Spatial sorting and range shifts: consequences for evolutionary potential and genetic signature of a dispersal trait.

Species are shifting their ranges under climate change, with genetic and evolutionary consequences. As a result, the spatial distribution of genetic diversity in a species' range can show a signature of range expansion. This genetic signature takes time to decay after the range stops expanding and it is important to take that lag time into account when interpreting contemporary spatial patterns of genetic diversity. In addition, the return to spatial equilibrium on an ecologically relevant timescale will depend on migration of genetic diversity across the species' range. However, during a range shift alleles may go extinct at the retracting range margin due to spatial sorting. Here we studied the spatial pattern of genotypes that differ in dispersal rate across the species range before, during and after a range shift, assessed the effect of range retraction on this pattern, and quantified the duration of the ephemeral genetic signature of range expansion for this trait. We performed simulation experiments with an individual-based metapopulation model under several contemporary climate change scenarios. The results show an increase of the number of individuals with high dispersal rate. If the temperature increased long enough the allele coding for low dispersal rate would go extinct. The duration of the genetic signature of range expansion after stabilisation of the species' distribution lasted up to 1200 generations after a temperature increase for 60 years at the contemporary rate. This depended on the total displacement of the climate optimum, as the product of the rate of temperature increase and its duration. So genetic data collected in the field do not necessarily reflect current selection pressures but can be affected by historic changes in species distribution, long after the establishment of the current species' range. Return to equilibrium patterns may be hampered by loss of evolutionary potential during range shift.

Prediction uncertainty of environmental change effects on temperate European biodiversity.

Observed patterns of species richness at landscape scale (gamma diversity) cannot always be attributed to a specific set of explanatory variables, but rather different alternative explanatory statistical models of similar quality may exist. Therefore predictions of the effects of environmental change (such as in climate or land cover) on biodiversity may differ considerably, depending on the chosen set of explanatory variables. Here we use multimodel prediction to evaluate effects of climate, land-use intensity and landscape structure on species richness in each of seven groups of organisms (plants, birds, spiders, wild bees, ground beetles, true bugs and hoverflies) in temperate Europe. We contrast this approach with traditional best-model predictions, which we show, using cross-validation, to have inferior prediction accuracy. Multimodel inference changed the importance of some environmental variables in comparison with the best model, and accordingly gave deviating predictions for environmental change effects. Overall, prediction uncertainty for the multimodel approach was only slightly higher than that of the best model, and absolute changes in predicted species richness were also comparable. Richness predictions varied generally more for the impact of climate change than for land-use change at the coarse scale of our study. Overall, our study indicates that the uncertainty introduced to environmental change predictions through uncertainty in model selection both qualitatively and quantitatively affects species richness projections.

Toward ecologically scaled landscape indices.

Nature conservation is increasingly based on a landscape approach rather than a species approach. Landscape planning that includes nature conservation goals requires integrated ecological tools. However, species differ widely in their response to landscape change. We propose a framework of ecologically scaled landscape indices that takes into account this variation. Our approach is based on a combination of field studies of spatially structured populations (metapopulations) and model simulations in artificial landscapes. From these, we seek generalities in the relationship among species features, landscape indices, and metapopulation viability. The concept of ecological species profiles is used to group species according to characteristics that are important in metapopulations' response to landscape change: individual area requirements as the dominant characteristic of extinction risk in landscape patches and dispersal distance as the main determinant of the ability to colonize patches. The ecological profiles and landscape indices are then integrated into two ecologically scaled landscape indices (ESLI): average patch carrying capacity and average patch connectivity. The field data show that the fraction of occupied habitat patches is correlated with the two ESLI. To put the ESLI into a perspective of metapopulation persistence, we determine the viability for six ecological profiles at different degrees of habitat fragmentation using a metapopulation model and computer-generated landscapes. The model results show that the fraction of occupied patches is a good indicator for metapopulation viability. We discuss how ecological profiles, ESLI, and the viability threshold can be applied for landscape planning and design in nature conservation.