Climate change increases threat to plant diversity in tropical forests of Central America and southern Mexico.

Global biodiversity is negatively affected by anthropogenic climate change. As species distributions shift due to increasing temperatures and precipitation fluctuations, many species face the risk of extinction. In this study, we explore the expected trend for plant species distributions in Central America and southern Mexico under two alternative Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) portraying moderate (RCP4.5) and severe (RCP8.5) increases in greenhouse gas emissions, combined with two species dispersal assumptions (limited and unlimited), for the 2061-2080 climate forecast. Using an ensemble approach employing three techniques to generate species distribution models, we classified 1924 plant species from the region's (sub)tropical forests according to IUCN Red List categories. To infer the spatial and taxonomic distribution of species' vulnerability under each scenario, we calculated the proportion of species in a threat category (Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered) at a pixel resolution of 30 arc seconds and by family. Our results show a high proportion (58-67%) of threatened species among the four experimental scenarios, with the highest proportion under RCP8.5 and limited dispersal. Threatened species were concentrated in montane areas and avoided lowland areas where conditions are likely to be increasingly inhospitable. Annual precipitation and diurnal temperature range were the main drivers of species' relative vulnerability. Our approach identifies strategic montane areas and taxa of conservation concern that merit urgent inclusion in management plans to improve climatic resilience in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot. Such information is necessary to develop policies that prioritize vulnerable elements and mitigate threats to biodiversity under climate change.

Maize and ancient Maya droughts.

The ancient Maya culture of Mesoamerica shaped landscapes for centuries, in an area where maize (Zea mays) cultivation is considered a fundamental crop in the diet of present and ancient Mesoamerican cultures. Pollen records from sites with different environmental and climatic conditions of the Yucatán Peninsula (Mexico) and Peten (Guatemala) evidence a clear relationship between increased maize pollen and periods of reduced precipitation caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) while moist periods are characterized by low maize pollen presence. ENSO conditions were not evenly distributed across the Yucatán Peninsula, and regional droughts vary according to regional climate and geographical conditions. Our results indicate a strong relationship of increased maize and tropical forest decrease with dry periods, while the Late Preclassic Humid Period (ca. 500-200 BCE) is characterized by the absence of maize pollen. The dry Late Preclassic (300 BCE-250 CE) was a key period for increased maize production, suggesting a new conceptualization of maize. Maize changed from a basic diet crop to a pragmatic product to face adverse environmental conditions.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation affects the water relations of tree species in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico.

We evaluated the effect of ENSO 2015/16 on the water relations of eight tree species in seasonally dry tropical forests of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The functional traits: wood density, relative water content in wood, xylem water potential and specific leaf area were recorded during the rainy season and compared in three consecutive years: 2015 (pre-ENSO conditions), 2016 (ENSO conditions) and 2017 (post-ENSO conditions). We analyzed tree size on the capacity to respond to water deficit, considering young and mature trees, and if this response is distinctive in species with different leaf patterns in seasonally dry tropical forests distributed along a precipitation gradient (700-1200 mm year-1). These traits showed a strong decrease in all species in response to water stress in 2016, mainly in the driest site. Deciduous species had lower wood density, higher predawn water potential and higher specific leaf area than evergreen species. In all cases, mature trees were more tolerant to drought. In the driest site, there was a significant reduction in water status, regardless of their leaf phenology, indicating that seasonally dry tropical forests are highly vulnerable to ENSO. Vulnerability of deciduous species is intensified in the driest areas and in the youngest trees.

Secondary Succession under invasive species (Pteridium aquilinum) conditions in a seasonal dry tropical forest in southeastern Mexico.

The role of invasive species in ecosystem functioning represents one of the main challenges in ecology. Pteridium aquilinum is a successful cosmopolitan invasive species with negative effects on the ecological mechanisms that allow secondary succession. In this study, we evaluated the influence of P. aquilinumon secondary succession under different disturbances in a seasonal dry forest of the Yucatán Peninsula. We determined species richness, composition and the relative importance value in four sampling units. Fabaceae followed by Asteraceae, Meliaceae, Rubiaceae, Sapindaceae and Verbenaceae were the most species rich families. A dissimilarity analysis determined significant differences in beta diversity between sampling units. With a generalized linear model we found that species richness was best explained by site conditions, followed by calcium and soil organic matter. Also, the generalized linear model showed that abundance resulted in a strong correlation with site conditions and soil characteristics. Specific soil conditions related to phosphoro and calcium were also detected as beneficiary to the successional processes. Our results suggest that applying fire restriction and periodic cutting of the bracken fern, this can increase a higher diversity of species.