Drivers of Antarctic sea ice advance.

Antarctic sea ice is mostly seasonal. While changes in sea ice seasonality have been observed in recent decades, the lack of process understanding remains a key challenge to interpret these changes. To address this knowledge gap, we investigate the processes driving the ice season onset, known as sea ice advance, using remote sensing and in situ observations. Here, we find that seawater freezing predominantly drives advance in the inner seasonal ice zone. By contrast, in an outer band a few degrees wide, advance is due to the import of drifting ice into warmer waters. We show that advance dates are strongly related to the heat stored in the summer ocean mixed layer. This heat is controlled by the timing of sea ice retreat, explaining the tight link between retreat and advance dates. Such a thermodynamic linkage strongly constrains the climatology and interannual variations, albeit with less influence on the latter.

Should Sea-Ice Modeling Tools Designed for Climate Research Be Used for Short-Term Forecasting?

In theory, the same sea-ice models could be used for both research and operations, but in practice, differences in scientific and software requirements and computational and human resources complicate the matter. Although sea-ice modeling tools developed for climate studies and other research applications produce output of interest to operational forecast users, such as ice motion, convergence, and internal ice pressure, the relevant spatial and temporal scales may not be sufficiently resolved. For instance, sea-ice research codes are typically run with horizontal resolution of more than 3 km, while mariners need information on scales less than 300 m. Certain sea-ice processes and coupled feedbacks that are critical to simulating the Earth system may not be relevant on these scales; and therefore, the most important model upgrades for improving sea-ice predictions might be made in the atmosphere and ocean components of coupled models or in their coupling mechanisms, rather than in the sea-ice model itself. This paper discusses some of the challenges in applying sea-ice modeling tools developed for research purposes for operational forecasting on short time scales, and highlights promising new directions in sea-ice modeling.

Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions.

The concept of feedback is key in assessing whether a perturbation to a system is amplified or damped by mechanisms internal to the system. In polar regions, climate dynamics are controlled by both radiative and non-radiative interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, ice sheets and land surfaces. Precisely quantifying polar feedbacks is required for a process-oriented evaluation of climate models, a clear understanding of the processes responsible for polar climate changes, and a reduction in uncertainty associated with model projections. This quantification can be performed using a simple and consistent approach that is valid for a wide range of feedbacks, offering the opportunity for more systematic feedback analyses and a better understanding of polar climate changes.

Climate change enhances primary production in the western Antarctic Peninsula.

Intense regional warming was observed in the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) over the last 50 years. Here, we investigate the impact of climate change on primary production (PP) in this highly productive region. This study is based on temporal data series of ozone thickness (1972-2010), sea ice concentration (1978-2010), sea-surface temperature (1990-2010), incident irradiance (1988-2010) and satellite-derived chlorophyll a concentration (Chl-a, 1997-2010) for the coastal WAP. In addition, we apply a photosynthesis/photoinhibition spectral model to satellite-derived data (1997-2010) to compute PP and examine the separate impacts of environmental forcings. Since 1978, sea ice retreat has been occurring earlier in the season (in March in 1978 and in late October during the 2000s) while the ozone hole is present in early spring (i.e. August to November) since the early 1990s, increasing the intensity of ultraviolet-B radiation (UVBR, 280-320 nm). The WAP waters have also warmed over 1990-2010. The modelled PP rates are in the lower range of previously reported PP rates in the WAP. The annual open water PP in the study area increased from 1997 to 2010 (from 0.73 to 1.03 Tg C yr(-1) ) concomitantly with the increase in the production season length. The coincidence between the earlier sea ice retreat and the presence of the ozone hole increased the exposure to incoming radiation (UVBR, UVAR and PAR) and, thus, increased photoinhibition during austral spring (September to November) in the study area (from 0.014 to 0.025 Tg C yr(-1) ). This increase in photoinhibition was minor compared to the overall increase in PP, however. Climate change hence had an overall positive impact on PP in the WAP waters.