after adjustment for established cardiovascular risk factors and medication use, and stepwise regression to identify proteins with independent effects. Machine learning techniques (Boruta analysis and LASSO regression) and bioinformatic resources were used to examine the concordance of results with those obtained by conventional methods and explore the underlying biological processes to inform the validity of the associations. Among the 92 proteins studied, 62 (67%) had plasma concentrations above the lower limit of detection in at least 50% of samples. Of these, 15 individual proteins were significantly associated with MI after covariate adjustment and correction for multiple testing. Five of these 15 proteins (CDCP1, CD6, IL1-8R1, IL-6, and CXCL1) were independently associated with MI, with up to three-fold higher risks of MI per doubling in plasma concentrations. Findings were further validated using machine learning techniques and biologically focused analyses. CONCLUSIONS: This study, demonstrating independent relationships between five inflammatory proteins and MI, provides important novel insights into the inflammatory hypothesis of MI and the potential utility of proteomic analyses in precision medicine.

The PROCARDIS study conducted a hypothesis-free proteomic study using a panel of 92 inflammatory proteins in cases with early onset myocardial infarction (MI) and healthy controls and identified 15 proteins that were significantly associated with MI, including five proteins that independently contributed to risk of MI. The study used state-of-the-art analytical methods including conventional statistical analysis and machine learning approaches to characterize the proteomic associations with MI. It also integrated bioinformatic and genomic data to consider the biological relevance of the proteins independently associated with MI. The findings provide novel insights into the 'inflammatory basis' of MI and provide support for prioritizing a wider array of inflammatory proteins for further study than have been previously considered in order to discover if therapeutic modification could be used for treatment and prevention of MI.

Oxidized phospholipids on apolipoprotein B-100 versus plasminogen and risk of coronary heart disease in the PROCARDIS study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Oxidized phospholipids carried on the apolipoprotein B-100 (OxPL-apoB) component of Lp(a) are predictive of coronary heart disease (CHD), but the role of oxidized phospholipids carried on plasminogen (OxPL-PLG) is unknown. We examined the independent effects of OxPL-apoB and OxPL-PLG for risk of CHD before and after adjustment for Lp(a). METHODS: Plasma levels of OxPL-apoB, OxPL-PLG, plasminogen and Lp(a) were measured in the PROCARDIS study of early-onset CHD (906 cases/858 controls). Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratios (OR) for each biomarker with CHD after adjustment for established risk factors. RESULTS: Mean levels of OxPL-apoB were higher in cases than controls, but levels of OxPL-PLG and plasminogen were similar. For OxPL-apoB, individuals in the top vs bottom fifth had 2-fold higher age and sex-adjusted OR of CHD (OR = 2.61 [95%CI: 1.91, 3.55]), which were partially attenuated after adjustment for established risk factors. The findings for OxPL-apoB and CHD in PROCARDIS were comparable with those of a meta-analysis of all such studies. However, the associations of OxPL-apoB with CHD were fully attenuated by additional adjustment for Lp(a) (OR = 0.93 [0.54,1.60]). Neither OxPL-PLG nor plasminogen were associated with CHD. Overall, there were no differences in the predictive value for CHD of high vs normal levels (<20th or >80th percentile) of OxPL-apoB, OxPL-PLG, plasminogen or Lp(a) after stratifying for each other. CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the context-dependency of OxPL in plasma and suggest that their associated risk of CHD is chiefly mediated by their carriage on Lp(a).

Independent effects of adiposity measures on risk of atrial fibrillation in men and women: a study of 0.5 million individuals.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) has a higher prevalence in men than in women and is associated with measures of adiposity and lean mass (LM). However, it remains uncertain whether the risks of AF associated with these measures vary by sex. METHODS: Among 477 904 UK Biobank participants aged 40-69 without prior AF, 23 134 incident AF cases were identified (14 400 men, 8734 women; median follow-up 11.1 years). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the covariate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) describing the association of AF with weight, measures of adiposity [fat mass (FM), waist circumference (WC)] and LM, and their independent relevance, by sex. RESULTS: Weight and WC were independently associated with risk of AF [HR: 1.25 (1.23-1.27) per 10 kg, HR: 1.11 (1.09-1.14) per 10 cm, respectively], with comparable effects in both sexes. The association with weight was principally driven by LM, which, per 5 kg, conferred double the risk of AF compared with FM when mutually adjusted [HR: 1.20 (1.19-1.21), HR: 1.10 (1.09-1.11), respectively]; however, the effect of LM was weaker in men than in women (p-interaction = 4.3 x 10-9). Comparing the relative effects of LM, FM and WC identified different patterns within each sex; LM was the strongest predictor for both, whereas WC was stronger than FM in men but not in women. CONCLUSIONS: LM and FM (as constituents of weight) and WC are risk factors for AF. However, the independent relevance of general adiposity for AF was more limited in men than in women. The relevance of both WC and LM suggests a potentially important role for visceral adiposity and muscle mass in AF development.

Assessment of the causal relevance of ECG parameters for risk of atrial fibrillation: A mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial electrical and structural remodelling in older individuals with cardiovascular risk factors has been associated with changes in surface electrocardiographic (ECG) parameters (e.g., prolongation of the PR interval) and higher risks of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, it has been difficult to establish whether altered ECG parameters are the cause or a consequence of the myocardial substrate leading to AF. This study aimed to examine the potential causal relevance of ECG parameters on risk of AF using mendelian randomisation (MR). METHODS AND FINDINGS: Weighted genetic scores explaining lifelong differences in P-wave duration, PR interval, and QT interval were constructed, and associations between these ECG scores and risk of AF were estimated among 278,792 UK Biobank participants (mean age: 57 years at recruitment; 19,132 AF cases). The independent genetic variants contributing to each of the separate ECG scores, and their corresponding weights, were based on published genome-wide association studies. In UK Biobank, genetic scores representing a 5 ms longer P-wave duration or PR interval were significantly associated with lower risks of AF (odds ratio [OR] 0.91; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.87-0.96, P = 2 × 10-4 and OR 0.94; 95% CI: 0.93-0.96, P = 2 × 10-19, respectively), while longer QT interval was not significantly associated with AF. These effects were independently replicated among a further 17,931 AF cases from the AFGen Consortium. Investigation of potential mechanistic pathways showed that differences in ECG parameters associated with specific ion channel genes had effects on risk of AF consistent with the overall scores, while the overall scores were not associated with changes in left atrial size. Limitations of the study included the inherent assumptions of MR, restriction to individuals of European ancestry, and possible restriction of results to the normal ECG ranges represented in UK Biobank. CONCLUSIONS: In UK Biobank, we observed evidence suggesting a causal relationship between lifelong differences in ECG parameters (particularly PR interval) that reflect longer atrial conduction times and a lower risk of AF. These findings, which appear to be independent of atrial size and concomitant cardiovascular comorbidity, support the relevance of varying mechanisms underpinning AF and indicate that more individualised treatment strategies warrant consideration.

Serious Adverse Effects of Extended-release Niacin/Laropiprant: Results From the Heart Protection Study 2-Treatment of HDL to Reduce the Incidence of Vascular Events (HPS2-THRIVE) Trial.

PURPOSE: The Heart Protection Study 2-Treatment of HDL to Reduce the Incidence of Vascular Events (HPS2-THRIVE) trial of patients at high risk of vascular disease found that adding extended-release niacin-laropiprant to intensive statin-based LDL-lowering therapy had no benefit on cardiovascular outcomes. However, the trial also identified previously unrecognized serious adverse effects (including new-onset diabetes, bleeding, and infection). Our objective was to explore the safety profile of niacin-laropiprant and examine whether any patients were at lower (or higher) risk of its adverse effects. METHODS: HPS2-THRIVE was a randomized, double-blind trial of niacin-laropiprant (2000/40 mg/d) versus placebo among 25,673 patients at high risk of vascular disease. Information on all serious adverse events was collected during a median of 3.9 years of study treatment. Effects of niacin-laropiprant on new-onset diabetes, disturbances of diabetes control, bleeding, infection, and gastrointestinal upset were estimated by (1) time after randomization, (2) severity, (3) baseline characteristics, (4) baseline risk of the adverse event of interest, and (5) risk of major vascular event. FINDINGS: The hazard ratio (HR) for new-onset diabetes with niacin/laropiprant was 1.32 (95% CI, 1.16-1.51; P < .001), which corresponded to an absolute excess of 4 people (95% CI, 2-6) developing diabetes per 1000 person-years in the study population as a whole. Among the 8299 participants with diabetes at baseline, the HR for serious disturbances in diabetes control was 1.56 (95% CI, 1.35-1.80), corresponding to an absolute excess of 12 (95% CI, 8-16) per 1000 person-years. The HR was 1.38 (95% CI, 1.17-1.63; P < .001) for serious bleeding, corresponding to an absolute excess of 2 (95% CI, 1-3) per 1000 person-years and 1.22 (95% CI, 1.11-1.34; P < .001) for serious infection, corresponding to an absolute excess of 4 (95% CI, 2-6) per 1000 person-years. The excess risks of these serious adverse events were larger in the first year after starting niacin-laropiprant therapy than in later years (except for the excess of infection, which did not appear to attenuate with time), and the risks of nonfatal and fatal events were similarly increased. The absolute excesses of each of these adverse effects were similar regardless of the baseline risk of the outcome. IMPLICATIONS: Practitioners or patients considering the use of niacin (in addition to, or instead of, a statin) despite the lack of evidence of cardiovascular benefits (at least when added to effective statin therapy) should take account of the significant risks of these serious adverse effects when making such decisions. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00461630.

Relative effects of LDL-C on ischemic stroke and coronary disease: A Mendelian randomization study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the causal relevance of lifelong differences in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) for ischemic stroke (IS) relative to that for coronary heart disease (CHD) using a Mendelian randomization approach. METHODS: We undertook a 2-sample Mendelian randomization, based on summary data, to estimate the causal relevance of LDL-C for risk of IS and CHD. Information from 62 independent genetic variants with genome-wide significant effects on LDL-C levels was used to estimate the causal effects of LDL-C for IS and IS subtypes (based on 12,389 IS cases from METASTROKE) and for CHD (based on 60,801 cases from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D). We then assessed the effects of LDL-C on IS and CHD for heterogeneity. RESULTS: A 1 mmol/L higher genetically determined LDL-C was associated with a 50% higher risk of CHD (odds ratio [OR] 1.49, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32-1.68, p = 1.1 × 10-8). By contrast, the causal effect of LDL-C was much weaker for IS (OR 1.12, 95% CI 0.96-1.30, p = 0.14; p for heterogeneity = 2.6 × 10-3) and, in particular, for cardioembolic stroke (OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.84-1.33, p = 0.64; p for heterogeneity = 8.6 × 10-3) when compared with that for CHD. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast with the consistent effects of LDL-C-lowering therapies on IS and CHD, genetic variants that confer lifelong LDL-C differences show a weaker effect on IS than on CHD. The relevance of etiologically distinct IS subtypes may contribute to the differences observed.

Plasma cytokines and risk of coronary heart disease in the PROCARDIS study.

Objective: The aims of the study were to examine the associations of plasma levels of five cytokines (interleukin (IL)-6, IL-5, interferon-gamma (IFN-γ), tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) and IL-6 receptor (IL-6R)) and C reactive protein (CRP) with risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Methods: In a case-control study of 931 CHD cases and 974 controls, logistic regression was used to estimate the OR and 95% CI of CHD for extreme thirds of biomarkers after adjustment for established risk factors. Sensitivity analyses were conducted in non-statin and in non-aspirin users. Results: Plasma levels of CRP were moderately correlated with IL-6 (r=0.45) in controls, but more weakly correlated with other cytokines. Likewise, all other cytokines were only weakly correlated with each other. After adjustment for established risk factors, the ORs (95% CI) for CHD comparing extreme thirds of cytokine levels (defined in controls) were 2.53 (1.86 to 3.43) for IL-6, 1.46 (1.11 to 1.93) for IL-5 and 1.46 (1.09 to 1.95) for IFN-γ, respectively. However, neither TNF-α, IL-6R nor CRP was significantly associated with CHD. After further adjustment for the associated cytokines, only IL-5 (1.34; 1.00 to 1.80) and IL-6 (2.39; 1.73 to 3.30) remained significantly associated with CHD. The risk associations of cytokines in non-users of statins or aspirin were comparable with the overall population. Conclusions: This study confirmed the importance of IL-6 as the most strongly associated cytokine with CHD risk, but also demonstrated novel and independent associations of IL-5 with CHD that warrant further investigation using larger panels of cytokines.

Impact of Apolipoprotein(a) Isoform Size on Lipoprotein(a) Lowering in the HPS2-THRIVE Study.

BACKGROUND: Genetic studies have shown lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a]) to be an important causal risk factor for coronary disease. Apolipoprotein(a) isoform size is the chief determinant of Lp(a) levels, but its impact on the benefits of therapies that lower Lp(a) remains unclear. METHODS: HPS2-THRIVE (Heart Protection Study 2-Treatment of HDL to Reduce the Incidence of Vascular Events) is a randomized trial of niacin-laropiprant versus placebo on a background of simvastatin therapy. Plasma Lp(a) levels at baseline and 1 year post-randomization were measured in 3978 participants from the United Kingdom and China. Apolipoprotein(a) isoform size, estimated by the number of kringle IV domains, was measured by agarose gel electrophoresis and the predominantly expressed isoform identified. RESULTS: Allocation to niacin-laropiprant reduced mean Lp(a) by 12 (SE, 1) nmol/L overall and 34 (6) nmol/L in the top quintile by baseline Lp(a) level (Lp[a] ≥128 nmol/L). The mean proportional reduction in Lp(a) with niacin-laropiprant was 31% but varied strongly with predominant apolipoprotein(a) isoform size (PTrend=4×10-29) and was only 18% in the quintile with the highest baseline Lp(a) level and low isoform size. Estimates from genetic studies suggest that these Lp(a) reductions during the short term of the trial might yield proportional reductions in coronary risk of ≈2% overall and 6% in the top quintile by Lp(a) levels. CONCLUSIONS: Proportional reductions in Lp(a) were dependent on apolipoprotein(a) isoform size. Taking this into account, the likely benefits of niacin-laropiprant on coronary risk through Lp(a) lowering are small. Novel therapies that reduce high Lp(a) levels by at least 80 nmol/L (≈40%) may be needed to produce worthwhile benefits in people at the highest risk because of Lp(a). CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00461630.

Differential effects of PCSK9 variants on risk of coronary disease and ischaemic stroke.

Aims: PCSK9 genetic variants that have large effects on low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and coronary heart disease (CHD) have prompted the development of therapeutic PCSK9-inhibition. However, there is limited evidence that PCSK9 variants are associated with ischaemic stroke (IS). Methods and results: Associations of the loss-of-function PCSK9 genetic variant (rs11591147; R46L), and five additional PCSK9 variants, with IS and IS subtypes (cardioembolic, large vessel, and small vessel) were estimated in a meta-analysis involving 10 307 IS cases and 19 326 controls of European ancestry. They were then compared with the associations of these variants with LDL-C levels (in up to 172 970 individuals) and CHD (in up to 60 801 CHD cases and 123 504 controls). The rs11591147 T allele was associated with 0.5 mmol/L lower LDL-C level (P = 9 × 10-143) and 23% lower CHD risk [odds ratio (OR): 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69-0.87, P = 7 × 10-6]. However, it was not associated with risk of IS (OR: 1.04, 95% CI: 0.84-1.28, P = 0.74) or IS subtypes. Information from additional PCSK9 variants also indicated consistently weaker effects on IS than on CHD. Conclusion: PCSK9 genetic variants that confer life-long lower PCSK9 and LDL-C levels appear to have significantly weaker, if any, associations with risk of IS than with risk of CHD. By contrast, similar proportional reductions in risks of IS and CHD have been observed in randomized trials of therapeutic PCSK9-inhibition. These findings have implications for our understanding of when Mendelian randomization can be relied upon to predict the effects of therapeutic interventions.

Mendelian randomization with fine-mapped genetic data: Choosing from large numbers of correlated instrumental variables.

Mendelian randomization uses genetic variants to make causal inferences about the effect of a risk factor on an outcome. With fine-mapped genetic data, there may be hundreds of genetic variants in a single gene region any of which could be used to assess this causal relationship. However, using too many genetic variants in the analysis can lead to spurious estimates and inflated Type 1 error rates. But if only a few genetic variants are used, then the majority of the data is ignored and estimates are highly sensitive to the particular choice of variants. We propose an approach based on summarized data only (genetic association and correlation estimates) that uses principal components analysis to form instruments. This approach has desirable theoretical properties: it takes the totality of data into account and does not suffer from numerical instabilities. It also has good properties in simulation studies: it is not particularly sensitive to varying the genetic variants included in the analysis or the genetic correlation matrix, and it does not have greatly inflated Type 1 error rates. Overall, the method gives estimates that are less precise than those from variable selection approaches (such as using a conditional analysis or pruning approach to select variants), but are more robust to seemingly arbitrary choices in the variable selection step. Methods are illustrated by an example using genetic associations with testosterone for 320 genetic variants to assess the effect of sex hormone related pathways on coronary artery disease risk, in which variable selection approaches give inconsistent inferences.

Genetic loci on chromosome 5 are associated with circulating levels of interleukin-5 and eosinophil count in a European population with high risk for cardiovascular disease.

IL-5 is a Th2 cytokine which activates eosinophils and is suggested to have an atheroprotective role. Genetic variants in the IL5 locus have been associated with increased risk of CAD and ischemic stroke. In this study we aimed to identify genetic variants associated with IL-5 concentrations and apply a Mendelian randomisation approach to assess IL-5 levels for causal effect on intima-media thickness in a European population at high risk of coronary artery disease. We analysed SNPs within robustly associated candidate loci for immune, inflammatory, metabolic and cardiovascular traits. We identified 2 genetic loci for IL-5 levels (chromosome 5, rs56183820, BETA=0.11, P=6.73E(-5) and chromosome 14, rs4902762, BETA=0.12, P=5.76E(-6)) and one for eosinophil count (rs72797327, BETA=-0.10, P=1.41E(-6)). Both chromosome 5 loci were in the vicinity of the IL5 gene, however the association with IL-5 levels failed to replicate in a meta-analysis of 2 independent cohorts (rs56183820, BETA=0.04, P=0.2763, I(2)=24, I(2)-P=0.2516). No significant associations were observed between SNPs associated with IL-5 levels or eosinophil count and IMT measures. Expression quantitative trait analyses indicate effects of the IL-5 and eosinophil-associated SNPs on RAD50 mRNA expression levels (rs12652920 (r2=0.93 with rs56183820) BETA=-0.10, P=8.64E(-6) and rs11739623 (r2=0.96 with rs72797327) BETA=-0.23, P=1.74E(-29), respectively). Our data do not support a role for IL-5 levels and eosinophil count in intima-media thickness, however SNPs associated with IL-5 and eosinophils might influence stability of the atherosclerotic plaque via modulation of RAD50 levels.

Use of secondary preventive medications in patients with atherosclerotic disease in urban China: a cross-sectional study of 16, 860 patients.

BACKGROUND: Despite considerable improvements in the care of patients with cardiovascular disease in various populations over the last few decades, there are still limited data about long-term treatment patterns among patients with various atherosclerotic vascular conditions in China, especially the use of statin therapy. METHODS: Between June 2007 and October 2009, 16 860 patients aged 50 - 80 years with established history of atherosclerotic vascular disease (coronary heart disease (CHD), atherosclerotic cerebrovascular disease (CVD), or peripheral arterial disease (PAD)) from 51 hospitals in 14 cities of China were screened for a large randomized trial. Detailed information about current use of statins and various other treatments was recorded and analyzed by prior disease history, adjusting for various baseline characteristics. RESULTS: Among the 16 860 patients, the mean age was 63 years and 74% were male. Overall, 78% of the patients had documented CHD, 40% had CVD, 5% had PAD and 21% reported more than one condition. The median time from initial diagnosis of vascular disease to screening was 18 months. At screening, the proportions who took various treatments were 83% for antiplatelet agents, 49% for beta-blockers, 47% for statins and 28% for angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors. The proportion treated with statin was much higher in CHD than in CVD or PAD patients (61% vs. 10% vs. 22% respectively) and decreased significantly with time from initial diagnosis. Simvastatin (mainly 20 mg) and atorvastatin (mainly 10 mg) each accounted for about 40% of total statin use. CONCLUSIONS: In urban China, there is still significant underuse of various proven secondary preventive therapies, with particularly low use of statins in patients with ischaemic stroke.

A practical comparison of blinded methods for sample size reviews in survival data clinical trials.

This paper presents practical approaches to the problem of sample size re-estimation in the case of clinical trials with survival data when proportional hazards can be assumed. When data are readily available at the time of the review, on a full range of survival experiences across the recruited patients, it is shown that, as expected, performing a blinded re-estimation procedure is straightforward and can help to maintain the trial's pre-specified error rates. Two alternative methods for dealing with the situation where limited survival experiences are available at the time of the sample size review are then presented and compared. In this instance, extrapolation is required in order to undertake the sample size re-estimation. Worked examples, together with results from a simulation study are described. It is concluded that, as in the standard case, use of either extrapolation approach successfully protects the trial error rates.

A novel adaptive design strategy increases the efficiency of clinical trials in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Adaptive seamless designs (ASDs) have been proposed to test multiple candidate compounds using an interim decision point which allows potentially effective therapies to be taken into the next design stage and to be assessed using a phase III outcome. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether ASDs are feasible in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) and to compare them with conventional trial designs. METHODS: We develop an innovative adaptive trial design for SPMS, which builds on recent developments in statistical methodology. A literature search and individual clinical datasets were used to inform a framework to run simulations to evaluate the proposed design. RESULTS: ASDs are feasible in SPMS with MRI informing an interim decision point and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) as the final disability endpoint. Furthermore ASDs are more efficient than conventional designs with sample size savings of up to 40%. Sample sizes of 1000-1250 patients are sufficient to test up to four experimental treatments. Controlled recruitment is important to realize the full benefits of ASDs. CONCLUSIONS: Although more complex in design, ASDs have the potential to be more efficient and more powerful than conventional designs.

Using historical lesion volume data in the design of a new phase II clinical trial in acute stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Clinical research into the treatment of acute stroke is complicated, is costly, and has often been unsuccessful. Developments in imaging technology based on computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging scans offer opportunities for screening experimental therapies during phase II testing so as to deliver only the most promising interventions to phase III. We discuss the design and the appropriate sample size for phase II studies in stroke based on lesion volume. METHODS: Determination of the relation between analyses of lesion volumes and of neurologic outcomes is illustrated using data from placebo trial patients from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive. The size of an effect on lesion volume that would lead to a clinically relevant treatment effect in terms of a measure, such as modified Rankin score (mRS), is found. The sample size to detect that magnitude of effect on lesion volume is then calculated. Simulation is used to evaluate different criteria for proceeding from phase II to phase III. RESULTS: The odds ratios for mRS correspond roughly to the square root of odds ratios for lesion volume, implying that for equivalent power specifications, sample sizes based on lesion volumes should be about one fourth of those based on mRS. Relaxation of power requirements, appropriate for phase II, lead to further sample size reductions. For example, a phase III trial comparing a novel treatment with placebo with a total sample size of 1518 patients might be motivated from a phase II trial of 126 patients comparing the same 2 treatment arms. Discussion- Definitive phase III trials in stroke should aim to demonstrate significant effects of treatment on clinical outcomes. However, more direct outcomes such as lesion volume can be useful in phase II for determining whether such phase III trials should be undertaken in the first place.

A simple two-stage design for quantitative responses with application to a study in diabetic neuropathic pain.

Two-stage designs offer substantial advantages for early phase II studies. The interim analysis following the first stage allows the study to be stopped for futility, or more positively, it might lead to early progression to the trials needed for late phase II and phase III. If the study is to continue to its second stage, then there is an opportunity for a revision of the total sample size. Two-stage designs have been implemented widely in oncology studies in which there is a single treatment arm and patient responses are binary. In this paper the case of two-arm comparative studies in which responses are quantitative is considered. This setting is common in therapeutic areas other than oncology. It will be assumed that observations are normally distributed, but that there is some doubt concerning their standard deviation, motivating the need for sample size review. The work reported has been motivated by a study in diabetic neuropathic pain, and the development of the design for that trial is described in detail.

Bayesian sample size for exploratory clinical trials incorporating historical data.

This paper presents a simple Bayesian approach to sample size determination in clinical trials. It is required that the trial should be large enough to ensure that the data collected will provide convincing evidence either that an experimental treatment is better than a control or that it fails to improve upon control by some clinically relevant difference. The method resembles standard frequentist formulations of the problem, and indeed in certain circumstances involving 'non-informative' prior information it leads to identical answers. In particular, unlike many Bayesian approaches to sample size determination, use is made of an alternative hypothesis that an experimental treatment is better than a control treatment by some specified magnitude. The approach is introduced in the context of testing whether a single stream of binary observations are consistent with a given success rate p(0). Next the case of comparing two independent streams of normally distributed responses is considered, first under the assumption that their common variance is known and then for unknown variance. Finally, the more general situation in which a large sample is to be collected and analysed according to the asymptotic properties of the score statistic is explored.