Cost effectiveness of preemptive school closures to mitigate pandemic influenza outbreaks of differing severity in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may be considered as part of national pandemic preparedness as a first line defense against influenza pandemics. Preemptive school closures (PSCs) are an NPI reserved for severe pandemics and are highly effective in slowing influenza spread but have unintended consequences. METHODS: We used results of simulated PSC impacts for a 1957-like pandemic (i.e., an influenza pandemic with a high case fatality rate) to estimate population health impacts and quantify PSC costs at the national level using three geographical scales, four closure durations, and three dismissal decision criteria (i.e., the number of cases detected to trigger closures). At the Chicago regional level, we also used results from simulated 1957-like, 1968-like, and 2009-like pandemics. Our net estimated economic impacts resulted from educational productivity costs plus loss of income associated with providing childcare during closures after netting out productivity gains from averted influenza illness based on the number of cases and deaths for each mitigation strategy. RESULTS: For the 1957-like, national-level model, estimated net PSC costs and averted cases ranged from $7.5 billion (2016 USD) averting 14.5 million cases for two-week, community-level closures to $97 billion averting 47 million cases for 12-week, county-level closures. We found that 2-week school-by-school PSCs had the lowest cost per discounted life-year gained compared to county-wide or school district-wide closures for both the national and Chicago regional-level analyses of all pandemics. The feasibility of spatiotemporally precise triggering is questionable for most locales. Theoretically, this would be an attractive early option to allow more time to assess transmissibility and severity of a novel influenza virus. However, we also found that county-wide PSCs of longer durations (8 to 12 weeks) could avert the most cases (31-47 million) and deaths (105,000-156,000); however, the net cost would be considerably greater ($88-$103 billion net of averted illness costs) for the national-level, 1957-like analysis. CONCLUSIONS: We found that the net costs per death averted ($180,000-$4.2 million) for the national-level, 1957-like scenarios were generally less than the range of values recommended for regulatory impact analyses ($4.6 to 15.0 million). This suggests that the economic benefits of national-level PSC strategies could exceed the costs of these interventions during future pandemics with highly transmissible strains with high case fatality rates. In contrast, the PSC outcomes for regional models of the 1968-like and 2009-like pandemics were less likely to be cost effective; more targeted and shorter duration closures would be recommended for these pandemics.

Correction: Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003793.].

Transmission risk of Oropouche fever across the Americas.

BACKGROUND: Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are important contributors to the global burden of infectious diseases due to their epidemic potential, which can result in significant population and economic impacts. Oropouche fever, caused by Oropouche virus (OROV), is an understudied zoonotic VBD febrile illness reported in Central and South America. The epidemic potential and areas of likely OROV spread remain unexplored, limiting capacities to improve epidemiological surveillance. METHODS: To better understand the capacity for spread of OROV, we developed spatial epidemiology models using human outbreaks as OROV transmission-locality data, coupled with high-resolution satellite-derived vegetation phenology. Data were integrated using hypervolume modeling to infer likely areas of OROV transmission and emergence across the Americas. RESULTS: Models based on one-support vector machine hypervolumes consistently predicted risk areas for OROV transmission across the tropics of Latin America despite the inclusion of different parameters such as different study areas and environmental predictors. Models estimate that up to 5 million people are at risk of exposure to OROV. Nevertheless, the limited epidemiological data available generates uncertainty in projections. For example, some outbreaks have occurred under climatic conditions outside those where most transmission events occur. The distribution models also revealed that landscape variation, expressed as vegetation loss, is linked to OROV outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Hotspots of OROV transmission risk were detected along the tropics of South America. Vegetation loss might be a driver of Oropouche fever emergence. Modeling based on hypervolumes in spatial epidemiology might be considered an exploratory tool for analyzing data-limited emerging infectious diseases for which little understanding exists on their sylvatic cycles. OROV transmission risk maps can be used to improve surveillance, investigate OROV ecology and epidemiology, and inform early detection.

SARS-CoV-2 variant transition dynamics are associated with vaccination rates, number of co-circulating variants, and convalescent immunity.

BACKGROUND: Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has continued to evolve, with new variants outcompeting existing variants and often leading to different dynamics of disease spread. METHODS: In this paper, we performed a retrospective analysis using longitudinal sequencing data to characterize differences in the speed, calendar timing, and magnitude of 16 SARS-CoV-2 variant waves/transitions for 230 countries and sub-country regions, between October 2020 and January 2023. We then clustered geographic locations in terms of their variant behavior across several Omicron variants, allowing us to identify groups of locations exhibiting similar variant transitions. Finally, we explored relationships between heterogeneity in these variant waves and time-varying factors, including vaccination status of the population, governmental policy, and the number of variants in simultaneous competition. FINDINGS: This work demonstrates associations between the behavior of an emerging variant and the number of co-circulating variants as well as the demographic context of the population. We also observed an association between high vaccination rates and variant transition dynamics prior to the Mu and Delta variant transitions. INTERPRETATION: These results suggest the behavior of an emergent variant may be sensitive to the immunologic and demographic context of its location. Additionally, this work represents the most comprehensive characterization of variant transitions globally to date. FUNDING: Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD), Los Alamos National Laboratory.

Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty.

Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020.

Genomic landscape of follicular lymphoma across a wide spectrum of clinical behaviors.

While some follicular lymphoma (FL) patients do not require treatment or experience prolonged responses, others relapse early, and little is known about genetic alterations specific to patients with a particular clinical behavior. We selected 56 grade 1-3A FL patients according to their need of treatment or timing of relapse: never treated (n = 7), non-relapsed (19), late relapse (14), early relapse or POD24 (11), and primary refractory (5). We analyzed 56 diagnostic and 12 paired relapse lymphoid tissue biopsies and performed copy number alteration (CNA) analysis and next generation sequencing (NGS). We identified six focal driver losses (1p36.32, 6p21.32, 6q14.1, 6q23.3, 9p21.3, 10q23.33) and 1p36.33 copy-neutral loss of heterozygosity (CN-LOH). By integrating CNA and NGS results, the most frequently altered genes/regions were KMT2D (79%), CREBBP (67%), TNFRSF14 (46%) and BCL2 (40%). Although we found that mutations in PIM1, FOXO1 and TMEM30A were associated with an adverse clinical behavior, definitive conclusions cannot be drawn, due to the small sample size. We identified common precursor cells harboring early oncogenic alterations of the KMT2D, CREBBP, TNFRSF14 and EP300 genes and 16p13.3-p13.2 CN-LOH. Finally, we established the functional consequences of mutations by means of protein modeling (CD79B, PLCG2, PIM1, MCL1 and IRF8). These data expand the knowledge on the genomics behind the heterogeneous FL population and, upon replication in larger cohorts, could contribute to risk stratification and the development of targeted therapies.

Multi-dimensional resilience: A quantitative exploration of disease outcomes and economic, political, and social resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic in six countries.

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted a need for better understanding of countries' vulnerability and resilience to not only pandemics but also disasters, climate change, and other systemic shocks. A comprehensive characterization of vulnerability can inform efforts to improve infrastructure and guide disaster response in the future. In this paper, we propose a data-driven framework for studying countries' vulnerability and resilience to incident disasters across multiple dimensions of society. To illustrate this methodology, we leverage the rich data landscape surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic to characterize observed resilience for several countries (USA, Brazil, India, Sweden, New Zealand, and Israel) as measured by pandemic impacts across a variety of social, economic, and political domains. We also assess how observed responses and outcomes (i.e., resilience) of the COVID-19 pandemic are associated with pre-pandemic characteristics or vulnerabilities, including (1) prior risk for adverse pandemic outcomes due to population density and age and (2) the systems in place prior to the pandemic that may impact the ability to respond to the crisis, including health infrastructure and economic capacity. Our work demonstrates the importance of viewing vulnerability and resilience in a multi-dimensional way, where a country's resources and outcomes related to vulnerability and resilience can differ dramatically across economic, political, and social domains. This work also highlights key gaps in our current understanding about vulnerability and resilience and a need for data-driven, context-specific assessments of disaster vulnerability in the future.

Corrigendum: Somatic DNA damage response and homologous repair gene alterations and its association with tumor variant burden in breast cancer patients with occupational exposure to pesticides.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2022.904813.].

Assessing K-12 school reopenings under different COVID-19 Spread scenarios - United States, school year 2020/21: A retrospective modeling study.

INTRODUCTION: School-age children play a key role in the spread of airborne viruses like influenza due to the prolonged and close contacts they have in school settings. As a result, school closures and other non-pharmaceutical interventions were recommended as the first line of defense in response to the novel coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19). METHODS: We used an agent-based model that simulates communities across the United States including daycares, primary, and secondary schools to quantify the relative health outcomes of reopening schools for the period of August 15, 2020 to April 11, 2021. Our simulation was carried out in early September 2020 and was based on the latest (at the time) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)'s Pandemic Planning Scenarios released in May 2020. We explored different reopening scenarios including virtual learning, in-person school, and several hybrid options that stratify the student population into cohorts in order to reduce exposure and pathogen spread. RESULTS: Scenarios where cohorts of students return to school in non-overlapping formats, which we refer to as hybrid scenarios, resulted in significant decreases in the percentage of symptomatic individuals with COVID-19, by as much as 75%. These hybrid scenarios have only slightly more negative health impacts of COVID-19 compared to implementing a 100% virtual learning scenario. Hybrid scenarios can significantly avert the number of COVID-19 cases at the national scale-approximately between 28 M and 60 M depending on the scenario-over the simulated eight-month period. We found the results of our simulations to be highly dependent on the number of workplaces assumed to be open for in-person business, as well as the initial level of COVID-19 incidence within the simulated community. CONCLUSION: In an evolving pandemic, while a large proportion of people remain susceptible, reducing the number of students attending school leads to better health outcomes; part-time in-classroom education substantially reduces health risks.

Comprehensive Approach to Genomic and Immune Profiling: Insights of a Real-World Experience in Gynecological Tumors.

Gynecological cancer accounts for an elevated incidence worldwide requiring responsiveness regarding its care. The comprehensive genomic approach agrees with the classification of certain tumor types. We evaluated 49 patients with gynecological tumors undergoing high-throughput sequencing to explore whether identifying alterations in cancer-associated genes could characterize concrete histological subtypes. We performed immune examination and analyzed subsequent clinical impact. We found 220 genomic aberrations mostly distributed as single nucleotide variants (SNV, 77%). Only 3% were classified as variants of strong clinical significance in BRCA1 and BRCA2 of ovarian high-grade serous (HGSC) and uterine endometrioid carcinoma. TP53 and BRCA1 occurred in 72% and 28% of HGSC. Cervical squamous cell carcinoma was entirely HPV-associated and mutations occurred in PIK3CA (60%), as well as in uterine serous carcinoma (80%). Alterations were seen in PTEN (71%) and PIK3CA (60%) of uterine endometrioid carcinoma. Elevated programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) was associated with high TILs. Either PD-L1 augmented in deficient mis-matched repair (MMR) proteins or POLE mutated cases when compared to a proficient MMR state. An 18% received genotype-guided therapy and a 4% immunotherapy. The description of tumor subtypes is plausible through high-throughput sequencing by recognizing clinically relevant alterations. Additional concomitant assessment of immune biomarkers identifies candidates for immunotherapy.

Somatic DNA Damage Response and Homologous Repair Gene Alterations and Its Association With Tumor Variant Burden in Breast Cancer Patients With Occupational Exposure to Pesticides.

Homologous recombination is a crucial pathway that is specialized in repairing double-strand breaks; thus, alterations in genes of this pathway may lead to loss of genomic stability and cell growth suppression. Pesticide exposure potentially increases cancer risk through several mechanisms, such as the genotoxicity caused by chronic exposure, leading to gene alteration. To analyze this hypothesis, we investigated if breast cancer patients exposed to pesticides present a different mutational pattern in genes related to homologous recombination (BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, and RAD51D) and damage-response (TP53) concerning unexposed patients. We performed multiplex PCR-based assays and next-generation sequencing (NGS) of all coding regions and flanking splicing sites of BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, TP53, and RAD51D in 158 unpaired tumor samples from breast cancer patients on MiSeq (Illumina) platform. We found that exposed patients had tumors with more pathogenic and likely pathogenic variants than unexposed patients (p = 0.017). In general, tumors that harbored a pathogenic or likely pathogenic variant had a higher mutational burden (p < 0.001). We also observed that breast cancer patients exposed to pesticides had a higher mutational burden when diagnosed before 50 years old (p = 0.00978) and/or when carrying BRCA1 (p = 0.0138), BRCA2 (p = 0.0366), and/or PALB2 (p = 0.00058) variants, a result not found in the unexposed group. Our results show that pesticide exposure impacts the tumor mutational landscape and could be associated with the carcinogenesis process, therapy response, and disease progression. Further studies should increase the observation period in exposed patients to better evaluate the impact of these findings.

Exploring Impacts to COVID-19 Herd Immunity Thresholds Under Demographic Heterogeneity that Lowers Vaccine Effectiveness.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe health, economic, and societal impacts across the globe. Although highly efficacious vaccines were developed at an unprecedented rate, the heterogeneity in vaccinated populations has reduced the ability to achieve herd immunity. Specifically, as of Spring 2022, the 0-4 year-old population is still unable to be vaccinated and vaccination rates across 5-11 year olds are low. Additionally, vaccine hesitancy for older populations has further stalled efforts to reach herd immunity thresholds. This heterogeneous vaccine landscape increases the challenge of anticipating disease spread in a population. We developed an age-structured Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-type mathematical model to investigate the impacts of unvaccinated subpopulations on herd immunity. The model considers two types of undervaccination - age-related and behavior-related - by incorporating four age groups based on available FDA-approved vaccines. The model accounts for two different types of vaccines, mRNA (e.g., Pfizer, Moderna) and vector (e.g., Johnson and Johnson), as well as their effectiveness. Our goal is to analyze different scenarios to quantify which subpopulations and vaccine characteristics (e.g., rate or efficacy) most impact infection levels in the United States, using the state of New Mexico as an example.

Addressing delayed case reporting in infectious disease forecast modeling.

Infectious disease forecasting is of great interest to the public health community and policymakers, since forecasts can provide insight into disease dynamics in the near future and inform interventions. Due to delays in case reporting, however, forecasting models may often underestimate the current and future disease burden. In this paper, we propose a general framework for addressing reporting delay in disease forecasting efforts with the goal of improving forecasts. We propose strategies for leveraging either historical data on case reporting or external internet-based data to estimate the amount of reporting error. We then describe several approaches for adapting general forecasting pipelines to account for under- or over-reporting of cases. We apply these methods to address reporting delay in data on dengue fever cases in Puerto Rico from 1990 to 2009 and to reports of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the United States between 2010 and 2019. Through a simulation study, we compare method performance and evaluate robustness to assumption violations. Our results show that forecasting accuracy and prediction coverage almost always increase when correction methods are implemented to address reporting delay. Some of these methods required knowledge about the reporting error or high quality external data, which may not always be available. Provided alternatives include excluding recently-reported data and performing sensitivity analysis. This work provides intuition and guidance for handling delay in disease case reporting and may serve as a useful resource to inform practical infectious disease forecasting efforts.

Necrotizing fasciitis of the vulva due to carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae as a complication of acute myeloid leukemia treatment: a case report.

BACKGROUND: Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae strains have been reported in healthcare facilities with a rising incidence and are a major concern owing to infections that are often severe and can be potentially fatal, with limited therapeutic options. Klebsiella pneumonia represents the most frequently isolated microorganism. CASE PRESENTATION: We report the case of a Caucasian 52-year old Caucasian woman with acute myeloid leukemia was admitted to the inpatient hematology unit at a university referral hospital in Portugal. This hospital has endemic colonization of Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae and contention measures are being implemented to reduce spreading of these multidrug resistant bacteria. After receiving first line chemotherapy according to the intermediate-dose cytarabine regimen, in context of deep medullary aplasia, the patient developed a localized infection of the vulva, which progressed to a necrotizing fasciitis. This is a rare, life-threatening, and fulminant infection. Carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella was isolated in both vulvar exudate and blood cultures. The patient underwent multiple schemes of antimicrobials, but progressed with multiorgan compromise and was admitted to the intensive care unit for a short period for stabilization. Surgical debridement was performed twice with clinical improvement and, after 6 weeks, a skin graft was executed with good response. Reevaluation of the hematologic disease showed a complete response to first cycle of induction therapy. Despite success in resolving this complex infection, decisions regarding antibiotic treatment represented a tremendous challenge for the whole team. The importance of multidisciplinary collaboration was key for the patient's recovery and survival, and therefore, needs to be acknowledged. CONCLUSIONS: This clinical case raises awareness on a clinical entity that can be life threatening and, therefore, requires a high level of suspicion to assure an early integrated approach to avoid complications. Endemic spreading of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae is becoming a reality, and health policies need to be urgently undertaken at the national level to decrease morbidity and mortality because of health facilities-related infections.

Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines.

BACKGROUND: The importance of infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction research is underscored by decades of communicable disease outbreaks, including COVID-19. Unlike other fields of medical research, such as clinical trials and systematic reviews, no reporting guidelines exist for reporting epidemic forecasting and prediction research despite their utility. We therefore developed the EPIFORGE checklist, a guideline for standardized reporting of epidemic forecasting research. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed this checklist using a best-practice process for development of reporting guidelines, involving a Delphi process and broad consultation with an international panel of infectious disease modelers and model end users. The objectives of these guidelines are to improve the consistency, reproducibility, comparability, and quality of epidemic forecasting reporting. The guidelines are not designed to advise scientists on how to perform epidemic forecasting and prediction research, but rather to serve as a standard for reporting critical methodological details of such studies. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines have been submitted to the EQUATOR network, in addition to hosting by other dedicated webpages to facilitate feedback and journal endorsement.

Updated distribution maps of predominant Culex mosquitoes across the Americas.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of the geographical distribution of Culex mosquitoes in the Americas have been limited to state and provincial levels in the United States and Canada and based on data from the 1980s. Since these estimates were made, there have been many more documented observations of mosquitoes and new methods have been developed for species distribution modeling. Moreover, mosquito distributions are affected by environmental conditions, which have changed since the 1980s. This calls for updated estimates of these distributions to understand the risk of emerging and re-emerging mosquito-borne diseases. METHODS: We used contemporary mosquito data, environmental drivers, and a machine learning ecological niche model to create updated estimates of the geographical range of seven predominant Culex species across North America and South America: Culex erraticus, Culex nigripalpus, Culex pipiens, Culex quinquefasciatus, Culex restuans, Culex salinarius, and Culex tarsalis. RESULTS: We found that Culex mosquito species differ in their geographical range. Each Culex species is sensitive to both natural and human-influenced environmental factors, especially climate and land cover type. Some prefer urban environments instead of rural ones, and some are limited to tropical or humid areas. Many are found throughout the Central Plains of the USA. CONCLUSIONS: Our updated contemporary Culex distribution maps may be used to assess mosquito-borne disease risk. It is critical to understand the current geographical distributions of these important disease vectors and the key environmental predictors structuring their distributions not only to assess current risk, but also to understand how they will respond to climate change. Since the environmental predictors structuring the geographical distribution of mosquito species varied, we hypothesize that each species may have a different response to climate change.

A time-varying vulnerability index for COVID-19 in New Mexico, USA using generalized propensity scores.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted systemic inequities in the United States and resulted in a larger burden of negative social outcomes for marginalized communities. New Mexico, a state in the southwestern US, has a unique population with a large racial minority population and a high rate of poverty that may make communities more vulnerable to negative social outcomes from COVID-19. To identify which communities may be at the highest relative risk, we created a county-level vulnerability index. After the first COVID-19 case was reported in New Mexico on March 11, 2020, we fit a generalized propensity score model that incorporates sociodemographic factors to predict county-level viral exposure and thus, the generic risk to negative social outcomes such as unemployment or mental health impacts. We used four static sociodemographic covariates important for the state of New Mexico-population, poverty, household size, and minority population-and weekly cumulative case counts to iteratively run our model each week and normalize the exposure score to create a time-varying vulnerability index. We found the relative vulnerability between counties varied in the first eight weeks from the initial COVID-19 case before stabilizing. This framework for creating a location-specific vulnerability index in response to an ongoing disaster may be used as a quick, deployable metric to inform health policy decisions such as allocating state resources to the county level.

A unique case of bleeding from esophageal varices as the first sign of essential thrombocythemia.

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common cause of hospital admission and variceal hemorrhage is responsible for many UGIB cases. Esophageal and gastric varices are caused by portal hypertension (PHT), mostly due to liver cirrhosis. Portal vein thrombosis (PVT) is an important cause of non-cirrhotic PHT and can be associated with several diseases, including myeloproliferative disorders such as essential thrombocythemia (ET). PVT may become apparent due to complications of PHT, including variceal bleeding (VB). We report the case of a 43-year-old male admitted with esophageal VB. Etiologic work-up for chronic liver disease was negative and abdominal magnetic resonance imaging revealed chronic PVT with cavernous transformation and a non-cirrhotic liver. JAK2 mutation was found, and the bone-marrow biopsy was consistent with ET, without peripheral blood alterations. This is a unique case of ET diagnosed in a variceal bleeding setting, remembering the necessity for high clinical suspicion.

Early diagnosis of frailty: Technological and non-intrusive devices for clinical detection.

This work analyses different concepts for frailty diagnosis based on affordable standard technology such as smartphones or wearable devices. The goal is to provide ideas that go beyond classical diagnostic tools such as magnetic resonance imaging or tomography, thus changing the paradigm; enabling the detection of frailty without expensive facilities, in an ecological way for both patients and medical staff and even with continuous monitoring. Fried's five-point phenotype model of frailty along with a model based on trials and several classical physical tests were used for device classification. This work provides a starting point for future researchers who will have to try to bridge the gap separating elderly people from technology and medical tests in order to provide feasible, accurate and affordable tools for frailty monitoring for a wide range of users.

Using heterogeneous data to identify signatures of dengue outbreaks at fine spatio-temporal scales across Brazil.

Dengue virus remains a significant public health challenge in Brazil, and seasonal preparation efforts are hindered by variable intra- and interseasonal dynamics. Here, we present a framework for characterizing weekly dengue activity at the Brazilian mesoregion level from 2010-2016 as time series properties that are relevant to forecasting efforts, focusing on outbreak shape, seasonal timing, and pairwise correlations in magnitude and onset. In addition, we use a combination of 18 satellite remote sensing imagery, weather, clinical, mobility, and census data streams and regression methods to identify a parsimonious set of covariates that explain each time series property. The models explained 54% of the variation in outbreak shape, 38% of seasonal onset, 34% of pairwise correlation in outbreak timing, and 11% of pairwise correlation in outbreak magnitude. Regions that have experienced longer periods of drought sensitivity, as captured by the "normalized burn ratio," experienced less intense outbreaks, while regions with regular fluctuations in relative humidity had less regular seasonal outbreaks. Both the pairwise correlations in outbreak timing and outbreak trend between mesoresgions were best predicted by distance. Our analysis also revealed the presence of distinct geographic clusters where dengue properties tend to be spatially correlated. Forecasting models aimed at predicting the dynamics of dengue activity need to identify the most salient variables capable of contributing to accurate predictions. Our findings show that successful models may need to leverage distinct variables in different locations and be catered to a specific task, such as predicting outbreak magnitude or timing characteristics, to be useful. This advocates in favor of "adaptive models" rather than "one-size-fits-all" models. The results of this study can be applied to improving spatial hierarchical or target-focused forecasting models of dengue activity across Brazil.