Epidemiological Modeling of the Impact of Public Health Policies on Hepatitis C: Protocol for a Gamification Tool Targeting Microelimination.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C is a disease with a strong social component, as its main transmission route is via blood, making it associated with lifestyle. Therefore, it is suitable to be worked on from the perspective of public health policy, which still has a lot of room to explore and improve, contrary to diagnoses and treatments, which are already very refined and effective. OBJECTIVE: An interactive gamified policy tool, designated as Let's End HepC (LEHC), was created to understand the impact of policies related to hepatitis C on the disease's epidemiology on a yearly basis until 2030. METHODS: To this end, an innovative epidemiological model was developed, integrating Markov chains to model the natural history of the disease and adaptive conjoint analysis to reflect the degree of application of each of the 24 public health policies included in the model. This double imputation model makes it possible to assess a set of indicators such as liver transplant, incidence, and deaths year by year until 2030 in different risk groups. Populations at a higher risk were integrated into the model to understand the specific epidemiological dynamics within the total population of each country and within segments that comprise people who have received blood products, prisoners, people who inject drugs, people infected through vertical transmission, and the remaining population. RESULTS: The model has already been applied to a group of countries, and studies in 5 of these countries have already been concluded, showing results very close to those obtained through other forms of evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: The LEHC model allows the simulation of different degrees of implementation of each policy and thus the verification of its epidemiological impact on each studied population. The gamification feature allows assessing the adequate fulfillment of the World Health Organization goals for the elimination of hepatitis C by 2030. LEHC supports health decision makers and people who practice patient advocacy in making decisions based on science, and because LEHC is democratically shared, it ends up contributing to the increase of citizenship in health. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR1-10.2196/38521.

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Ocrelizumab for the Treatment of Relapsing and Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis in Portugal.

OBJECTIVES: Ocrelizumab demonstrated significant clinical benefit for the treatment of relapsing (RMS) and primary progressive (PPMS) multiple sclerosis (MS), an incurable disease characterized by disability progression. This study evaluated the clinical and economic impact of ocrelizumab relative to current clinical practice, including other disease-modifying therapies (DMT), available in Portugal. METHODS: Markov models for MS were adapted to estimate the impact of ocrelizumab across three patient populations: treatment-naïve RMS, previously treated RMS, and PPMS. Health states were defined according to the Expanded Disability Status Scale. For RMS, the model further captured the occurrence of relapses and progression to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS). A lifetime time-horizon and Portuguese societal perspective were adopted. RESULTS: For RMS patients, ocrelizumab was estimated to maximize the expected time (years) without progression to SPMS (10.50) relative to natalizumab (10.10), dimethyl fumarate (8.64), teriflunomide (8.39), fingolimod (8.38), interferon ß-1a (8.33) and glatiramer acetate (8.18). As the most effective option, with quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains between 0.3 and 1.2, ocrelizumab was found to be cost-saving relative to natalizumab and fingolimod, and presented incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) below €16,720/QALY relative to the remaining DMT. For PPMS patients, the ICER of ocrelizumab versus best supportive care was estimated at €78,858/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Ocrelizumab provides important health benefits for RMS and PPMS patients, comparing favourably with other widely used therapies. In RMS, ocrelizumab was revealed to be either cost-saving or have costs-per-QALY likely below commonly accepted cost-effectiveness thresholds. In PPMS, ocrelizumab fills a clear clinical gap in the current clinical practice. Overall, ocrelizumab is expected to provide good value for money in addressing the need of MS patients.

Quality of life and informal care burden associated with duchenne muscular dystrophy in Portugal: the COIDUCH study.

BACKGROUND: To describe the reduced health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) patients and their caregiver burden and to present its relationship with disease progression. METHODS: This cross-sectional study assessed patient HRQoL with the 3-level version of the EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D-3L) and caregiver burden with the Work Productivity and Activity Impairment: General Health questionnaire. DMD patients and their caregivers were identified through Portuguese Neuromuscular Association (APN). RESULTS: A total of 46 DMD main caregivers, of eight ambulant and 38 non-ambulant patients, completed the questionnaires. Over half (58.7%) of all non-ambulant patients were on ventilation support, either full-time (15.2%) or non full-time (43.5%). Non-ambulant patients had a lower mean utility scores than ambulant patients (- 0.05 versus 0.51, p value < 0.001). Caregivers of non-ambulant patients reported a significant mean daily activity impairment as compared to caregivers of ambulant patients (68% versus 23%, p value < 0.001). Among non-ambulant patients, both utility scores and caregiver impairment appeared to deteriorate according to a higher need for ventilation support, however, these results were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: These results emphasise the significant negative impact that DMD progression has on the patient HRQoL, as well as caregivers' ability to conduct their daily activities. Therapeutic options that stop or slow the disease progression could have a beneficial impact for both patients and caregivers.

Cost of Illness in Patients with Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy in Portugal: The COIDUCH Study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to estimate the cost of illness (COI) of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) and its relation to disease progression, using age as a proxy, and according to the ambulatory status of patients. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of patients diagnosed with DMD identified through the Portuguese Neuromuscular Patients Association (APN). Data regarding patient and caregiver demographics, patient health status, resource utilization and cost, and informal care were collected using a custom semistructured questionnaire. Labor productivity and absenteeism losses were captured using the Work Productivity and Activity Impairment questionnaire. Costs were valued using a societal perspective. RESULTS: A total of 46 patient-caregiver pairs were included, of which eight of the patients were ambulant and 38 were nonambulant. Age had a decreasing effect on COI, independent of the patient's disease stage. Annualized lifetime costs were at their highest in nonambulant patients around the mean age of loss of ambulation (10 years of age). The mean per patient stage-specific costs (year 2019 values) of DMD were estimated at €48,991 in the nonambulant stage and €19,993 in the ambulant stage. Direct nonmedical costs were the main cost drivers, followed by indirect costs. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate a close relation between overall disease costs and disease progression. DMD is associated with a substantial economic burden, which appears to be larger around the time ambulation is lost (10 years of age). The availability of new therapeutic options that delay disease progression, especially loss of ambulation, may prove to be highly beneficial for not only patients with DMD but also their families and society.

Matching-Adjusted Indirect Comparison of Efficacy and Consumption of rVIII-SingleChain Versus Two Recombinant FVIII Products Used for Prophylactic Treatment of Adults/Adolescents with Severe Haemophilia A.

INTRODUCTION: Given the relatively small number of patients with haemophilia A, head-to-head comparisons between recombinant FVIII (rFVIII) products are difficult to conduct. This study compared the efficacy and consumption of rVIII-SingleChain (lonoctocog alfa, AFSTYLA®) with rAHF-PFM (octocog alfa, Advate®) and rFVIIIFc (efmoroctocog alfa, Elocta®), for the prophylaxis and treatment of bleeding episodes in previously treated adolescents/adults with severe haemophilia A, through a matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC). METHODS: A systematic literature review identified published clinical trials for rAHF-PFM and rFVIIIFc. Individual patient data for rVIII-SingleChain were used to match baseline patient characteristics to those from published trials, using an approach similar to propensity score weighting. After matching, annualized bleeding rates (ABR), percentage of patients with zero bleeds, and rFVIII consumption were compared across trial populations. RESULTS: Published data were identified from two rAHF-PFM trials and one rFVIIIFc trial. rVIII-SingleChain had similar ABR (risk ratio [RR]: 0.74 [0.16; 3.48]; RR: 1.18 [0.85; 1.65]) and percentage of patients with zero bleeds (odds ratio [OR]: 1.34 [0.56; 3.22]; OR: 0.78 [0.47; 1.31]) versus rAHF-PFM and rFVIIIFc, respectively. Annual rVIII-SingleChain consumption was significantly lower than rAHF-PFM (mean difference: - 1507.66 IU/kg/year [- 2011.71; - 1003.61]) and equivalent to rFVIIIFc (RR: 0.96 [0.62; 1.49]). CONCLUSION: Although limited to published information for comparator trials, these results suggest that with an annualized rFVIII consumption comparable to rFVIIIFc, but significantly lower than rAHF-PFM, routine prophylaxis with rVIII-SingleChain is able to maintain a similar ABR and percentage of patients with zero bleeds, attesting to the long-acting nature of rVIII-SingleChain.

It is difficult to directly compare different recombinant FVIII products in head-to-head studies because there are few patients with haemophilia A. This study aimed to indirectly compare the efficacy and consumption of different recombinant FVIII products in the prophylactic treatment of haemophilia A using published clinical data. A proven method for performing indirect comparisons of products is referred to as a matching-adjusted indirect comparison. Using this approach, we were able to compare rVIII-SingleChain with two other recombinant FVIII products (rAHF-PFM and rFVIIIFc). Our results suggest that annual FVIII consumption with rVIII-SingleChain is comparable to rFVIIIFc, but is significantly lower than rAHF-PFM, while maintaining a similar bleeding rate. These results highlight the long-acting nature of the product.

Value-based decision-making for orphan drugs with multiple criteria decision analysis: burosumab for the treatment of X-linked hypophosphatemia.

OBJECTIVE: Burosumab is an orphan medicinal product (OMP) approved in Europe for the treatment of X-linked hypophosphatemia (XLH). The aim of this study was to assess the value of burosumab versus conventional therapy for the treatment of paediatric XLH, through a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework for health technology assessment (HTA) of OMPs in Portugal. METHODS: The MCDA framework considered 14 criteria related to disease burden, therapeutic value and economic burden. A multidisciplinary panel of national stakeholders participated in a two-phase exercise. In the first phase, relative weights and part-worth utilities for the criteria and their levels were elicited and a reimbursement likelihood function was calibrated through adaptive conjoint analysis. In the second phase, burosumab and conventional therapy were assessed against the criteria, providing a global value score (0-100) and reimbursement likelihood (0-100%) for both. RESULTS: Of the 14 criteria, disease burden, therapeutic value and economic burden criteria represented 27.29%, 57.17% and 15.53% of the total weight in the decision, respectively. All disease burden and some therapeutic value criteria, typically not included in traditional HTA, represented 47.88% of the total weight. Burosumab was unanimously considered superior to conventional therapy, with an average (range) global value score of 84.96 (82.48-86.54) against 48.06 (43.37-57.68), and reimbursement likelihood of 97.50% (96.78%-98.32%) against 43.66% (31.48%-68.73%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: MCDA represents a powerful tool in HTA decision-making for OMPs. The results of this MCDA acknowledge burosumab as a disease-modifying drug, deemed superior to conventional therapy for the treatment of paediatric XLH.

Social and economic value of Portuguese community pharmacies in health care.

BACKGROUND: Community pharmacies are major contributors to health care systems across the world. Several studies have been conducted to evaluate community pharmacies services in health care. The purpose of this study was to estimate the social and economic benefits of current and potential future community pharmacies services provided by pharmacists in health care in Portugal. METHODS: The social and economic value of community pharmacies services was estimated through a decision-model. Model inputs included effectiveness data, quality of life (QoL) and health resource consumption, obtained though literature review and adapted to Portuguese reality by an expert panel. The estimated economic value was the result of non-remunerated pharmaceutical services plus health resource consumption potentially avoided. Social and economic value of community pharmacies services derives from the comparison of two scenarios: "with service" versus "without service". RESULTS: It is estimated that current community pharmacies services in Portugal provide a gain in QoL of 8.3% and an economic value of 879.6 million euros (M€), including 342.1 M€ in non-remunerated pharmaceutical services and 448.1 M€ in avoided expense with health resource consumption. Potential future community pharmacies services may provide an additional increase of 6.9% in QoL and be associated with an economic value of 144.8 M€: 120.3 M€ in non-remunerated services and 24.5 M€ in potential savings with health resource consumption. CONCLUSIONS: Community pharmacies services provide considerable benefit in QoL and economic value. An increase range of services including a greater integration in primary and secondary care, among other transversal services, may add further social and economic value to the society.

EPICE-HIV: An Epidemiologic Cost-Effectiveness Model for HIV Treatment.

The goal of this research was to establish a new and innovative framework for cost-effectiveness modeling of HIV-1 treatment, simultaneously considering both clinical and epidemiological outcomes. EPICE-HIV is a multi-paradigm model based on a within-host micro-simulation model for the disease progression of HIV-1 infected individuals and an agent-based sexual contact network (SCN) model for the transmission of HIV-1 infection. It includes HIV-1 viral dynamics, CD4+ T cell infection rates, and pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics modeling. Disease progression of HIV-1 infected individuals is driven by the interdependent changes in CD4+ T cell count, changes in plasma HIV-1 RNA, accumulation of resistance mutations and adherence to treatment. The two parts of the model are joined through a per-sexual-act and viral load dependent probability of disease transmission in HIV-discordant couples. Internal validity of the disease progression part of the model is assessed and external validity is demonstrated in comparison to the outcomes observed in the STaR randomized controlled clinical trial. We found that overall adherence to treatment and the resulting pattern of treatment interruptions are key drivers of HIV-1 treatment outcomes. Our model, though largely independent of efficacy data from RCT, was accurate in producing 96-week outcomes, qualitatively and quantitatively comparable to the ones observed in the STaR trial. We demonstrate that multi-paradigm micro-simulation modeling is a promising tool to generate evidence about optimal policy strategies in HIV-1 treatment, including treatment efficacy, HIV-1 transmission, and cost-effectiveness analysis.

Cost-Effectiveness of Single- Versus Generic Multiple-Tablet Regimens for Treatment of HIV-1 Infection in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The possibility of incorporating generics into combination antiretroviral therapy and breaking apart once-daily single-tablet regimens (STRs), may result in less efficacious medications and/or more complex regimens with the expectation of marked monetary savings. A modeling approach that assesses the merits of such policies in terms of lifelong costs and health outcomes using adherence and effectiveness data from real-world U.S. settings. METHODS: A comprehensive computer-based microsimulation model was developed to assess the lifetime health (life expectancy and quality adjusted life-years--QALYs) and economic outcomes in HIV-1 infected patients initiating STRs compared with multiple-table regimens including generic medications where possible (gMTRs). The STRs considered included tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine and efavirenz or rilpivirine or elvitegravir/cobicistat. gMTRs substitutions included each counterpart to STRs, including generic lamivudine for emtricitabine and generic versus branded efavirenz. RESULTS: Life expectancy is estimated to be 1.301 years higher (discounted 0.619 QALY gain) in HIV-1 patients initiating a single-tablet regimen in comparison to a generic-based multiple-table regimen. STRs were associated with an average increment of $26,547.43 per patient in medication and $1,824.09 in other medical costs due to longer survival which were partially offset by higher inpatients costs ($12,035.61) with gMTRs treatment. Overall, STRs presented incremental lifetime costs of $16,335.91 compared with gMTRs, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $26,383.82 per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: STRs continue to represent good value for money under contemporary cost-effectiveness thresholds despite substantial price reductions of generic medications in the U. S.

Pharmacoeconomics of ruxolitinib therapy in patients with myelofibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Overall survival (OS) and other important clinical trial end-points seem increasingly more elusive in supporting rapid and efficient incorporation of innovative cancer drugs in clinical practice. This study proposes a clinical trial based pharmacoeconomic framework to assess the therapeutic and economic value of ruxolitinib in patients with intermediate-2 or high-risk myelofibrosis. METHODS: Individual patient level 144 week follow-up data from the COMFORT-II trial was used to account for the crossover effect on overall survival. Lifetime treatment benefits and costs were estimated considering detailed patterns of both ruxolitinib dose adjustments and blood transfusion needs. RESULTS: The authors estimate a 3.3 years increment in life expectancy (HR = 0.30; 95% CI = 0.17-0.55; p-value <0.001) and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €40,000 per life year gained with the use of ruxolitinib. CONCLUSION: This study also demonstrates how valuable information from clinical trials can be used to support informed decisions about the early incorporation of innovative drugs.