Impact of hypertension prevalence trend on mortality and burdens of dementia and disability in England and Wales to 2060: a simulation modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Previous estimates of the impact of public health interventions targeting hypertension usually focus on one health outcome. This study aims to consider the effects of change in future hypertension prevalence on mortality, dementia, and disability simultaneously. METHODS: We modelled three plausible scenarios based on observed trends of hypertension prevalence from 2003 to 2017 in England: observed trends continue (baseline scenario); 2017 prevalence remains unchanged; and 2017 prevalence decreases by 50% by 2060. We used a probabilistic Markov model to integrate calendar trends in incidence of cardiovascular disease, dementia, disability, and mortality to forecast their future occurrence in the population of England and Wales. Assuming the hypertension prevalence trend modifies health transition probabilities, we compared mortality outcomes and the burden of dementia and disability to 2060 for the scenarios. FINDINGS: If the decline in hypertension prevalence stops, there would be a slight increase in the number of additional deaths to 2060 (22·9 [95% uncertainty interval 19·0-26·6] more deaths per 100 000 population), although the burdens of disability and dementia in absolute terms would change little. Alternatively, if the downward hypertension prevalence trend accelerates (with prevalence falling by 50% between 2017 and 2060), there would be a modest additional reduction in deaths (57·0 [50·4-63·5] fewer deaths per 100 000 population), a small increase in dementia burden (9·0 [5·1-13·2] more cases per 100 000 population), no significant effect on disability burden, and an 8% gain in healthy life expectancy at age 65 years from 2020 to 2060 (5·3 years vs 4·9 years) compared with the baseline scenario. INTERPRETATION: The major future impact of alternative hypertension prevention strategies appears to be on future life expectancy. The salutary effect of lower population blood pressure distribution on incidence of dementia and disability might not offset expansion of the susceptible population due to reduced mortality. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation and UK Economic and Social Research Council.

Growing old in China in socioeconomic and epidemiological context: systematic review of social care policy for older people.

BACKGROUND: From 2020 to 2050, China's population aged ≥65 years old is estimated to more than double from 172 million (12·0%) to 366 million (26·0%). Some 10 million have Alzheimer's disease and related dementias, to approach 40 million by 2050. Critically, the population is ageing fast while China is still a middle-income country. METHODS: Using official and population-level statistics, we summarise China's demographic and epidemiological trends relevant to ageing and health from 1970 to present, before examining key determinants of China's improving population health in a socioecological framework. We then explore how China is responding to the care needs of its older population by carrying out a systematic review to answer the question: 'what are the key policy challenges to China achieving an equitable nationwide long-term care system for older people?'. Databases were screened for records published between 1st June 2020 and 1st June 2022 in Mandarin Chinese or English, reflecting our focus on evidence published since introduction of China's second long-term care insurance pilot phase in 2020. RESULTS: Rapid economic development and improved access to education has led to widescale internal migration. Changing fertility policies and household structures also pose considerable challenges to the traditional family care model. To deal with increasing need, China has piloted 49 alternative long-term care insurance systems. Our findings from 42 studies (n = 16 in Mandarin) highlight significant challenges in the provision of quality and quantity of care which suits the preference of users, varying eligibility for long-term care insurance and an inequitable distribution of cost burden. Key recommendations include increasing salaries to attract and retain staff, introduction of mandatory financial contributions from employees and a unified standard of disability with regular assessment. Strengthening support for family caregivers and improving smart old age care capacity can also support preferences to age at home. CONCLUSIONS: China has yet to establish a sustainable funding mechanism, standardised eligibility criteria and a high-quality service delivery system. Its long-term care insurance pilot studies provide useful lessons for other middle-income countries facing similar challenges in terms of meeting the long-term care needs of their rapidly growing older populations.

Is there a common latent cognitive construct for dementia estimation across two Chinese cohorts?

Introduction: It is valuable to identify common latent cognitive constructs for dementia prevalence estimation across Chinese aging cohorts. Methods: Based on cognitive measures of 12015 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS; 13 items) and 6623 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS; 9 items) participants aged 65 to 99 in 2018, confirmatory factor analysis was applied to identify latent cognitive constructs, and to estimate dementia prevalence compared to Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and nationwide estimates of the literature. Results: A common three-factor cognitive construct of orientation, memory, and executive function and language was found for both cohorts with adequate model fits. Crude dementia prevalence estimated by factor scores was similar to MMSE in CLHLS, and was more reliable in CHARLS. Age-standardized dementia estimates of CLHLS were lower than CHARLS among those aged 70+, which were close to the nationwide prevalence reported by the COAST study and Global Burden of Disease. Discussion: We verified common three-factor cognitive constructs for both cohorts, providing an approach to estimate dementia prevalence at the national level. Highlights: Common three-factor cognitive constructs were identified in Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) and China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS).Crude dementia estimates using factor scores were reliable in both cohorts.Estimates of CHARLS were close to current evidence, but higher than that of CLHLS.

Identifying local authority need for, and uptake of, school-based physical activity promotion in England-a cluster analysis.

BACKGROUND: School-based physical activity interventions such as The Daily Mile (TDM) are widely promoted in children's physical activity guidance. However, targeting such interventions to areas of greatest need is challenging since determinants vary across geographical areas. Our study aimed to identify local authorities in England with the greatest need to increase children's physical activity and assess whether TDM reaches school populations in areas with the highest need. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study using routinely collected data from Public Health England. Datasets on health, census and the built environment were linked. We conducted a hierarchical cluster analysis to group local authorities by 'need' and estimated the association between 'need' and registration to TDM. RESULTS: We identified three clusters of high, medium and low need for physical activity interventions in 123 local authorities. Schools in high-need areas were more likely to be registered with TDM (incidence rate ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval: 1.12-1.39) compared with low-need areas. CONCLUSIONS: Determinants of children's physical activity cluster geographically across local authorities in England. TDM appears to be an equitable intervention reaching schools in local authorities with the highest needs. Health policy should account for clustering of health determinants to match interventions with populations most in need.

Impact of The Daily Mile on children's physical and mental health, and educational attainment in primary schools: iMprOVE cohort study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: School-based active mile initiatives such as The Daily Mile (TDM) are widely promoted to address shortfalls in meeting physical activity recommendations. The iMprOVE Study aims to examine the impact of TDM on children's physical and mental health and educational attainment throughout primary school. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: iMprOVE is a longitudinal quasi-experimental cohort study. We will send a survey to all state-funded primary schools in Greater London to identify participation in TDM. The survey responses will be used for non-random allocation to either the intervention group (Daily Mile schools) or to the control group (non-Daily Mile schools). We aim to recruit 3533 year 1 children (aged 5-6 years) from 77 primary schools and follow them up annually until the end of their primary school years. Data collection taking place at baseline (children in school year 1) and each primary school year thereafter includes device-based measures of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and questionnaires to measure mental health (Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire) and educational attainment (ratings from 'below expected' to 'above expected levels'). The primary outcome is the mean change in MVPA minutes from baseline to year 6 during the school day among the intervention group compared with controls. We will use multilevel linear regression models adjusting for sociodemographic data and participation in TDM. The study is powered to detect a 10% (5.5 min) difference between the intervention and control group which would be considered clinically significant. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics has been approved from Imperial College Research Ethics Committee, reference 20IC6127. Key findings will be disseminated to the public through research networks, social, print and media broadcasts, community engagement opportunities and schools. We will work with policy-makers for direct application and impact of our findings.

Sociodemographic profiles, educational attainment and physical activity associated with The Daily Mile™ registration in primary schools in England: a national cross-sectional linkage study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine primary school and local authority characteristics associated with registration for The Daily Mile (TDM), an active mile initiative aimed at increasing physical activity in children. DESIGN: A cross-sectional linkage study using routinely collected data. SETTING: All state-funded primary schools in England from 2012 to 2018 (n=15,815). RESULTS: 3,502 of all 15,815 (22.1%) state-funded primary schools in England were registered to do TDM, ranging from 16% in the East Midlands region to 31% in Inner London. Primary schools registered for TDM had larger mean pupil numbers compared with schools that had not registered (300 vs 269, respectively). There was a higher proportion of TDM-registered schools in urban areas compared with non-urban areas. There was local authority variation in the likelihood of school registration (intraclass correlation coefficient: 0.094). After adjusting for school and local authority characteristics, schools located in a major urban conurbation (OR 1.46 (95% CI 1.24 to 1.71) urban vs rural) and schools with a higher proportion of disadvantaged pupils had higher odds of being registered for TDM (OR 1.16 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.33)). Area-based physical activity and schools' educational attainment were not significantly associated with registration to TDM. CONCLUSION: One in five primary schools in England has registered for TDM since 2012. TDM appears to be a wide-reaching school-based physical activity intervention that is reaching more disadvantaged primary school populations in urban areas where obesity prevalence is highest. TDM-registered schools include those with both high and low educational attainment and are in areas with high and low physical activity.

Protocol for developing a core outcome set for evaluating school-based physical activity interventions in primary schools.

INTRODUCTION: Primary school-based physical activity interventions, such as The Daily Mile initiative, have the potential to increase children's physical activity levels over time, which is associated with a variety of health benefits. Comparing interventions or combining results of several studies of a single intervention is challenging because previous studies have examined different outcomes or used different measures that are not feasible or relevant for researchers in school settings. The development and implementation of a core outcome set (COS) for primary school-based physical activity interventions would ensure outcomes important to those involved in implementing and evaluating interventions are standardised. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Our aim is to develop a COS for studies of school-based physical activity interventions. We will achieve this by undertaking a four-stage process:(1) identify a list of outcomes assessed in studies through a systematic review of international literature; (2) establish domains from these outcomes to produce questionnaire items; (3) prioritise outcomes through a two-stage Delphi survey with four key stakeholder groups (researchers, public health professionals, educators and parents), where stakeholders rate the importance of each outcome on a 9-point Likert scale (consensus that the outcomes should be included in the COS will be determined as 70% or more of all stakeholders scoring the outcome 7%-9% and 15% or less scoring 1 to 3); (4) achieve consensus on a final COS in face-to-face meetings with a sample of stakeholders and primary school children. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: We have received ethical approval from Imperial College London (ref: 19IC5428). The results of this study will be disseminated via conference presentations/public health meetings, peer-reviewed publications and through appropriate media channels. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials Initiative (COMET) number: 1322.