ABSTRACT
Rodent-borne hanta- and arenaviruses are an emerging public health threat in Europe; however, their circulation in human populations is usually underestimated since most infections are asymptomatic. Compared to other European countries, Italy is considered 'low risk' for these viruses, yet in the Province of Trento, two pathogenic hantaviruses (Puumala and Dobrava-Belgrade virus) and one arenavirus (Lymphocytic Choriomeningitis Virus) are known to circulate in rodent reservoirs. In this paper, we performed a follow-up serological screening in humans to detect variation in the prevalence of these three viruses compared to previous analyses carried out in 2002. We also used a statistical model to link seropositivity to risk factors such as occupational exposure, cutting firewood, hunting, collecting mushrooms, having a garden and owning a woodshed, a dog or a companion rodent. We demonstrate a significant increase in the seroprevalence of all three target viruses between 2002 and 2015, but no risk factors that we considered were significantly correlated with this increase. We conclude that the general exposure of residents in the Alps to these viruses has probably increased during the last decade. These results provide an early warning to public health authorities, and we suggest more detailed diagnostic and clinical investigations on suspected cases.
Subject(s)
Antibodies, Viral/blood , Arenavirus/isolation & purification , Disease Vectors , Orthohantavirus/isolation & purification , Rodentia/virology , Zoonoses/epidemiology , Animals , Europe/epidemiology , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Risk Assessment , Seroepidemiologic StudiesSubject(s)
Occupational Diseases/prevention & control , Occupational Exposure/adverse effects , Vibration/adverse effects , European Union , Humans , Italy , Models, Theoretical , Occupational Diseases/diagnosis , Occupational Diseases/etiology , Occupational Diseases/rehabilitation , Occupational Diseases/therapy , Practice Guidelines as Topic , Raynaud Disease/diagnosis , Raynaud Disease/etiology , Risk Assessment , Risk Factors , Time FactorsABSTRACT
New human cases of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) have recently been recorded outside the recognised foci of this disease, i.e. in the province of Trento in northern Italy. In order to predict the highest risk areas for increased TBE virus activity, we have combined cross-sectional serological data, obtained from 459 domestic goats, with analysis of the autumnal cooling rate based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) data. A significant relationship between finding antibodies against the virus in serum (seroprevalence) in goats and the autumnal cooling rate was detected, indicating that the transmission intensity of the virus does not only vary spatially, but also in relation to climatic factors. Virus seroprevalence in goats was correlated with the occurrence of TBE in humans and also with the average number of forestry workers' tick bites, demonstrating that serological screening of domestic animals, combined with an analysis of the autumnal cooling rate, can be used as early-warning predictors of TBE risk in humans.
