Site percolation threshold of composite square lattices and its agroecology applications.

We analyze the percolation threshold of square lattices comprising a combination of sites with regular and extended neighborhoods. We found that the percolation threshold of these composed systems smoothly decreases with the fraction of sites with extended neighbors. This behavior can be well-fitted by a Tsallis q-Exponential function. We found a relation between the fitting parameters and the differences in the gyration radius among neighborhoods. We also compared the percolation threshold with the critical susceptibility of nearest and next-to-nearest neighbor monoculture plantations vulnerable to the spread of phytopathogen. Notably, the critical susceptibility in monoculture plantations can be described as a linear combination of two composite systems. These results allow the refinement of mathematical models of phytopathogen propagation in agroecology. In turn, this improvement facilitates the implementation of more efficient computational simulations of agricultural epidemiology that are instrumental in testing and formulating control strategies.

Analysis and Bayesian estimation of a model for Chikungunya dynamics with relapse: An outbreak in Acapulco, Mexico.

Chikungunya is a vector-borne viral disease transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. It does not have any specific treatment, and there is no vaccine. Recent epidemiological data have indicated that a relapse of the infection can occur within three months of the initial infection; however, until now, mathematical models for the spread of the disease have not considered this factor. We propose a mathematical model for the transmission of the Chikungunya virus that considers relapse. We calculated the basic reproductive number $ (R_0) $ of the disease by using the next-generation operator method. We proved the existence of a forward bifurcation. We determined the existence and the global stability of the equilibrium points by using the Lyapunov function method. We fitted the model to data from an outbreak in 2015 in Acapulco, Mexico to estimate the model parameters and $ R_0 $ with the Bayesian approach via a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method. In the local sensitivity analysis, we found that the fraction of infected individuals who become asymptomatic has a strong impact on the basic reproductive number and makes some control measures insufficient. The impact of the fraction of infected individuals who become asymptomatic should be considered in Chikungunya control strategies.

Vector-borne disease risk indexes in spatially structured populations.

There are economic and physical limitations when applying prevention and control strategies for urban vector borne diseases. Consequently, there are increasing concerns and interest in designing efficient strategies and regulations that health agencies can follow in order to reduce the imminent impact of viruses like Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya. That includes fumigation, abatization, reducing the hatcheries, picking up trash, information campaigns. A basic question that arise when designing control strategies is about which and where these ones should focus. In other words, one would like to know whether preventing the contagion or decrease vector population, and in which area of the city, is more efficient. In this work, we propose risk indexes based on the idea of secondary cases from patch to patch. Thus, they take into account human mobility and indicate which patch has more chance to be a corridor for the spread of the disease and which is more vulnerable, i.e. more likely to have cases?. They can also indicate the neighborhood where hatchery control will reduce more the number of potential cases. In order to illustrate the usefulness of these indexes, we run a set of numerical simulations in a mathematical model that takes into account the urban mobility and the differences in population density among the areas of a city. If we label by i a particular neighborhood, the transmission risk index (TRi) measures the potential secondary cases caused by a host in that neighborhood. The vector transmission risk index (VTRi) measures the potential secondary cases caused by a vector. Finally, the vulnerability risk index (VRi) measures the potential secondary cases in the neighborhood. Transmission indexes can be used to give geographical priority to some neighborhoods when applying prevention and control measures. On the other hand, the vulnerability index can be useful to implement monitoring campaigns or public health investment.

Increased efficiency in the second-hand tire trade provides opportunity for dengue control.

Dengue fever is increasing in geographical range, spread by invasion of its vector mosquitoes. The trade in second-hand tires has been implicated as a factor in this process because they act as mobile reservoirs of mosquito eggs and larvae. Regional transportation of tires can create linkages between rural areas with dengue and disease-free urban areas, potentially giving rise to outbreaks even in areas with strong local control measures. In this work we sought to model the dynamics of mosquito transportation via the tire trade, in particular to predict its role in causing unexpected dengue outbreaks through vertical transmission of the virus across generations of mosquitoes. We also aimed to identify strategies for regulating the trade in second-hand tires, improving disease control. We created a mathematical model which captures the dynamics of dengue between rural and urban areas, taking into account the movement and storage time of tires, and mosquito diapause. We simulate a series of scenarios in which a mosquito population is introduced to a dengue-free area via movement of tires, either as single or multiple events, increasing the likelihood of a dengue outbreak. A persistent disease state can be induced regardless of whether urban conditions for an outbreak are met, and an existing endemic state can be enhanced by vector input. Finally we assess the potential for regulation of tire processing as a means of reducing the transmission of dengue fever using a specific case study from Puerto Rico. Our work demonstrates the importance of the second-hand tire trade in modulating the spread of dengue fever across regions, in particular its role in introducing dengue to disease-free areas. We propose that reduction of tire storage time and control of their movement can play a crucial role in containing dengue outbreaks.

Describing the structure of ronchigrams when the grating is placed at the caustic region: The parabolical mirror.

In this work we use the geometrical point of view of the Ronchi test and the caustic-touching theorem to describe the structure of the ronchigrams for a parabolical mirror when the point light source is on and off the optical axis and the grating is placed at the caustic associated with the reflected light rays. We find that for a given position of the point light source the structure of the ronchigram is determined by the form of the caustic and the relative position between the grating and the caustic. We remark that the closed loop fringes commonly observed in the ronchigrams appear when the grating and the caustic are tangent to each other. Furthermore, we find that the caustic locally has singularities of the purse or hyperbolic umbilic type, and the ronchigram obtained when the grating is located at certain specific positions at the caustic locally is of the serpentine type. The main motivation of this work is that nowadays a quantitative analysis of the Ronchi test is applied only when the grating is outside the caustic, and we claim that by working at the caustic, the sensitivity of the Ronchi test will be improved. Therefore, a clear understanding of the properties of the ronchigrams when the grating is placed at the caustic will be needed to extend the Ronchi test to that region.