Mortality limits used in wind energy impact assessment underestimate impacts of wind farms on bird populations.

The consequences of bird mortality caused by collisions with wind turbines are increasingly receiving attention. So-called acceptable mortality limits of populations, that is, those that assume that 1%-5% of additional mortality and the potential biological removal (PBR), provide seemingly clear-cut methods for establishing the reduction in population viability.We examine how the application of these commonly used mortality limits could affect populations of the Common Starling, Black-tailed Godwit, Marsh Harrier, Eurasian Spoonbill, White Stork, Common Tern, and White-tailed Eagle using stochastic density-independent and density-dependent Leslie matrix models.Results show that population viability can be very sensitive to proportionally small increases in mortality. Rather than having a negligible effect, we found that a 1% additional mortality in postfledging cohorts of our studied populations resulted in a 2%-24% decrease in the population level after 10 years. Allowing a 5% mortality increase to existing mortality resulted in a 9%-77% reduction in the populations after 10 years.When the PBR method is used in the density-dependent simulations, the proportional change in the resulting growth rate and carrying capacity was species-independent and largely determined by the recovery factor (F r). When F r = 1, a value typically used for robust populations, additional mortality resulted in a 50%-55% reduction in the equilibrium density and the resulting growth rate. When F r = 0.1, used for threatened populations, the reduction in the equilibrium density and growth rate was about 5%. Synthesis and applications. Our results show that by allowing a mortality increase from wind farm collisions according to both criteria, the population impacts of these collisions can still be severe. We propose a simple new method as an alternative that was able to estimate mortality impacts of age-structured stochastic density-dependent matrix models.

Rapid Diversity Loss of Competing Animal Species in Well-Connected Landscapes.

Population viability of a single species, when evaluated with metapopulation based landscape evaluation tools, always increases when the connectivity of the landscape increases. However, when interactions between species are taken into account, results can differ. We explore this issue using a stochastic spatially explicit meta-community model with 21 competing species in five different competitive settings: (1) weak, coexisting competition, (2) neutral competition, (3) strong, excluding competition, (4) hierarchical competition and (5) random species competition. The species compete in randomly generated landscapes with various fragmentation levels. With this model we study species loss over time. Simulation results show that overall diversity, the species richness in the entire landscape, decreases slowly in fragmented landscapes whereas in well-connected landscapes rapid species losses occur. These results are robust with respect to changing competitive settings, species parameters and spatial configurations. They indicate that optimal landscape configuration for species conservation differs between metapopulation approaches, modelling species separately and meta-community approaches allowing species interactions. The mechanism behind this is that species in well-connected landscapes rapidly outcompete each other. Species that become abundant, by chance or by their completive strength, send out large amounts of dispersers that colonize and take over other patches that are occupied by species that are less abundant. This mechanism causes rapid species loss. In fragmented landscapes the colonization rate is lower, and it is difficult for a new species to establish in an already occupied patch. So, here dominant species cannot easily take over patches occupied by other species and higher diversity is maintained for a longer time. These results suggest that fragmented landscapes have benefits for species conservation previously unrecognized by the landscape ecology and policy community. When species interactions are important, landscapes with a low fragmentation level can be better for species conservation than well-connected landscapes. Moreover, our results indicate that metapopulation based landscape evaluation tools may overestimate the value of connectivity and should be replaced by more realistic meta-community based tools.

No evidence of the effect of extreme weather events on annual occurrence of four groups of ectothermic species.

Weather extremes may have strong effects on biodiversity, as known from theoretical and modelling studies. Predicted negative effects of increased weather variation are found only for a few species, mostly plants and birds in empirical studies. Therefore, we investigated correlations between weather variability and patterns in occupancy, local colonisations and local extinctions (metapopulation metrics) across four groups of ectotherms: Odonata, Orthoptera, Lepidoptera, and Reptilia. We analysed data of 134 species on a 1×1 km-grid base, collected in the last 20 years from the Netherlands, combining standardised data and opportunistic data. We applied dynamic site-occupancy models and used the results as input for analyses of (i) trends in distribution patterns, (ii) the effect of temperature on colonisation and persistence probability, and (iii) the effect of years with extreme weather on all the three metapopulation metrics. All groups, except butterflies, showed more positive than negative trends in metapopulation metrics. We did not find evidence that the probability of colonisation or persistence increases with temperature nor that extreme weather events are reflected in higher extinction risks. We could not prove that weather extremes have visible and consistent negative effects on ectothermic species in temperate northern hemisphere. These findings do not confirm the general prediction that increased weather variability imperils biodiversity. We conclude that weather extremes might not be ecologically relevant for the majority of species. Populations might be buffered against weather variation (e.g. by habitat heterogeneity), or other factors might be masking the effects (e.g. availability and quality of habitat). Consequently, we postulate that weather extremes have less, or different, impact in real world metapopulations than theory and models suggest.

An individual-based approach to model spatial population dynamics of invertebrates in aquatic ecosystems after pesticide contamination.

In the present study we present a population model (Metapopulation model for Assessing Spatial and Temporal Effects of Pesticides [MASTEP]) describing the effects on and recovery of the waterlouse Asellus aquaticus after exposure to a fast-acting, nonpersistent insecticide as a result of spray drift in pond, ditch, and stream scenarios. The model used the spatial and temporal distribution of the exposure in different treatment conditions as an input parameter. A dose-response relation derived from a hypothetical mesocosm study was used to link the exposure with the effects. The modeled landscape was represented as a lattice of 1- by 1-m cells. The model included processes of mortality of A. aquaticus, life history, random walk between cells, density dependence of population regulation, and, in the case of the stream scenario, medium-distance drift of A. aquaticus due to flow. All parameter estimates were based on expert judgment and the results of a thorough review of published information on the ecology of A. aquaticus. In the treated part of the water body, the ditch scenario proved to be the worst-case situation, due to the absence of drift of A. aquaticus. Effects in the pond scenario were smaller because the pond was exposed from one side, allowing migration from the other, less contaminated side. The results of the stream scenario showed the importance of including drift for the population recovery in the 100-m stretch of the stream that was treated. It should be noted, however, that the inclusion of drift had a negligible impact on numbers in the stream as a whole (600 m).