Estimated number of eligible patients for mechanical thrombectomy based on NIHSS and population-based Brest stroke registry.

BACKGROUND: Since 2015, mechanical thrombectomy (MT) is indicated as a treatment for patients with large vessel occlusion (LVO) at the acute phase of ischemic stroke. However, the number of stroke patients eligible for MT is poorly known. OBJECTIVE: The objective of our study was to estimate the number of patients eligible for thrombectomy within the first 24hours of an ischemic stroke, based on the clinical National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). METHOD: Our study concerned all ischemic strokes which occurred between January 2013 and December 2016 recorded in the population-based Brest Stroke Registry (BSR). Based on positive predictive value and negative predictive value from articles evaluating the performance of a defined NIHSS threshold to identify LVO, we first estimated the frequency of patients with LVO and then the frequency of patients eligible for MT depending on pre-stroke modified Rankin score (mRS). Our results were extrapolated to regions of metropolitan France. Two scenarios were considered: one called "stringent criteria" with mRS ≤1 and one called "real-life" criteria with mRS ≤2. RESULT: We analyzed data from 2,025 ischemic strokes with symptom onset ≤24hours. No statistical difference between patient characteristics according to the time of hospital admission (≤6H vs. 6-24H) was observed. Based on NIHSS scores, between 23.90% and 44.20% of ischemic strokes admitted within the first six hours had LVO clinical characteristics. Among them, 14.53% to 26.87% met the ``stringent eligibility'' criteria for MT and 16.9 to 31.25% for ``real-life'' criteria. Eligible patients represented 6.32% to 11.70% of all ischemic strokes, irrespective of admission time. In France, 75 to 162 persons per million inhabitants per year were eligible for endovascular therapy, depending on including criteria. Based on activity levels recorded by the French Neuroradiology Society (SFNR) in 2018, the estimated needed increase in MT showed a heterogeneous pattern region-by-region, with the greatest need in Brittany, Pays de la Loire, and Corsica. CONCLUSION: Based on NIHSS, our study provides coherent information concerning the estimated number of MT procedures to be performed in France: 4,877 to 10,494 ischemic strokes would be eligible each year in metropolitan France compared to the 6,596 thrombectomy procedures actually performed in 2018. Depending on the region, an estimated 10-20% to 90-100% increase in MT activity would be necessary to meet patient needs. These data suggest that there is still room for improvement in thrombectomy activity, particularly in certain regions of France, to allow equal access to MT to the entire French population.

Cryptogenic mechanism in ischaemic stroke patients is a predictor of 5-year survival: A population-based study.

INTRODUCTION: The present study sought to identify factors affecting mortality beyond 28 days in ischaemic stroke patients with whatever ischaemic mechanism. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A prospective population-based registry was set up in Brest County, Brittany, France. Demographic data, clinical presentation, vascular risk factors and mortality were collected from January 2008 to December 2012. At "home without help" was used as a surrogate marker for low Rankin (0-1) at discharge from the hospital. IS was classified on the TOAST classification. Overall mortality was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate analysis of mortality beyond 28 days was implemented, using a Cox model, on significant risk factors identified on univariate analysis. RESULTS: About 3024 IS cases were followed up beyond 28 days. Overall mortality beyond 28 days was 38.49% at 60 months. On multivariate analysis, age (10 years: HR = 1.84; [1.66-2.02]), coronary artery disease (HR = 1.28; [1.05-1.56]), cardiac arrhythmia (HR = 1.36; [1.11-1.67]), peripheral artery disease (HR = 1.66 [1.29-2.13]) and incomplete assessment (HR = 1.39; [1.12-1.74]) were associated with higher mortality risk, whereas female gender (HR = 0.80; [0.68-0.94]), high Glasgow Coma Scale score (GCS > 12) (HR = 0.58; [0.45-0.76]), lacunar syndrome (HR = 0.82; [0.68-0.99], being 'at home without help' (HR = 0.50; [0.41-0.59]) and negative assessment (HR = 0.75; [0.58-0.97], compared to cardioembolism) were associated with better survival probability. DISCUSSION: Initial clinical status, prior cardiovascular diseases and age was associated with more risk of death: an increment of 10 years almost doubled mortality. Women had more survival probability than men, controlling for age. Ischaemic stroke mechanisms were predictors of late 5-year mortality. CONCLUSION: Patients with negative assessment, i.e. representing truly cryptogenic ischaemic stroke, had the best survival probability probably due to fewer atherosclerotic markers.

High completeness of the brest stroke registry evidenced by analysis of sources and capture-recapture method.

BACKGROUND: Population-based stroke registries are necessary to evaluate the precise burden of stroke. The methodology used in the Brest Stroke Registry and an estimation of its completeness are described. METHODS: 'Hot pursuit' as well as 'cold pursuit' were used, and five sources of identification were included: emergency wards, brain imaging, practitioners, death certificates and hospital-based electronic research. Ascertainment for each case was certified by a neurologist. Inclusion criteria were: (1) age >15 years; (2) a stroke defined by WHO criteria or all neurological deficits lasting at least 1 h. Completeness was estimated using capture-recapture method. RESULTS: For 2008, 2009 and 2010, 851, 898, 823 patients were collected, respectively. The number of sources of identification per patient was as follows: one source: 30.8, 24.1 and 18.7%; two sources: 54.5, 42.9 and 31.0%; three sources: 13.4, 30.1 and 46%; four sources: 1.3, 3.0 and 3.8%. Capture-recapture analysis showed data completeness over 90%. Standardized cumulative first-ever stroke incidence using a world standard population was 87 in 2008, 87 in 2009 and 84 in 2010. CONCLUSIONS: Case ascertainment by a neurologist, numerous sources, as well as 'hot' and 'cold' pursuit can provide a reliably large data set suitable for further epidemiological studies.