Declines and peaks in NO2 pollution during the multiple waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in the New York metropolitan area.

The COVID-19 pandemic created an extreme natural experiment in which sudden changes in human behavior and economic activity resulted in significant declines in nitrogen oxide (NO x ) emissions, immediately after strict lockdowns were imposed. Here we examined the impact of multiple waves and response phases of the pandemic on nitrogen dioxide (NO2) dynamics and the role of meteorology in shaping relative contributions from different emission sectors to NO2 pollution in post-pandemic New York City. Long term (> 3.5 years), high frequency measurements from a network of ground-based Pandora spectrometers were combined with TROPOMI satellite retrievals, meteorological data, mobility trends, and atmospheric transport model simulations to quantify changes in NO2 across the New York metropolitan area. The stringent lockdown measures after the first pandemic wave resulted in a decline in top-down NO x emissions by approx. 30% on top of long-term trends, in agreement with sector-specific changes in NO x emissions. Ground-based measurements showed a sudden drop in total column NO2 in spring 2020, by up to 36% in Manhattan and 19%-29% in Queens, New Jersey (NJ), and Connecticut (CT), and a clear weakening (by 16%) of the typical weekly NO2 cycle. Extending our analysis to more than a year after the initial lockdown captured a gradual recovery in NO2 across the NY/NJ/CT tri-state area in summer and fall 2020, as social restrictions eased, followed by a second decline in NO2 coincident with the second wave of the pandemic and resurgence of lockdown measures in winter 2021. Meteorology was not found to have a strong NO2 biassing effect in New York City after the first pandemic wave. Winds, however, were favorable for low NO2 conditions in Manhattan during the second wave of the pandemic, resulting in larger column NO2 declines than expected based on changes in transportation emissions alone. Meteorology played a key role in shaping the relative contributions from different emission sectors to NO with low-speed (< 5 ms-1) SW-SE winds enhancing contributions from the high-emitting power-generation sector in NJ and Queens and driving particularly high NO2 pollution episodes in Manhattan, even during - and despite - the stringent early lockdowns. These results have important implications for air quality management in New York City, and highlight the value of high resolution NO2 measurements in assessing the effects of rapid meteorological changes on air quality conditions and the effectiveness of sector-specific NO x emission control strategies.

US COVID-19 Shutdown Demonstrates Importance of Background NO2 in Inferring NOx Emissions From Satellite NO2 Observations.

Satellite nitrogen dioxide (NO2) measurements are used extensively to infer nitrogen oxide emissions and their trends, but interpretation can be complicated by background contributions to the NO2 column sensed from space. We use the step decrease of US anthropogenic emissions from the COVID-19 shutdown to compare the responses of NO2 concentrations observed at surface network sites and from satellites (Ozone Monitoring Instrument [OMI], Tropospheric Ozone Monitoring Instrument [TROPOMI]). After correcting for differences in meteorology, surface NO2 measurements for 2020 show decreases of 20% in March-April and 10% in May-August compared to 2019. The satellites show much weaker responses in March-June and no decrease in July-August, consistent with a large background contribution to the NO2 column. Inspection of the long-term OMI trend over remote US regions shows a rising summertime NO2 background from 2010 to 2019 potentially attributable to wildfires.

Evaluating Sentinel-5P TROPOMI tropospheric NO2 column densities with airborne and Pandora spectrometers near New York City and Long Island Sound.

Airborne and ground-based Pandora spectrometer NO2 column measurements were collected during the 2018 Long Island Sound Tropospheric Ozone Study (LISTOS) in the New York City/Long Island Sound region, which coincided with early observations from the Sentinel-5P TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) instrument. Both airborne- and ground-based measurements are used to evaluate the TROPOMI NO2 Tropospheric Vertical Column (TrVC) product v1.2 in this region, which has high spatial and temporal heterogeneity in NO2. First, airborne and Pandora TrVCs are compared to evaluate the uncertainty of the airborne TrVC and establish the spatial representativeness of the Pandora observations. The 171 coincidences between Pandora and airborne TrVCs are found to be highly correlated (r 2 =0.92 and slope of 1.03), with the largest individual differences being associated with high temporal and/or spatial variability. These reference measurements (Pandora and airborne) are complementary with respect to temporal coverage and spatial representativity. Pandora spectrometers can provide continuous long-term measurements but may lack areal representativity when operated in direct-sun mode. Airborne spectrometers are typically only deployed for short periods of time, but their observations are more spatially representative of the satellite measurements with the added capability of retrieving at subpixel resolutions of 250m×250m over the entire TROPOMI pixels they overfly. Thus, airborne data are more correlated with TROPOMI measurements (r 2 = 0.96) than Pandora measurements are with TROPOMI (r 2 = 0.84). The largest outliers between TROPOMI and the reference measurements appear to stem from too spatially coarse a priori surface reflectivity (0.5°) over bright urban scenes. In this work, this results during cloud-free scenes that, at times, are affected by errors in the TROPOMI cloud pressure retrieval impacting the calculation of tropospheric air mass factors. This factor causes a high bias in TROPOMI TrVCs of 4%-11%. Excluding these cloud-impacted points, TROPOMI has an overall low bias of 19%-33% during the LISTOS timeframe of June-September 2018. Part of this low bias is caused by coarse a priori profile input from the TM5-MP model; replacing these profiles with those from a 12 km North American Model-Community Multiscale Air Quality (NAMCMAQ) analysis results in a 12%-14% increase in the TrVCs. Even with this improvement, the TROPOMI-NAMCMAQ TrVCs have a 7%-19% low bias, indicating needed improvement in a priori assumptions in the air mass factor calculation. Future work should explore additional impacts of a priori inputs to further assess the remaining low biases in TROPOMI using these datasets.

Evaluating the impact of spatial resolution on tropospheric NO2 column comparisons within urban areas using high-resolution airborne data.

NASA deployed the GeoTASO airborne UV-Visible spectrometer in May-June 2017 to produce high resolution (approximately 250 × 250 m) gapless NO2 datasets over the western shore of Lake Michigan and over the Los Angeles Basin. The results collected show that the airborne tropospheric vertical column retrievals compare well with ground-based Pandora spectrometer column NO2 observations (r2=0.91 and slope of 1.03). Apparent disagreements between the two measurements can be sensitive to the coincidence criteria and are often associated with large local variability, including rapid temporal changes and spatial heterogeneity that may be observed differently by the sunward viewing Pandora observations. The gapless mapping strategy executed during the 2017 GeoTASO flights provides data suitable for averaging to coarser areal resolutions to simulate satellite retrievals. As simulated satellite pixel area increases to values typical of TEMPO, TROPOMI, and OMI, the agreement with Pandora measurements degraded, particularly for the most polluted columns as localized large pollution enhancements observed by Pandora and GeoTASO are spatially averaged with nearby less-polluted locations within the larger area representative of the satellite spatial resolutions (aircraft-to-Pandora slope: TEMPO scale=0.88; TROPOMI scale=0.77; OMI scale=0.57). In these two regions, Pandora and TEMPO or TROPOMI have the potential to compare well at least up to pollution scales of 30×1015 molecules cm-2. Two publicly available OMI tropospheric NO2 retrievals are both found to be biased low with respect to these Pandora observations. However, the agreement improves when higher resolution a priori inputs are used for the tropospheric air mass factor calculation (NASA V3 Standard Product slope = 0.18 and Berkeley High Resolution Product slope=0.30). Overall, this work explores best practices for satellite validation strategies with Pandora direct-sun observations by showing the sensitivity to product spatial resolution and demonstrating how the high spatial resolution NO2 data retrieved from airborne spectrometers, such as GeoTASO, can be used with high temporal resolution ground-based column observations to evaluate the influence of spatial heterogeneity on validation results.

Evaluating a Space-Based Indicator of Surface Ozone-NO x -VOC Sensitivity Over Midlatitude Source Regions and Application to Decadal Trends.

Determining effective strategies for mitigating surface ozone (O3) pollution requires knowledge of the relative ambient concentrations of its precursors, NO x , and VOCs. The space-based tropospheric column ratio of formaldehyde to NO2 (FNR) has been used as an indicator to identify NO x -limited versus NO x -saturated O3 formation regimes. Quantitative use of this indicator ratio is subject to three major uncertainties: (1) the split between NO x -limited and NO x -saturated conditions may shift in space and time, (2) the ratio of the vertically integrated column may not represent the near-surface environment, and (3) satellite products contain errors. We use the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model to evaluate the quantitative utility of FNR observed from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument over three northern midlatitude source regions. We find that FNR in the model surface layer is a robust predictor of the simulated near-surface O3 production regime. Extending this surface-based predictor to a column-based FNR requires accounting for differences in the HCHO and NO2 vertical profiles. We compare four combinations of two OMI HCHO and NO2 retrievals with modeled FNR. The spatial and temporal correlations between the modeled and satellite-derived FNR vary with the choice of NO2 product, while the mean offset depends on the choice of HCHO product. Space-based FNR indicates that the spring transition to NO x -limited regimes has shifted at least a month earlier over major cities (e.g., New York, London, and Seoul) between 2005 and 2015. This increase in NO x sensitivity implies that NO x emission controls will improve O3 air quality more now than it would have a decade ago.

Space-based constraints on spatial and temporal patterns of NO(x) emissions in California, 2005-2008.

We describe ground and space-based measurements of spatial and temporal variation of NO(2) in four California metropolitan regions. The measurements of weekly cycles and trends over the years 2005-2008 observed both from the surface and from space are nearly identical to each other. Observed decreases in Los Angeles and the surrounding cities are 46% on weekends and 9%/year from 2005-2008. Similar decreases are observed in the San Francisco Bay area and in Sacramento. In the San Joaquin Valley cities of Fresno and Bakersfield weekend decreases are much smaller, only 27%, and the decreasing trend is only 4%/year. We describe evidence that the satellite observations provide a uniquely complete view of changes in spatial patterns over time. For example, we observe variations in the spatial pattern of weekday-weekend concentrations in the Los Angeles basin with much steeper weekend decreases at the eastern edge of the basin. We also observe that the spatial extent of high NO(2) in the San Joaquin Valley has not receded as much as it has for other regions in the state. Analysis of these measurements is used to describe observational constraints on temporal trends in emission sources in the different regions.

Quantum chemical and master equation simulations of the oxidation and isomerization of vinoxy radicals.

The vinoxy radical, a common intermediate in gas-phase alkene ozonolysis, reacts with O2 to form a chemically activated alpha-oxoperoxy species. We report CBS-QB3 energetics for O2 addition to the parent (*CH2CHO, 1a), 1-methylvinoxy (*CH2COCH3, 1b), and 2-methylvinoxy (CH3*CHCHO, 1c) radicals. CBS-QB3 predictions for peroxy radical formation agree with experimental data, while the G2 method systematically overestimates peroxy radical stability. RRKM/master equation simulations based on CBS-QB3 data are used to estimate the competition between prompt isomerization and thermalization for the peroxy radicals derived from 1a, 1b, and 1c. The lowest energy isomerization pathway for radicals 4a and 4c (derived from 1a and 1c, respectively) is a 1,4-shift of the acyl hydrogen requiring 19-20 kcal/mol. The resulting hydroperoxyacyl radical decomposes quantitatively to form *OH. The lowest energy isomerization pathway for radical 4b (derived from 1b) is a 1,5-shift of a methyl hydrogen requiring 26 kcal/mol. About 25% of 4a, but only approximately 5% of 4c, isomerizes promptly at 1 atm pressure. Isomerization of 4b is negligible at all pressures studied.

Quantum chemical and master equation studies of the methyl vinyl carbonyl oxides formed in isoprene ozonolysis.

Methyl vinyl carbonyl oxide is an important intermediate in the reaction of isoprene and ozone and may be responsible for most of the (*)OH formed in isoprene ozonolysis. We use CBS-QB3 calculations and RRKM/master equation simulations to characterize all the pathways leading to the formation of this species, all the interconversions among its four possible conformers, and all of its irreversible isomerizations. Our calculations, like previous studies, predict (*)OH yields consistent with experiment if thermalized syn-methyl carbonyl oxides form (*)OH quantitatively. Natural bond order analysis reveals that the vinyl group weakens the C=O bond of the carbonyl oxide, making rotation about this bond accessible to this chemically activated intermediate. The vinyl group also allows one conformer of the carbonyl oxide to undergo electrocyclization to form a dioxole, a species not previously considered in the literature. Dioxole formation, which has a CBS-QB3 reaction barrier of 13.9 kcal/mol, is predicted to be favored over vinyl hydroperoxide formation, dioxirane formation, and collisional stabilization. Our calculations also predict that two dioxole derivatives, 1,2-epoxy-3-butanone and 3-oxobutanal, should be major products of isoprene ozonolysis.