Classification of rheumatoid arthritis into active or inactive with a modified Disease Activity score, for future use as a treat-to-target tool, with a HandScan score replacing joint counts.

OBJECTIVES: To establish the value of a modified Disease Activity score with Optical Spectral Transmission score (DAS-OST) without joint counts but with a HandScan score, versus that of DAS28, to classify rheumatoid arthritis (RA) as active versus inactive, with as reference standard the rheumatologist's clinical classification. METHODS: RA patients with at least one HandScan and DAS28 measurement performed at the same visit were included. Data was extracted from medical records, as was the clinical interpretation as active or inactive RA by the rheumatologist. Logistic regression analyses were performed to calculate areas under the receiver operating characteristics (AU-ROC) curves. The clinical interpretation was used as reference standard in all analyses, and disease activity measures were used as predictor variables. The performance of predictor variables (AU-ROCs) was compared. RESULTS: The data of 1505 RA patients were used for analyses. The highest AU-ROC of 0.88 (95%CI 0.85-0.90) was shown for DAS28; AU-ROC of DAS-OST was 0.78 (95%CI 0.75-0.81), difference 0.10, p<0.01. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to DAS28, DAS-OST classified RA statistically significantly less well as active versus inactive, when using the clinical classification as reference standard. However, a DAS-modification without joint scores might have a place in strategies limiting routine outpatients' visits to the rheumatologist.

Efficacy of Tocilizumab Monotherapy Versus Tocilizumab and Methotrexate Combination Therapy in the Prevention of Radiographic Progression in Rheumatoid Arthritis: An Analysis Using Individual Patient Data From Multiple Clinical Trials.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effects of preventing radiographic progression (in its 3 components) of tocilizumab (TCZ) monotherapy with those of TCZ and methotrexate (MTX) in combination therapy (TCZ + MTX), and to evaluate possible effect modifiers in this model. METHODS: Randomized trials that compared TCZ monotherapy to TCZ + MTX combination therapy for differences in radiographic progression were analyzed on an individual patient data level using mixed-effects models, and data were collected from 820 subjects with either early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) or established RA. Outcomes were classified as the absence of radiographic progression after 2 years (i.e., preventing radiographic progression) as measured by total Sharp/van der Heijde score (SHS), erosion score, and joint space narrowing (JSN) score. Effect modification by baseline joint damage, disease duration, and Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28) was studied. RESULTS: Overall, TCZ + MTX combination therapy was more effective in preventing radiographic progression compared to TCZ monotherapy, which was measured by total SHS score. However, in patients with early RA who had more joint damage compared to those with less joint damage at baseline (relative risk [RR] 1.02 versus RR 0.91, respectively) or in patients with a lower DAS28 score compared to those with a higher DAS28 score (RR 1.04 versus RR 0.92, respectively) at baseline, this advantage disappeared. In patients with established RA, the advantage of TCZ + MTX versus TCZ alone in the prevention of radiographic progression disappeared with a longer disease duration at baseline (RR 1.04 versus 0.83). Results of erosion scores as an outcome were in line with these findings, though findings for JSN scores were less clear. CONCLUSION: Combination therapy with TCZ + MTX is more effective in preventing radiographic progression compared to TCZ monotherapy, but the effectiveness of TCZ monotherapy may approximate the effectiveness of TCZ + MTX in patients with early RA who have more joint damage and/or a lower DAS28 at baseline and in patients with established RA who have longer disease duration.

Development and Validation of Rheumatoid Arthritis Disease Activity Indices Including HandScan (Optical Spectral Transmission) Scores.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a composite rheumatoid arthritis (RA) disease activity index using optical spectral transmission (OST) scores obtained with the HandScan, replacing tender and swollen joint counts. METHODS: RA patients from a single center routinely undergoing HandScan measurements with at least 1 concurrent OST score and Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28) were included. Data were extracted from medical records. Linear regression analyses with the DAS28 as the outcome were performed to create a disease activity index (DAS-OST). OST score, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), and patient global assessment (PtGA) visual analog scale (VAS), sex, age, disease duration, and rheumatoid factor status were evaluated as independent variables. Final models were derived based on the statistical significance of coefficients and model fit. Of the data, two-thirds were used for development and one-third for validation; external validation was performed in a cohort from another center. Agreement between DAS-OST and DAS28 was assessed using the Bland-Altman plot method and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Diagnostic value of the DAS-OST was determined for established definitions of remission, low disease activity (LDA), and high disease activity (HDA). RESULTS: Data of 3,358 observations from 1,505 unique RA patients were extracted. DAS-OST was defined as: -0.44 + OST × 0.03 + male × -0.11 + LN(ESR) × 0.77 + PtGA VAS × 0.03. The ICCs between DAS-OST and DAS28 were 0.88 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.87-0.90) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.75-0.86) and measurement errors were 0.58 and 0.87 in internal and external validation, respectively. Sensitivity for remission, LDA, and HDA was 79%, 91%, and 43%, respectively, and specificity was 92%, 80%, and 96% in external validation. CONCLUSION: Using the HandScan, RA disease activity can be accurately estimated if combined with ESR, PtGA VAS, and sex into a disease activity index (DAS-OST).

Utility of the HandScan in monitoring disease activity and prediction of clinical response in rheumatoid arthritis patients: an explorative study.

OBJECTIVES: The aims were to determine the ability of the HandScan [assessing inflammation in hand and wrist joints using optical spectral transmission (OST)] to measure RA disease activity longitudinally, compared with DAS28, and to determine whether short-term (i.e. 1 month) changes in the OST score can predict treatment response at 3 or 6 months. METHODS: Participants visited the outpatient clinic before the start of (additional) RA medication and 1, 3 and 6 months thereafter. Disease activity was monitored at each visit with the HandScan and DAS28 in parallel. A mixed effects model with DAS28 as the outcome variable with a random intercept at patient level, visit month and DAS28 one visit earlier was used to evaluate whether changes in the OST score are related to changes in DAS28. Binary logistic regression was used to test the predictive value of short-term changes in the OST score together with the baseline OST score for achievement of treatment response (EULAR or ACR criteria). All models were adjusted for RA stage (early or established). RESULTS: In total, 64 RA patients were included. One unit change in OST score was found to be related to an average DAS28 change of 0.03 (95% CI: 0.01, 0.06, P = 0.03). When adding OST score as a variable in the longitudinal model, the ability of the model to estimate DAS28 (i.e. explained variance) increased by 2%, to 59%. Neither baseline OST score nor short-term change in OST score was predictive for treatment response at 3 or 6 months. CONCLUSION: A longitudinal association of OST score with DAS28 exists, although explained variance is low. The predictive ability of short-term changes in HandScan for treatment response is limited.

Complex Machine-Learning Algorithms and Multivariable Logistic Regression on Par in the Prediction of Insufficient Clinical Response to Methotrexate in Rheumatoid Arthritis.

The goals of this study were to examine whether machine-learning algorithms outperform multivariable logistic regression in the prediction of insufficient response to methotrexate (MTX); secondly, to examine which features are essential for correct prediction; and finally, to investigate whether the best performing model specifically identifies insufficient responders to MTX (combination) therapy. The prediction of insufficient response (3-month Disease Activity Score 28-Erythrocyte-sedimentation rate (DAS28-ESR) > 3.2) was assessed using logistic regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), random forest, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). The baseline features of 355 rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients from the "treatment in the Rotterdam Early Arthritis CoHort" (tREACH) and the U-Act-Early trial were combined for analyses. The model performances were compared using area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), and sensitivity and specificity. Finally, the best performing model following feature selection was tested on 101 RA patients starting tocilizumab (TCZ)-monotherapy. Logistic regression (AUC = 0.77 95% CI: 0.68-0.86) performed as well as LASSO (AUC = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.67-0.85), random forest (AUC = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.61 = 0.81), and XGBoost (AUC = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.61-0.81), yet logistic regression reached the highest sensitivity (81%). The most important features were baseline DAS28 (components). For all algorithms, models with six features performed similarly to those with 16. When applied to the TCZ-monotherapy group, logistic regression's sensitivity significantly dropped from 83% to 69% (p = 0.03). In the current dataset, logistic regression performed equally well compared to machine-learning algorithms in the prediction of insufficient response to MTX. Models could be reduced to six features, which are more conducive for clinical implementation. Interestingly, the prediction model was specific to MTX (combination) therapy response.

Effect on Costs and Quality-adjusted Life-years of Treat-to-target Treatment Strategies Initiating Methotrexate, or Tocilizumab, or Their Combination in Early Rheumatoid Arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Our study aimed to evaluate the cost effectiveness of initiating tocilizumab (TCZ) ± methotrexate (MTX) versus initiating MTX as treat-to-target treatment strategies over 5 years in early disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD)-naïve rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: Data on resource use were collected with questionnaires at baseline, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months, and yearly thereafter, and were converted to costs using Dutch reference prices. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) were calculated using the EQ5D5L, with utility based on Dutch tariff or estimated by the Health Assessment Questionnaire. To account for missing cost data and QALY data and for sample uncertainty, first bootstraps (10,000 samples) were obtained. Second, single imputation using chained equations nested within these bootstrap samples was performed. An economic evaluation was performed for TCZ + MTX and TCZ, compared to MTX, as initial treatment in a treat-to-target strategy from a healthcare and societal perspective over 5 years. Several sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: Mean differences in QALY were small and not significant (TCZ + MTX vs MTX: 0.06, 95% CI -0.02 to 0.13; TCZ vs. MTX: -0.03, 95% CI -0.05 to 0.11). Limited savings in indirect nonhealthcare costs and productivity loss costs (for TCZ only) were observed, but these did not compensate for the higher medication costs. Sensitivity analyses did not materially change these findings, although lower-priced TCZ, or reserving TCZ as initial therapy for prognostically unfavorable RA patients, improved cost effectiveness considerably but did not individually lead to a strategy being cost effective. CONCLUSION: Based on our analyses, early initiation of TCZ + MTX is not cost effective compared to MTX initiation in a step-up treat-to-target treatment strategy over 5 years in early RA patients.

Validation of a Prognostic Multivariable Prediction Model for Insufficient Clinical Response to Methotrexate in Early Rheumatoid Arthritis and Its Clinical Application in Evidencio.

INTRODUCTION: Methotrexate (MTX) constitutes the first-line therapy in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), yet approximately 30% of the patients do not benefit from MTX. Recently, we reported a prognostic multivariable prediction model for insufficient clinical response to MTX at 3 months of treatment in the treatment in the Rotterdam Early Arthritis Cohort (tREACH), including baseline predictors: Disease activity score 28 (DAS28), Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ), erythrocyte folate, single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; ABCB1, ABCC3), smoking, and BMI. The purpose of the current study was (1) to externally validate the model and (2) to enhance the model's clinical applicability. METHODS: Erythrocyte folate and SNPs were assessed in 91 early disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD)-naïve RA patients starting MTX in the external validation cohort (U-Act-Early). Insufficient response (DAS28 > 3.2) was determined after 3 months and non-response after 6 months of therapy. The previously developed prediction model was considered successfully validated in the U-Act-Early (validation cohort) if the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was not significantly lower than in the tREACH (derivation cohort). RESULTS: The AUCs in U-Act-Early at three and 6 months were 0.75 (95% CI 0.64-0.85) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.60-0.82) respectively, similar to the tREACH. Baseline DAS28 > 5.1 and HAQ > 0.6 were the strongest predictors. The model was simplified by excluding the SNPs, while still classifying 73% correctly. Furthermore, interaction terms between BMI and HAQ and BMI and erythrocyte folate significantly improved the model increasing correct classification to 75%. Results were successfully implemented in Evidencio online platform assisting clinicians in shared decision-making to intensify treatment when appropriate. CONCLUSIONS: We successfully externally validated our recently reported prediction model for MTX non-response and enhanced its clinical application thus enabling its evaluation in a clinical trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The U-Act-Early is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov. number: NCT01034137. tREACH is registered retrospectively at ISRCTN registry, number: ISRCTN26791028 at 23 August 2007.

Effectiveness and safety over 3 years after the 2-year U-Act-Early trial of the strategies initiating tocilizumab and/or methotrexate.

OBJECTIVES: U-Act-Early was a 2-year, randomized placebo controlled, double-blind trial, in which DMARD-naïve early RA patients were treated to the target of sustained remission (SR). Two strategies initiating tocilizumab (TCZ), with and without methotrexate (MTX), were more effective than a strategy initiating MTX. The aim of the current study was to determine longer-term effectiveness in daily clinical practice. METHODS: At the end of U-Act-Early, patients were included in a 3-year post-trial follow-up (PTFU), in which treatment was according to standard care and data were collected every 3 months during the first year and every 6 months thereafter. Primary end point was disease activity score assessing 28 joints (DAS28) over time. Mixed effects models were used to compare effectiveness between initial strategy groups, correcting for relevant confounders. Between the groups as randomized, proportions of patients were tested for DMARD use, SR and radiographic progression of joint damage. RESULTS: Of patients starting U-Act-Early, 226/317 (71%) participated in the PTFU. Over the total 5 years, mean DAS28 was similar between groups (P > 0.20). During U-Act-Early, biologic DMARD use decreased in both TCZ initiation groups and increased in the MTX initiation group, but during follow-up this trend did not continue. SR was achieved at least once in 99% of patients. Of the 226 patients, only 30% had any radiographic progression over 5 years, without significant differences between the groups. CONCLUSION: Although in the short-term the strategies initiating TCZ yielded the most clinical benefit, in the longer-term differences in important clinical outcomes between the strategies disappeared, probably due to continuation of the treat-to-target principle.

Vitamin B12 Intake From Animal Foods, Biomarkers, and Health Aspects.

The EAT-Lancet commission recently suggested that transformation to healthy diets by 2050 will require a reduction of at least 50% in consumption of foods such as red meat and sugar, and a doubling in the global consumption of fruits, vegetables, nuts, and legumes. A diet rich in plant-based foods and with fewer animal source foods confers both improved health and environmental benefits. Notably, the risk of vitamin B12 deficiency increases when consuming a diet low in animal products. Humans are dependent on animal foods such as dairy products, meat, fish and eggs. Vitamin B12 deficiency is common worldwide, especially in populations with low consumption of animal foods because of low socioeconomic status, ethical reasons, or because of their lifestyle (i.e., vegans). According to the European Food Safety Authoroty, the recommended adequate intake of vitamin B12 is 4.0 µg/d for adults, and vitamin B12 requirements are higher during pregnancy and lactation. Infants and children from deficient mothers and elderly people are at risk for vitamin B12 deficiency. Diagnosis of vitamin B12 deficiency is hampered by low specificity of available biomarkers, and there is no consensus yet regarding the optimal definition of low vitamin B12 status. In general, a combination of at least two biomarkers is recommended. Therefore, this review presents an overview of vitamin B12 biochemistry and its biomarkers. We further summarize current recommendations of vitamin B12 intake, and evidence on the associations of vitamin B12 intake from different nutrient-dense animal foods with vitamin B12 status markers. Finally, potential consequences of low vitamin B12 status on different health outcomes for pregnant women, infants and elderly are presented.