Generation of post-meal insulin correction boluses in type 1 diabetes simulation models for in-silico clinical trials: More realistic scenarios obtained using a decision tree approach.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: In type 1 diabetes (T1D) research, in-silico clinical trials (ISCTs) notably facilitate the design/testing of new therapies. Published simulation tools embed mathematical models of blood glucose (BG) and insulin dynamics, continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensors, and insulin treatments, but lack a realistic description of some aspects of patient lifestyle impacting on glucose control. Specifically, to effectively simulate insulin correction boluses, required to treat post-meal hyperglycemia (BG > 180 mg/dL), the timing of the bolus may be influenced by subjects' behavioral attitudes. In this work, we develop an easily interpretable model of the variability of correction bolus timing observed in real data, and embed it into a popular simulation tool for ISCTs. METHODS: Using data collected in 196 adults with T1D monitored in free-living conditions, we trained a decision tree (DT) model to classify whether a correction bolus is injected in a future time window, based on predictors collected back in time, related to CGM data, previous insulin boluses and subject's characteristics. The performance was compared to that of a logistic regression classifier with LASSO regularization (LC), trained on the same dataset. After validation, the DT was embedded within a popular T1D simulation tool and an ISCT was performed to compare the simulated correction boluses against those observed in a subset of data not used for model training. RESULTS: The DT provided better classification performance (accuracy: 0.792, sensitivity: 0.430, specificity: 0.878, precision: 0.455) than the LC and presented good interpretability. The most predictive features were related to CGM (and its temporal variations), time since the last insulin bolus, and time of the day. The correction boluses simulated by the DT, after implementation in the simulation tool, showed a good agreement with real-world data. CONCLUSIONS: The DT developed in this work represents a simple set of rules to mimic the same timing of correction boluses observed on real data. The inclusion of the model in simulation tools allows investigators to perform ISCTs that more realistically represent the patient behavior in taking correction boluses and the post-prandial BG response. In the future, more complex models can be investigated.

Implantable and transcutaneous continuous glucose monitoring system: a randomized cross over trial comparing accuracy, efficacy and acceptance.

AIM: To compare accuracy, efficacy and acceptance of implantable and transcutaneous continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems. METHODS: In a randomized crossover trial we compared 12 weeks with Eversense implantable sensor (EVS) and 12 weeks with Dexcom G5 transcutaneous sensor (DG5) in terms of accuracy, evaluated as Mean Absolute Relative Difference (MARD) vs capillary glucose (SMBG), time of CGM use, adverse events, efficacy (as HbA1c, time in range, time above and below range) and psychological outcomes evaluated with Diabetes Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire (DTSQ), Glucose Monitoring Satisfaction Survey (GMSS), Hypoglycemia Fear Survey (HFS2), Diabetes Distress Scale (DDS). RESULTS: 16 subjects (13 males, 48.8 ± 10.1 years, HbA1c 55.8 ± 7.9 mmol/mol, mean ± SD) completed the study. DG5 was used more than EVS [percentage of use 95.7 ± 3.6% vs 93.5 ± 4.3% (p = 0.02)]. MARD was better with EVS (12.2 ± 11.5% vs. 13.1 ± 14.7%, p< 0.001). No differences were found in HbA1c. While using EVS time spent in range increased and time spent in hyperglycemia decreased, but these data were not confirmed by analysis of retrofitted data based on SMBG values. EVS reduced perceived distress, without significant changes in other psychological outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: CGM features may affect glycemic control and device acceptance.

A Mathematical Formula to Determine the Minimum Continuous Glucose Monitoring Duration to Assess Time-in-ranges: Sensitivity Analysis Over the Parameters.

In diabetes management, the fraction of time spent with glucose concentration within the physiological range of [70-180] mg/dL, namely time in range (TIR) is often computed by clinicians to assess glycemic control using a continuous glucose monitoring sensor. However, a sufficiently long monitoring period is required to reliably estimate this index. A mathematical equation derived by our group provides the minimum trial duration granting a desired uncertainty around the estimated TIR. The equation involves two parameters, pr and α, related to the population under analysis, which should be set based on the clinician's experience. In this work, we evaluated the sensitivity of the formula to the parameters.Considering two independent datasets, we predicted the uncertainty of TIR estimate for a population, using the parameters of the formula estimated for a different population. We also stressed the robustness of the formula by testing wider ranges of parameters, thus assessing the impact of large errors in the parameters' estimates.Plausible errors on the α estimate impact very slightly on the prediction (relative discrepancy < 5%), thus we suggest using a fixed value for α independently on the population being analyzed. Instead, pr should be adjusted to the TIR expected in the population, considering that errors around 20% result in a relative discrepancy of ~10%.In conclusion, the proposed formula is sufficiently robust to parameters setting and can be used by investigators to determine a suitable duration of the study.

Bayesian Model Selection Framework to Improve Calibration of Continuous Glucose Monitoring Sensors for Diabetes Management.

Minimally-invasive continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensors have revolutionized perspectives in the treatment of type 1 diabetes (T1D). Their accuracy relies on an internal calibration function that transforms the raw, physically measured, electrical data into blood glucose concentration values. Usually, a unique, pre-determined, calibration functional is adopted, with parameters periodically updated in individual patients by using "gold standard" references suitably collected by finger prick devices. However, retrospective analysis of CGM data suggests that variability of sensor-subject characteristics is often inefficiently coped with. In the present study, we propose a conceptual Bayesian model- selection framework aimed at guaranteeing wide margins of flexibility for both the determination of the most appropriate calibration functional and the numerical values of its unknown parameters. The calibration model is determined among a finite specified set of candidates, each one depending on a set of unknown model parameters, for which a priori statistical expectations are available. Model selection is based on predictive distributions carrying out asymptotic calculations through Monte Carlo integration methods. Performance of the proposed approach is assessed on synthetic data generated by a well-established T1D simulation model.

Accuracy of devices for self-monitoring of blood glucose: A stochastic error model.

Self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) devices are portable systems that allow measuring glucose concentration in a small drop of blood obtained via finger-prick. SMBG measurements are key in type 1 diabetes (T1D) management, e.g. for tuning insulin dosing. A reliable model of SMBG accuracy would be important in several applications, e.g. in in silico design and optimization of insulin therapy. In the literature, the most used model to describe SMBG error is the Gaussian distribution, which however is simplistic to properly account for the observed variability. Here, a methodology to derive a stochastic model of SMBG accuracy is presented. The method consists in dividing the glucose range into zones in which absolute/relative error presents constant standard deviation (SD) and, then, fitting by maximum-likelihood a skew-normal distribution model to absolute/relative error distribution in each zone. The method was tested on a database of SMBG measurements collected by the One Touch Ultra 2 (Lifescan Inc., Milpitas, CA). In particular, two zones were identified: zone 1 (BG≤75 mg/dl) with constant-SD absolute error and zone 2 (BG>75mg/dl) with constant-SD relative error. Mean and SD of the identified skew-normal distributions are, respectively, 2.03 and 6.51 in zone 1, 4.78% and 10.09% in zone 2. Visual predictive check validation showed that the derived two-zone model accurately reproduces SMBG measurement error distribution, performing significantly better than the single-zone Gaussian model used previously in the literature. This stochastic model allows a more realistic SMBG scenario for in silico design and optimization of T1D insulin therapy.

Patient decision-making of CGM sensor driven insulin therapies in type 1 diabetes: In silico assessment.

In type 1 diabetes (T1D) therapy, continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensors, which provide glucose concentration in the subcutis every 1-5 min for 7 consecutive days, should allow in principle a more efficient insulin dosing than that based on the conventional 3-4 self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) measurements per day. However, CGM, at variance with SMBG, is still not approved for insulin dosing in T1D management because regulatory agencies, e.g. FDA, are looking for more factual evidence on its safety. An in silico assessment of SMBG- vs CGM-driven insulin therapy can be a first step. Here we present a simulation model of T1D patient decision-making obtained by interconnecting models of glucose-insulin dynamics, SMBG and CGM measurement errors, carbohydrates-counting errors, insulin boluses time variability and forgetfulness, and subcutaneous insulin pump delivery. Inter- and intra- patient variability of model parameters are considered. The T1D patient decision-making model allows to run realistic multi-day simulations scenarios in a population of virtual subjects. We present the first results of simulations run in 20 virtual subjects over a 7-day period, which demonstrates that additional information brought by CGM (trend and hypo/hyperglycemic warnings) with respect to SMBG produces a statistically significant increment (about of 9%) of time spent by the patient in the euglycemic range (70-180 mg/dl).