Correction: Evaluating the health and health economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delayed cancer care in Belgium: A Markov model study protocol.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0288777.].

Evaluating the health and health economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on delayed cancer care in Belgium: A Markov model study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Cancer causes a substantial burden to our society, both from a health and an economic perspective. To improve cancer patient outcomes and lower society expenses, early diagnosis and timely treatment are essential. The recent COVID-19 crisis has disrupted the care trajectory of cancer patients, which may affect their prognosis in a potentially negative way. The purpose of this paper is to present a flexible decision-analytic Markov model methodology allowing the evaluation of the impact of delayed cancer care caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium which can be used by researchers to respond to diverse research questions in a variety of disruptive events, contexts and settings. METHODS: A decision-analytic Markov model was developed for 4 selected cancer types (i.e. breast, colorectal, lung, and head and neck), comparing the estimated costs and quality-adjusted life year losses between the pre-COVID-19 situation and the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium. Input parameters were derived from published studies (transition probabilities, utilities and indirect costs) and administrative databases (epidemiological data and direct medical costs). One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses are proposed to consider uncertainty in the input parameters and to assess the robustness of the model's results. Scenario analyses are suggested to evaluate methodological and structural assumptions. DISCUSSION: The results that such decision-analytic Markov model can provide are of interest to decision makers because they help them to effectively allocate resources to improve the health outcomes of cancer patients and to reduce the costs of care for both patients and healthcare systems. Our study provides insights into methodological aspects of conducting a health economic evaluation of cancer care and COVID-19 including insights on cancer type selection, the elaboration of a Markov model, data inputs and analysis.

End-of-Life Care in the Last Three Months before Death in Older Patients with Cancer in Belgium: A Large Retrospective Cohort Study Using Data Linkage.

This study aims to describe end-of-life (EOL) care in older patients with cancer and investigate the association between geriatric assessment (GA) results and specialized palliative care (SPC) use. Older patients with a new cancer diagnosis (2009-2015) originally included in a previous multicentric study were selected if they died before the end of follow-up (2019). At the time of cancer diagnosis, patients underwent geriatric screening with Geriatric 8 (G8) followed by GA in case of a G8 score ≤14/17. These data were linked to the cancer registry and healthcare reimbursement data for follow-up. EOL care was assessed in the last three months before death, and associations were analyzed using logistic regression. A total of 3546 deceased older patients with cancer with a median age of 79 years at diagnosis were included. Breast, colon, and lung cancer were the most common diagnoses. In the last three months of life, 76.3% were hospitalized, 49.1% had an emergency department visit, and 43.5% received SPC. In total, 55.0% died in the hospital (38.5% in a non-palliative care unit and 16.4% in a palliative care unit). In multivariable analyses, functional and cognitive impairment at cancer diagnosis was associated with less SPC. Further research on optimizing EOL healthcare utilization and broadening access to SPC is needed.

Long-term health-care utilisation in older patients with cancer and the association with the Geriatric 8 screening tool: a retrospective analysis using linked clinical and population-based data in Belgium.

BACKGROUND: Little evidence is available on the long-term health-care utilisation of older patients with cancer and whether this is associated with geriatric screening results. We aimed to evaluate long-term health-care utilisation among older patients after cancer diagnosis and the association with baseline Geriatric 8 (G8) screening results. METHODS: For this retrospective analysis, we included data from three cohort studies for patients (aged ≥70 years) with a new cancer diagnosis who underwent G8 screening between Oct 19, 2009 and Feb 27, 2015, and who survived more than 3 months after G8 screening. The clinical data were linked to cancer registry and health-care reimbursement data for long-term follow-up. The occurrence of outcomes (inpatient hospital admissions, emergency department visits, use of intensive care, contacts with general practitioner [GP], contacts with a specialist, use of home care, and nursing home admissions) was assessed in the 3 years after G8 screening. We assessed the association between outcomes and baseline G8 score (normal score [>14] or abnormal [≤14]) using adjusted rate ratios (aRRs) calculated from Poisson regression and using cumulative incidence calculated as a time-to-event analysis with the Kaplan-Meier method. FINDINGS: 7556 patients had a new cancer diagnosis, of whom 6391 patients (median age 77 years [IQR 74-82]) met inclusion criteria and were included. 4110 (64·3%) of 6391 patients had an abnormal baseline G8 score (≤14 of 17 points). In the first 3 months after G8 screening, health-care utilisation peaked and then decreased over time, with the exception of GP contacts and home care days, which remained high throughout the 3-year follow-up period. Compared with patients with a normal baseline G8 score, patients with an abnormal baseline G8 score had more hospital admissions (aRR 1·20 [95% CI 1·15-1·25]; p<0·0001), hospital days (1·66 [1·64-1·68]; p<0·0001), emergency department visits (1·42 [1·34-1·52]; p<0·0001), intensive care days (1·49 [1·39-1·60]; p<0·0001), general practitioner contacts (1·19 [1·17-1·20]; p<0·0001), home care days (1·59 [1·58-1·60]; p<0·0001), and nursing home admissions (16·7% vs 3·1%; p<0·0001) in the 3-year follow-up period. At 3 years, of the 2281 patients with a normal baseline G8 score, 1421 (62·3%) continued to live at home independently and 503 (22·0%) had died. Of the 4110 patients with an abnormal baseline G8 score, 1057 (25·7%) continued to live at home independently and 2191 (53·3%) had died. INTERPRETATION: An abnormal G8 score at cancer diagnosis was associated with increased health-care utilisation in the subsequent 3 years among patients who survived longer than 3 months. FUNDING: Stand up to Cancer, the Flemish Cancer Society.

Machine Learning Algorithm to Estimate Distant Breast Cancer Recurrence at the Population Level with Administrative Data.

Purpose: High-quality population-based cancer recurrence data are scarcely available, mainly due to complexity and cost of registration. For the first time in Belgium, we developed a tool to estimate distant recurrence after a breast cancer diagnosis at the population level, based on real-world cancer registration and administrative data. Methods: Data on distant cancer recurrence (including progression) from patients diagnosed with breast cancer between 2009-2014 were collected from medical files at 9 Belgian centers to train, test and externally validate an algorithm (i.e., gold standard). Distant recurrence was defined as the occurrence of distant metastases between 120 days and within 10 years after the primary diagnosis, with follow-up until December 31, 2018. Data from the gold standard were linked to population-based data from the Belgian Cancer Registry (BCR) and administrative data sources. Potential features to detect recurrences in administrative data were defined based on expert opinion from breast oncologists, and subsequently selected using bootstrap aggregation. Based on the selected features, classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was performed to construct an algorithm for classifying patients as having a distant recurrence or not. Results: A total of 2507 patients were included of whom 216 had a distant recurrence in the clinical data set. The performance of the algorithm showed sensitivity of 79.5% (95% CI 68.8-87.8%), positive predictive value (PPV) of 79.5% (95% CI 68.8-87.8%), and accuracy of 96.7% (95% CI 95.4-97.7%). The external validation resulted in a sensitivity of 84.1% (95% CI 74.4-91.3%), PPV of 84.1% (95% CI 74.4-91.3%), and an accuracy of 96.8% (95% CI 95.4-97.9%). Conclusion: Our algorithm detected distant breast cancer recurrences with an overall good accuracy of 96.8% for patients with breast cancer, as observed in the first multi-centric external validation exercise.

The epidemiology of multiple primary cancers in Belgium (2004-2017): Incidence, proportion, risk, stage and impact on relative survival estimates.

BACKGROUND: As both life expectancy and cancer survival improve, the incidence of multiple primary cancer has augmented and is expected to further increase. This study describes for the first time the epidemiology of multiple invasive tumours in Belgium. METHODS: This nationwide study, based on all cancers diagnosed between 2004 and 2017 in Belgium, describes the proportion of multiple primary cancer, its evolution over time, the impact of inclusion or exclusion of multiple primary cancer on relative survival estimates, the risk of developing a second primary cancer, and the difference in stage between first and second primary cancer for the same patient. RESULTS: The proportion of multiple primary cancer increases with age, varies across cancer sites (from 4% for testis cancer to 22.8% for oesophageal cancer), is higher in men than in women, and has linearly increased over time. The inclusion of multiple primary cancer resulted in smaller 5-year relative survival and this impact is more pronounced in cancer sites with high relative survival. Patients with a first primary cancer have an increased risk to develop a new primary cancer compared to the population without a previous cancer history (1.27 and 1.59 times higher in men and women, respectively) and this risk depends on cancer site. Second primary cancers are associated with more advanced stages and more unknown stages than the corresponding first cancer diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: This study describes multiple primary cancer according to several measures (proportion, standardised incidence ratio for an second primary cancer, impact of multiple primary cancer on relative survival and differences according to stage) for the first time in Belgium. The results are based on data of a population-based cancer registry with a relatively recent onset (2004).

Linking clinical and population-based data in older patients with cancer in Belgium: Feasibility and clinical outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: Geriatric screening and geriatric assessment (GS/GA) have proven their benefits in the care for older patients with cancer. However, less is known about the predictive value of GS/GA for outcomes. To research this, clinical data on GS/GA can be enriched with population-based data. In this article we describe the methods and feasibility of data linkage, and first clinical outcomes (GS/GA results and overall survival). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A large cohort study consisting of patients aged ≥70 years with a new cancer diagnosis was established using linked data from clinical and population-based databases. Clinical data were derived from a previous prospective study where older patients with cancer were screened with G8, followed by GA in case of an abnormal result (GS/GA study; 2009-2015). These data were linked to cancer registration data from the Belgian Cancer Registry (BCR), reimbursement data of the health insurance companies (InterMutualistic Agency, IMA), and hospital discharge data (Technical Cell, TCT). Cox regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the prognostic value of the G8 geriatric screening tool. RESULTS: Of the 8067 eligible patients with a new cancer diagnosis, linkage of data from the GS/GA study and data from the BCR was successful for 93.7%, resulting in a cohort of 7556 patients available for the current analysis. Further linkage with the IMA and TCT database resulted in a cohort of 7314 patients (96.8%). Based on G8 geriatric screening, 67.9% of the patients had a geriatric risk profile. Malnutrition and functional dependence were the most common GA-identified risk factors. An abnormal baseline G8 score (≤14/17) was associated with lower overall survival (adjusted HR [aHR] = 1.62 [1.50-1.75], p < 0.001). DISCUSSION: Linking clinical and population-based databases for older patients with cancer has shown to be feasible. The GS/GA results at cancer diagnosis demonstrate the vulnerability of this population and the G8 score showed prognostic value for overall survival. The established cohort of almost 8000 patients with long-term follow-up will serve as a basis in the future for detailed analyses on long-term outcomes beyond survival.

The effect of the Flemish breast cancer screening program on breast cancer-specific mortality: A case-referent study.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer screening programs were introduced in many countries worldwide following randomized controlled trials in the 1980s showing a reduction in breast cancer-specific mortality. However, their effectiveness remains debated and estimates vary. A breast cancer screening program was introduced in 2001 in Flanders, Belgium where high levels of opportunistic screening practices are observed. The effectiveness of this program was estimated by measuring its effect on breast cancer-specific mortality. METHODS: We performed a case-referent study to investigate the effect of participation in the Flemish population-based mammography screening program (PMSP) on breast cancer-specific mortality from 2005 to 2017. A multiple logistic regression model assessed the association between breast cancer-specific death and screening program participation status in the four years prior to (pseudo)diagnosis (yes/no), with adjustment for potential confounders (individual socio-economic position and calendar year of diagnosis) and stratified for age. In addition, we performed different sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: We identified 1571 cases and randomly selected 6284 referents. After adjustment, women who participated in PMSP had a 51 % lower risk of breast cancer-specific mortality compared to those who did not (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] =0.49, 95 % CI: 0.44-0.55). Sensitivity analyses did not markedly change the estimated associations. Correction for self-selection bias reduced the effect size, but the estimate remained significant. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that in a context of high opportunistic screening rates, participation in breast cancer screening program substantially reduces breast cancer-specific mortality. For policy, these results should be balanced against the potential harms of screening, including overdiagnosis and overtreatment.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Incidence and Observed Survival of Malignant Brain Tumors in Belgium.

(1) Background: This study evaluates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence, treatment, and survival of adults diagnosed with malignant brain tumors in Belgium in 2020. (2) Methods: We examined patients aged 20 and older with malignant brain tumors (2004-2020) from the Belgian Cancer Registry database, assessing incidence, WHO performance status, vital status, and treatment data. We compared 2020 incidence rates with projected rates and age-standardized rates to 2015-2019. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to assess observed survival (OS). (3) Results: In 2020, there was an 8% drop in age-specific incidence rates, particularly for those over 50. Incidence rates plunged by 37% in April 2020 during the first COVID-19 peak but partially recovered by July. For all malignant brain tumors together, the two-year OS decreased by four percentage points (p.p.) in 2020 and three p.p. in 2019, compared to that in 2015-2018. Fewer patients (-9 p.p.) with glioblastoma underwent surgery, and the proportion of patients not receiving surgery, radiotherapy, or systemic therapy increased by six percentage points in 2020. (4) Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly impacted the diagnosis, treatment strategies, and survival of brain tumor patients in Belgium during 2020. These findings should guide policymakers in future outbreak responses, emphasizing the need to maintain or adapt (neuro)-oncological care pathways and promote informed decision making when care capacity is limited.

Correlation of TROP-2 expression with clinical-pathological characteristics and outcome in triple-negative breast cancer.

Limited data exist regarding the associations between TROP-2 protein expression, clinical-pathological characteristics, and outcome in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). TROP-2 expression was determined for patients diagnosed with TNBC between 2000 and 2017 by immunohistochemistry (IHC) (ab227689, Abcam) on whole slide tumor sections, and assessed as continuous and categorical variables (H-score high, 201-300, medium 100-200 and low < 100). We investigated the prognostic value of TROP-2 expression for relapse and survival, associations between TROP-2 expression and baseline patient and tumor characteristics, stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (sTILs), androgen receptor (AR), standardized mitotic index (SMI) and pathological complete response (pCR, in patients with neoadjuvant chemotherapy) were assessed. We included 685 patients with a median age at diagnosis of 54 years (range 22-90 years). After median follow-up of 9.6 years, 17.5% of patients experienced distant relapse. TROP-2 expression was high, medium and low in 97 (16.5%), 149 (25.3%) and 343 (58.2%) of patients, respectively. The presence of LVI, associated DCIS, nodal involvement, apocrine histology and AR expression were correlated with higher TROP-2 levels. There were no associations between TROP-2 expression and sTILs, time-to-event outcomes, or pCR rate after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. TROP-2 expression is not associated with sTILs level and has no prognostic value in our cohort of stage 1-3 TNBC. However, an association with histotype and AR expression was found, suggesting a histotype specific TROP-2 expression pattern with highest expression in apocrine subtype, warranting further research.

Long-term exposure to residential green spaces and site-specific cancer mortality in urban Belgium: A 13-year follow-up cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Residing in greener areas may decrease the burden of chronic diseases, but the association with cancer is unclear. We studied the associations between residential green spaces and site-specific cancer mortality in urban Belgium. METHODOLOGY: We linked the 2001 Belgian census, register mortality data for 2001-2014, and environmental information (green spaces and air pollution) at baseline residence (2001). We included residents from the largest Belgian urban areas aged ≥ 30 years at baseline. Exposure to residential green spaces was assessed using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Urban Atlas, and perceived neighbourhood greenness (from the census). We used Cox proportional hazards models to obtain hazard ratios (HR) and their 95 % confidence intervals (95 %CI) of the mortality risk from lung, colorectal, breast (in women) and prostate cancer (in men) per interquartile range increment in residential green spaces. We further analyzed the role of outdoor air pollution and effect modification by age and socioeconomic position (SEP) in main associations. RESULTS: 2,441,566 individuals were included at baseline. During follow-up, 1.2 % died from lung cancer, 0.6 % from colorectal cancer, 0.8 % from breast cancer, and 0.6 % from prostate cancer. After adjustment, higher exposure to green spaces was associated with a reduced mortality risk from lung cancer and breast cancer [e.g., for NDVI within 300 m, HR:0.946 (95 %CI:0.924,0.970), and HR:0.927 (95 %CI:0.892,0.963), respectively], but not with colorectal or prostate cancer mortality. For the latter, a suggestive hazardous effect of green spaces was found. Air pollution seemed to have only a marginal role. Beneficial effects of greenspace were generally stronger in < 65-year-old, but no clear trend by SEP was found. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that residing in green areas could decrease mortality risk from lung and breast cancer, potentially independent from air pollution. Future studies should consider different indicators of greenspace exposure and investigate potential pathways underlying the associations.

Prognostic value of high-risk human papillomavirus DNA and p16INK4a immunohistochemistry in patients with anal cancer: An individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: High-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) types represent the aetiological agents in a major proportion of anal squamous cell carcinomas (ASCC). Several studies have suggested a prognostic relevance of HPV-related markers, particularly hrHPV DNA and p16INK4a (p16) protein expression, in patients with ASCC. However, broader evaluation of these prognostic marker candidates has been hampered by small cohort sizes and heterogeneous survival data among the individual studies. We conducted an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis to determine the prognostic value of hrHPV DNA and p16 in patients with ASCC while controlling for major clinical and tumour covariates. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted to identify all published studies analysing p16 alone or in combination with hrHPV DNA and reporting survival data in patients with ASCC. Clinical and tumour-related IPD were requested from authors of potentially eligible studies. Survival analyses were performed with a proportional hazard Cox model stratified by study and adjusted for relevant covariates. The study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for the exposures were pooled using a random-effects model. Kaplan-Meier curves from different studies were pooled per exposure group and weighted by the study's total sample size. RESULTS: Seven studies providing IPD from 693 patients with ASCC could be included in the meta-analysis. Seventy-six percent of patients were p16+/hrHPV DNA+, whereas 11% were negative for both markers. A discordant marker status was observed in 13% of cases. Patients with p16+/hrHPV DNA+ ASCC showed significantly superior overall survival (OS) compared with patients with p16-/hrHPV DNA- tumours (pooled adjusted HR = 0.26 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.14-0.50]) with pooled three-year OS rates of 86% (95% CI, 82-90%) versus 39% (95% CI, 24-54%). Patients with discordant p16 and hrHPV DNA status showed intermediate three-year OS rates (75% [95% CI, 56-86%] for p16+/hrHPV DNA- and 55% [95% CI, 35-71%] for p16-/hrHPV DNA+ ASCC). CONCLUSION: This first IPD meta-analysis controlling for confounding variables shows that patients with p16+/hrHPV DNA+ ASCC have a significantly better survival than patients with p16-/hrHPV DNA- tumours.

Excess Mortality in a Nationwide Cohort of Cancer Patients during the Initial Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Belgium.

BACKGROUND: Most studies investigating the impact of coronavirus infectious disease-19 (COVID-19) on mortality among patients with cancer were performed in a hospital setting, and the evidence is thus based on a selected and frail subset of patients. This study evaluates the excess mortality during the first wave of COVID-19 in a nationwide, prevalent cancer cohort in Belgium. METHODS: Mortality was studied among almost 240,000 patients with cancer diagnosed between 2013 and 2018 and alive on January 1, 2020. The observed number of deaths in the months January to June 2020 was compared with the expected number of deaths applying the monthly mortality rates observed in the cancer cohort during the previous years. A comparison using the excess mortality rates from the general population was performed. RESULTS: An excess number of deaths of about 400 was observed in the month of April, coinciding with a peak of COVID-19 diagnoses in Belgium and corresponding to a 33% rise in mortality. A comparable number of excess deaths was estimated if the COVID-19 excess mortality rates from the general Belgian population were applied to the cancer cohort, stratified by age and sex. CONCLUSIONS: A considerable excess mortality in the Belgian cancer cohort was observed during the initial peak of COVID-19 in Belgium. The pattern of excess mortality was, however, not markedly different from that observed in the general population. IMPACT: These results suggest that the susceptibility of prevalent cancer patients to COVID-19-induced mortality during the first wave of the pandemic was comparable with the general population.

Cause of death for patients with breast cancer: discordance between death certificates and medical files, and impact on survival estimates.

BACKGROUND: Registration and coding of cause of death is prone to error since determining the exact underlying condition leading directly to death is challenging. In this study, causes of death from the death certificates were compared to patients' medical files interpreted by experts at University Hospitals Leuven (UHL), to assess concordance between sources and its impact on cancer survival assessment. METHODS: Breast cancer patients treated at UHL (2009-2014) (follow-up until December 31st 2016) were included in this study. Cause of death was obtained from death certificates and expert-reviewed medical files at UHL. Agreement was calculated using Cohen's kappa coefficient. Cause-specific survival (CSS) was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the relative survival probability (RS) using the Ederer II and Pohar Perme method. RESULTS: A total of 2862 patients, of whom 354 died, were included. We found an agreement of 84.7% (kappa-value of 0.69 (95% C.I.: 0.62-0.77)) between death certificates and medical files. Death certificates had 10.7% false positive and 4.5% false negative rates. However, five-year CSS and RS measures were comparable for both sources. CONCLUSION: For breast cancer patients included in our study, fair agreement of cause of death was seen between death certificates and medical files with similar CSS and RS estimations.

Socio-Economic Position, Cancer Incidence and Stage at Diagnosis: A Nationwide Cohort Study in Belgium.

Background: Socio-economic position is associated with cancer incidence, but the direction and magnitude of this relationship differs across cancer types, geographical regions, and socio-economic parameters. In this nationwide cohort study, we evaluated the association between different individual-level socio-economic and -demographic factors, cancer incidence, and stage at diagnosis in Belgium. Methods: The 2001 census was linked to the nationwide Belgian Cancer Registry for cancer diagnoses between 2004 and 2013. Socio-economic parameters included education level, household composition, and housing conditions. Incidence rate ratios were assessed through Poisson regression models. Stage-specific analyses were conducted through logistic regression models. Results: Deprived groups showed higher risks for lung cancer and head and neck cancers, whereas an inverse relation was observed for malignant melanoma and female breast cancer. Typically, associations were more pronounced in men than in women. A lower socio-economic position was associated with reduced chances of being diagnosed with known or early stage at diagnosis; the strongest disparities were found for male lung cancer and female breast cancer. Conclusions: This study identified population groups at increased risk of cancer and unknown or advanced stage at diagnosis in Belgium. Further investigation is needed to build a comprehensive picture of socio-economic inequality in cancer incidence.

Non-aspirin NSAID use and mortality of endometrial cancer. A nationwide cohort study.

PURPOSE: Laboratory studies have shown anti-neoplastic properties of non-aspirin NSAID; however, no studies have examined the influence of non-aspirin NSAIDs as potential adjuvant cancer therapy in women with endometrial cancer. We therefore examined the association between post-diagnostic use of non-aspirin NSAIDs and endometrial cancer mortality in Denmark. METHODS: We identified all women with a primary endometrial cancer diagnosis between 2000 and 2012, who were alive one year after the diagnosis. Information on drug use, cause-specific mortality and potential confounders was obtained from nationwide health- and demographic registries. Cox regression models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between post-diagnostic non-aspirin NSAID use and endometrial cancer mortality. RESULTS: Among 6 694 endometrial cancer patients with a maximum follow-up of 13 years, 753 women died from endometrial cancer. Post-diagnostic non-aspirin NSAID use (≥ 1 filled prescription) was associated with an overall HR of 1.15 (95% CI; 0.97-1.36) for endometrial cancer mortality, with higher HRs for the highest intensity of use (HR; 1.40, 95% CI; 1.11-1.77) and largest cumulative amount (HR; 1.56, 95% CI; 1.14-2.14). CONCLUSION: Our findings yielded no evidence that use of non-aspirin NSAIDs was associated with reduced endometrial cancer. Rather, we observed that high-intensity and large cumulative amount of non-aspirin NSAID use may be associated with increased endometrial cancer mortality.

Cancer risk among individuals of migrant origin in Belgium during the 2000s - Evidence of migration as a 'cancer risk transition'?

Recent research has shown a generally lower cancer risk and mortality among migrants from less-industrialised country origin. However, while rates are usually lower for 'lifestyle-related' cancers (e.g. breast, prostate, lung, colorectal), they are typically elevated for 'infection-related' ones such as liver and stomach cancer. Although these observations appear in line with the theory of 'migration as a rapid epidemiological transition', changes in cancer risk after migration have yet to be investigated, effectively testing if migration also entails a 'rapid cancer risk transition'. This study therefore examines cancer risk among migrants in Belgium, focusing on colorectal cancer as a typically lifestyle-related cancer on the one hand, and infection-related cancers on the other hand. We subdivide migrant groups of more and less industrialised country origin according to duration of stay, and calculate absolute and relative incidence rates between 2004 and 2013. Our findings corroborate the transition assumptions for men from Turkey and Morocco, but cannot support them for women. Italian male immigrants have an in-between position: their colorectal cancer risk does not differ from that of Belgian men, but infection-related and non-cardia stomach cancer risks are higher and remain so with longer duration of stay. The fact that rates for migrants from the Netherlands and France generally do not differ from those of Belgians further strengthens support for a cancer transition among male migrants. Further examinations should focus on changes in health-related behaviour that can explain persistently low colorectal cancer risks among Turkish and Moroccan migrants and can inform preventive strategies for other population subgroups. Knowledge about the higher non-cardia stomach cancer risk among Turkish, Moroccan, and Italian men can support early detection strategies by primary care providers when patients present with gastric symptoms, especially because this cancer tends to have unfavourable prognosis.

Low-dose aspirin use and risk of head and neck cancer-A Danish nationwide case-control study.

Results concerning a potential preventive effect of aspirin on head and neck cancer (HNC) are conflicting. We examined the association between low-dose aspirin use and HNC risk overall and by degree of human papillomavirus association in a nested case-control study using nationwide registries. Cases (n = 12 389) were all Danish residents diagnosed with primary HNC (2000-2015). Age- and sex-matched population controls (n = 185 835) were selected by risk-set-sampling. Using conditional logistic regression, we estimated multivariable-adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for HNC associated with low-dose aspirin use (≥2 prescriptions). No association was observed between low-dose aspirin ever-use and overall HNC (odds ratio: 1.03, 95% confidence interval: 0.97-1.10). Estimates remained neutral according to patterns of use. Low-dose aspirin use appeared to slightly decrease HNC risk among the eldest (71-84 y), independently of human papillomavirus association, while slightly increase HNC risk among younger age groups (30-60, 61-70 y), driven by an increased risk of oral cancer. However, no consistent patterns in risk estimates were found according to duration and consistency of low-dose aspirin use in the age-stratified analyses.

Social Inequalities in Cancer Survival in Belgium: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic status (SES) is an important factor in cancer survival; however, results are heterogeneous and linked to characteristics of the study population and health care system. This population-based cohort study evaluates the association between individual-level socioeconomic and demographic factors and cancer survival for the first time in Belgium. METHODS: From the Belgian Cancer Registry, we identified 109,591 patients diagnosed between 2006 and 2013 with one of eight common cancer types. Information on treatment, socioeconomic parameters, and vital status were retrieved from multiple data sources and linked using a unique personal identification number. The outcome was 5-year observed survival. Associations between survival and socioeconomic and demographic factors were assessed using multivariable Cox proportional-hazard regression models. RESULTS: Lower income, unemployment, and living alone were all associated with worse cancer survival. These associations were most pronounced for certain lifestyle-related cancer types (e.g., head and neck cancers) and those with good to moderate prognosis (e.g., colorectal and female breast cancer). CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that, despite a comprehensive and nationwide health insurance program in which equity in rights and access to health care are pursued, SES is associated with disparities in cancer survival in Belgium. IMPACT: This population-based study with individual-level socioeconomic information of more than 100,000 patients with cancer identifies patient groups that may be at highest risk for socioeconomic disparities in cancer survival. Reasons behind the observed disparities are multiple and complex and should be further examined. Health policy interventions should consider the observed deprivation gap to plan targeted actions.

Prevalence of human papillomavirus in oral epithelial dysplasia: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to estimate the overall and type-specific prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA in oral epithelial dysplasia and assess p16INK4a overexpression in relation to HPV-status. A systematic literature search identified 31 eligible studies (832 cases) evaluating the presence of HPV DNA in oral epithelial dysplasia cases by PCR. Of these, six studies evaluated p16INK4a overexpression in relation to HPV-status. The overall pooled prevalence of HPV DNA in oral epithelial dysplasia was 27.2% (95% CI: 17.6-38.1). We observed substantial interstudy heterogeneity, which could not be explained by differences in continent, tissue type, or severity of epithelial dysplasia. HPV16 was the predominant genotype detected. Moreover, 62.2% of HPV positive and 17.8% of HPV negative oral epithelial dysplasia samples stained intensively positive for p16INK4a . This meta-analysis found that 27% of oral epithelial dysplasia harbor HPV DNA. Whether this represents a transient infection or has a carcinogenic role is unknown.