Agreement Between Cardiovascular Disease Risk Scores in Resource-Limited Settings: Evidence from 5 Peruvian Sites.

It is unclear how well currently available risk scores predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in low-income and middle-income countries. We aim to compare the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Pooled Cohort risk equations (ACC/AHA model) with 6 other CVD risk tools to assess the concordance of predicted CVD risk in a random sample from 5 geographically diverse Peruvian populations. We used data from 2 Peruvian, age and sex-matched, population-based studies across 5 geographical sites. The ACC/AHA model were compared with 6 other CVD risk prediction tools: laboratory Framingham risk score for CVD, non-laboratory Framingham risk score for CVD, Reynolds risk score, systematic coronary risk evaluation, World Health Organization risk charts, and the Lancet chronic diseases risk charts. Main outcome was in agreement with predicted CVD risk using Lin's concordance correlation coefficient. Two thousand one hundred and eighty-three subjects, mean age 54.3 (SD ± 5.6) years, were included in the analysis. Overall, we found poor agreement between different scores when compared with ACC/AHA model. When each of the risk scores was used with cut-offs specified in guidelines, ACC/AHA model depicted the highest proportion of people at high CVD risk predicted at 10 years, with a prevalence of 29.0% (95% confidence interval, 26.9-31.0%), whereas prevalence with World Health Organization risk charts was 0.6% (95% confidence interval, 0.2-8.6%). In conclusion, poor concordance between current CVD risk scores demonstrates the uncertainty of choosing any of them for public health and clinical interventions in Latin American populations. There is a need to improve the evidence base of risk scores for CVD in low-income and middle-income countries.

Nutritional transition in children under five years and women of reproductive age: a 15-years trend analysis in Peru.

BACKGROUND: Rapid urbanization, increase in food availability, and changes in diet and lifestyle patterns have been changing nutritional profiles in developing nations. We aimed to describe nutritional changes in children under 5 years and women of reproductive age in Peru, during a 15-year period of rapid economic development and social policy enhancement. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Trend analyses of anthropometric measures in children of preschool age and women between 15-49 years, using the Peruvian National Demographic and Family Health Surveys (DHS) from 1996 to 2011. WHO growth curves were used to define stunting, underweight, wasting and overweight in children <5 y. We employed the WHO BMI-age standardized curves for teenagers between 15-19 y. In women >19 years, body mass index (BMI) was analyzed both categorically and as a continuous variable. To statistically analyze the trends, we used regression models: Linear and Poisson for continuous and binary outcomes, respectively. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 123 642 women and 64 135 children, from 1996 to 2011. Decreases over time were evidenced for underweight (p<0.001), wasting (p<0.001), and stunting (p<0.001) in children under 5 y. This effect was particularly noted in urban settings. Overweight levels in children reduced (p<0.001), however this reduction stopped, in urban settings, since 2005 (∼12%). Anemia decreased in children and women (p<0.001); with higher reduction in urban (↓43%) than in rural children (↓24%). BMI in women aged 15-19 years increased (p<0.001) across time, with noticeable BMI-curve shift in women older than 30 years. Moreover, obesity doubled during this period in women more than 19 y. CONCLUSION: Nutrition transition in Peru shows different patterns for urban and rural populations. Public policies should emphasize targeting both malnutrition conditions--undernutrition/stunting, overweight/obesity and anemia--considering age and place of residence in rapid developing societies like Peru.