Impact of interventions for tuberculosis prevention and care in South Africa - a systematic review of mathematical modelling studies.

BACKGROUND: Substantial additional efforts are needed to prevent, find and successfully treat tuberculosis (TB) in South Africa (SA). In thepast decade, an increasing body of mathematical modelling research has investigated the population-level impact of TB prevention and careinterventions. To date, this evidence has not been assessed in the SA context. OBJECTIVE: To systematically review mathematical modelling studies that estimated the impact of interventions towards the World HealthOrganization's End TB Strategy targets for TB incidence, TB deaths and catastrophic costs due to TB in SA. METHODS: We searched the PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus databases for studies that used transmission-dynamic models of TB in SAand reported on at least one of the End TB Strategy targets at population level. We described study populations, type of interventions andtheir target groups, and estimates of impact and other key findings. For studies of country-level interventions, we estimated average annualpercentage declines (AAPDs) in TB incidence and mortality attributable to the intervention. RESULTS: We identified 29 studies that met our inclusion criteria, of which 7 modelled TB preventive interventions (vaccination,antiretroviral treatment (ART) for HIV, TB preventive treatment (TPT)), 12 considered interventions along the care cascade for TB(screening/case finding, reducing initial loss to follow-up, diagnostic and treatment interventions), and 10 modelled combinationsof preventive and care-cascade interventions. Only one study focused on reducing catastrophic costs due to TB. The highest impactof a single intervention was estimated in studies of TB vaccination, TPT among people living with HIV, and scale-up of ART. Forpreventive interventions, AAPDs for TB incidence varied between 0.06% and 7.07%, and for care-cascade interventions between 0.05%and 3.27%. CONCLUSION: We describe a body of mathematical modelling research with a focus on TB prevention and care in SA. We found higherestimates of impact reported in studies of preventive interventions, highlighting the need to invest in TB prevention in SA. However, studyheterogeneity and inconsistent baseline scenarios limit the ability to compare impact estimates between studies. Combinations, rather thansingle interventions, are likely needed to reach the End TB Strategy targets in SA.

Estimating the magnitude of pulmonary tuberculosis patients missed by primary health care clinics in South Africa.

SETTING: The present study was conducted at 20 randomly selected primary health clinics across Buffalo City Metropolitan Health District, a high TB burden district in South Africa. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the proportion of TB patients missed by primary health clinics. DESIGN: We enrolled 1255 TB-symptomatic individuals exiting primary health clinics between March and December 2015. Participants were interviewed and asked to provide sputum for Xpert® MTB/RIF testing. RESULTS: Clinic staff screened 79.1% of participants seeking care for TB-related symptoms and 21.9% of those attending a clinic for other reasons (P < 0.001). Of those screened by clinic staff, 21.5% reported submitting sputum, although only 9.8% had available results. Study staff tested sputum from 779 participants not tested by clinic staff. Of these, 39 (5.0%) individuals tested positive for TB, three of whom were rifampicin-resistant; 15/39 (38.5%) were never screened and 24/39 (61.5%) were screened but not tested by clinic staff. We estimate that the health system missed 62.9-78.5% of TB patients attending primary health clinics for TB-related symptoms and 89.5-100% of those attending a clinic for other reasons. CONCLUSION: Low rates of TB screening and testing by the health system resulted in missed TB patients. Universal TB screening and testing of symptomatic individuals should be instituted in high TB burden communities in South Africa.

Symptom screening rules to identify active pulmonary tuberculosis: Findings from the Zambian South African Tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS Reduction (ZAMSTAR) trial prevalence surveys.

BACKGROUND: High tuberculosis (TB) burden countries should consider systematic screening among adults in the general population. We identified symptom screening rules to be used in addition to cough ≥2 weeks, in a context where X-ray screening is not feasible, aiming to increase the sensitivity of screening while achieving a specificity of ≥85%. METHODS: We used 2010 Zambia South Africa Tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS Reduction (ZAMSTAR) survey data: a South African (SA) training dataset, a SA testing dataset for internal validation and a Zambian dataset for external validation. Regression analyses investigated relationships between symptoms or combinations of symptoms and active disease. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated for candidate rules. RESULTS: Among all participants, the sensitivity of using only cough ≥2 weeks as a screening rule was less than 25% in both SA and Zambia. The addition of any three of six TB symptoms (cough <2 weeks, night sweats, weight loss, fever, chest pain, shortness of breath), or 2 or more of cough <2 weeks, night sweats, and weight loss, increased the sensitivity to ~38%, while reducing specificity from ~95% to ~85% in SA and ~97% to ~92% in Zambia. Among HIV-negative adults, findings were similar in SA, whereas in Zambia the increase in sensitivity was relatively small (15% to 22%). CONCLUSION: High TB burden countries should investigate cost-effective strategies for systematic screening: one such strategy could be to use our rule in addition to cough ≥2 weeks.

Running barbed suture quilting reduces abdominal drainage in perforator-based breast reconstruction.

Prolonged abdominal drainage after perforator-based breast reconstruction is a common problem that can result in seroma formation, patient morbidity, and increased duration of hospital stay. Abdominal quilting with progressive tension sutures has been effective in reducing abdominal drainage in abdominoplasty patients prompting a change of practice in our unit. We studied consecutive unilateral mastectomy patients undergoing breast reconstruction with a deep inferior epigastric artery perforator (DIEP) flap. The initial 27 patients underwent breast reconstruction without any form of abdominal flap plication. The subsequent 26 patients underwent an identical DIEP flap raise procedure after which the abdominal flap was progressively tensioned using a running barbed suture quilting technique. All patients had closed suction drains inserted bilaterally until daily drain output was <40 ml in 2 consecutive days. Primary outcome measures were total volume of abdominal drainage and length of hospital stay. Independent statistical analyses were performed using Welch's t-test. There were no demographic differences between the two groups. A statistically significant decrease in the mean total abdominal drainage was found after quilting (238 ml vs. 528 ml; p = 0.0005). Patients in the quilting group also showed a reduction in mean duration of hospital stay. Quilting of the abdominal flap helps to reduce abdominal drainage not only in abdominoplasty patients but also in patients undergoing breast reconstruction with DIEP flap.

Symptom reporting among prevalent tuberculosis cases who smoke, are HIV-positive or have hyperglycaemia.

Data from a tuberculosis (TB) prevalence survey conducted in 24 communities in Zambia and the Western Cape, South Africa, January-December 2010, were analysed to determine the influence of smoking, hyperglycaemia and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection on TB symptom reporting in culture-confirmed TB cases. Of 123 790 adults eligible for enrolment, 90 601 (73%) consented and 64 463 had evaluable sputum samples. ORs and 95%CIs were calculated using a robust standard errors logistic regression model adjusting for clustering at community level. HIV-positive TB cases were more likely to report cough, weight loss, night sweats and chest pain than non-HIV-positive TB cases. TB cases who smoked or had hyperglycaemia did not report symptoms differently from cases without these comorbidities.

Des données émanant d';une enquête de prévalence de la tuberculose (TB), réalisées dans 24 communautés de Zambie et de la province du Cap Ouest en Afrique du Sud de janvier à décembre 2010, ont été analysées afin de déterminer l'influence du tabagisme, de l'hyperglycémie et de l'infection par le virus de l'immunodéficience humaine (VIH) sur l'expression des symptômes de TB dans des cas de TB confirmés par la culture. Sur 123 790 adultes éligibles, 90 601 (73%) ont consenti et 64 463 ont produit des échantillons de crachats utilisables. Les OR et les IC à 95% ont été calculés grâce à un modèle de régression logistique des erreurs standard robustes en ajustant le regroupement au niveau des communautés. Les patients atteints de TB et VIH positifs rapportaient plus volontiers de la toux, une perte de poids, des sueurs nocturnes et des douleurs thoraciques que les patients non VIH positifs. Par contre, les cas de TB qui fumaient ou présentaient une hyperglycémie ne signalaient pas de symptômes différents des patients qui n'avaient pas ces co-morbidités.

En el presente estudio se analizaron los datos de una encuesta reciente sobre la prevalencia de tuberculosis (TB), que se había llevado a cabo en 24 comunidades en Zambia y en el Cabo Occidental de Suráfrica de enero a diciembre del 2010, con el fin de determinar la influencia del tabaquismo, la hiperglucemia y la infección por el virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana (VIH) sobre los síntomas de TB que refieren los pacientes con diagnóstico de TB confirmada por cultivo. De los 123 790 adultos aptos para el estudio, 90 601 dieron su consentimiento (73%) y 64 463 aportaron muestras de esputo adecuadas. Se calculó el cociente de posibilidades y el intervalo de confianza del 95% mediante un modelo consistente de regresión logística y errores estándar, tras corregir la agregación de los datos por comunidad. Fue más frecuente que los pacientes con TB que eran positivos frente al VIH refirieran tos, pérdida de peso, sudoración nocturna y dolor torácico que los pacientes sin esta coinfección. No hubo diferencia en los síntomas comunicados por los pacientes tuberculosos que fumaban o que presentaban hiperglucemia, en comparación con los pacientes sin estas enfermedades concurrentes.