Determination of prognostic markers for COVID-19 disease severity using routine blood tests and machine learning.

The need for the identification of risk factors associated to COVID-19 disease severity remains urgent. Patients' care and resource allocation can be potentially different and are defined based on the current classification of disease severity. This classification is based on the analysis of clinical parameters and routine blood tests, which are not standardized across the globe. Some laboratory test alterations have been associated to COVID-19 severity, although these data are conflicting partly due to the different methodologies used across different studies. This study aimed to construct and validate a disease severity prediction model using machine learning (ML). Seventy-two patients admitted to a Brazilian hospital and diagnosed with COVID-19 through RT-PCR and/or ELISA, and with varying degrees of disease severity, were included in the study. Their electronic medical records and the results from daily blood tests were used to develop a ML model to predict disease severity. Using the above data set, a combination of five laboratorial biomarkers was identified as accurate predictors of COVID-19 severe disease with a ROC-AUC of 0.80 ​±â€‹ 0.13. Those biomarkers included prothrombin activity, ferritin, serum iron, ATTP and monocytes. The application of the devised ML model may help rationalize clinical decision and care.

Seroprevalence of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika at the epicenter of the congenital microcephaly epidemic in Northeast Brazil: A population-based survey.

BACKGROUND: The four Dengue viruses (DENV) serotypes were re-introduced in Brazil's Northeast region in a couple of decades, between 1980's and 2010's, where the DENV1 was the first detected serotype and DENV4 the latest. Zika (ZIKV) and Chikungunya (CHIKV) viruses were introduced in Recife around 2014 and led to large outbreaks in 2015 and 2016, respectively. However, the true extent of the ZIKV and CHIKV outbreaks, as well as the risk factors associated with exposure to these viruses remain vague. METHODS: We conducted a stratified multistage household serosurvey among residents aged between 5 and 65 years in the city of Recife, Northeast Brazil, from August 2018 to February 2019. The city neighborhoods were stratified and divided into high, intermediate, and low socioeconomic strata (SES). Previous ZIKV, DENV and CHIKV infections were detected by IgG-based enzyme linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). Recent ZIKV and CHIKV infections were assessed through IgG3 and IgM ELISA, respectively. Design-adjusted seroprevalence were estimated by age group, sex, and SES. The ZIKV seroprevalence was adjusted to account for the cross-reactivity with dengue. Individual and household-related risk factors were analyzed through regression models to calculate the force of infection. Odds Ratio (OR) were estimated as measure of effect. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 2,070 residents' samples were collected and analyzed. The force of viral infection for high SES were lower as compared to low and intermediate SES. DENV seroprevalence was 88.7% (CI95%:87.0-90.4), and ranged from 81.2% (CI95%:76.9-85.6) in the high SES to 90.7% (CI95%:88.3-93.2) in the low SES. The overall adjusted ZIKV seroprevalence was 34.6% (CI95%:20.0-50.9), and ranged from 47.4% (CI95%:31.8-61.5) in the low SES to 23.4% (CI95%:12.2-33.8) in the high SES. The overall CHIKV seroprevalence was 35.7% (CI95%:32.6-38.9), and ranged from 38.6% (CI95%:33.6-43.6) in the low SES to 22.3% (CI95%:15.8-28.8) in the high SES. Surprisingly, ZIKV seroprevalence rapidly increased with age in the low and intermediate SES, while exhibited only a small increase with age in high SES. CHIKV seroprevalence according to age was stable in all SES. The prevalence of serological markers of ZIKV and CHIKV recent infections were 1.5% (CI95%:0.1-3.7) and 3.5% (CI95%:2.7-4.2), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirmed continued DENV transmission and intense ZIKV and CHIKV transmission during the 2015/2016 epidemics followed by ongoing low-level transmission. The study also highlights that a significant proportion of the population is still susceptible to be infected by ZIKV and CHIKV. The reasons underlying a ceasing of the ZIKV epidemic in 2017/18 and the impact of antibody decay in susceptibility to future DENV and ZIKV infections may be related to the interplay between disease transmission mechanism and actual exposure in the different SES.

Identification of a Zika NS2B epitope as a biomarker for severe clinical phenotypes.

The identification of specific biomarkers for Zika infection and its clinical complications is fundamental to mitigate the infection spread, which has been associated with a broad range of neurological sequelae. We present the characterization of antibody responses in serum samples from individuals infected with Zika, presenting non-severe (classical) and severe (neurological disease) phenotypes, with high-density peptide arrays comprising the Zika NS1 and NS2B proteins. The data pinpoints one strongly IgG-targeted NS2B epitope in non-severe infections, which is absent in Zika patients, where infection progressed to the severe phenotype. This differential IgG profile between the studied groups was confirmed by multivariate data analysis. Molecular dynamics simulations and circular dichroism have shown that the peptide in solution presents itself in a sub-optimal conformation for antibody recognition, which led us to computationally engineer an artificial protein able to stabilize the NS2B epitope structure. The engineered protein was used to interrogate paired samples from mothers and their babies presenting Zika-associated microcephaly and confirmed the absence of NS2B IgG response in those samples. These findings suggest that the assessment of antibody responses to the herein identified NS2B epitope is a strong candidate biomarker for the diagnosis and prognosis of Zika-associated neurological disease.

Are Zika virus cross-reactive antibodies against aquaporin-4 associated to Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorder?

Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has been associated with the development of Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorder (NMOSD). ZIKV-induced antibodies that putatively cross-react to aquaporin-4 (AQP4) protein are suggested to cause inflammation of the optic nerve. A region of similarity between AQP4 and the ZIKV NS2B protein was identified. Our data showed that ZIKV-associated NMOSD patients develop anti-AQP4 antibodies, but not anti-ZIKV NS2B antibodies, revealing that cross-reacting antibodies are not the underlying cause of this phenotype. ZIKV infection in mice showed persistent viral replication in the eye tissue, suggesting that NMOSD symptoms are consequence of viral infection of the optic nerve cells.

Study protocol for the multicentre cohorts of Zika virus infection in pregnant women, infants, and acute clinical cases in Latin America and the Caribbean: the ZIKAlliance consortium.

BACKGROUND: The European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 (H2020)-funded ZIKAlliance Consortium designed a multicentre study including pregnant women (PW), children (CH) and natural history (NH) cohorts. Clinical sites were selected over a wide geographic range within Latin America and the Caribbean, taking into account the dynamic course of the ZIKV epidemic. METHODS: Recruitment to the PW cohort will take place in antenatal care clinics. PW will be enrolled regardless of symptoms and followed over the course of pregnancy, approximately every 4 weeks. PW will be revisited at delivery (or after miscarriage/abortion) to assess birth outcomes, including microcephaly and other congenital abnormalities according to the evolving definition of congenital Zika syndrome (CZS). After birth, children will be followed for 2 years in the CH cohort. Follow-up visits are scheduled at ages 1-3, 4-6, 12, and 24 months to assess neurocognitive and developmental milestones. In addition, a NH cohort for the characterization of symptomatic rash/fever illness was designed, including follow-up to capture persisting health problems. Blood, urine, and other biological materials will be collected, and tested for ZIKV and other relevant arboviral diseases (dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever) using RT-PCR or serological methods. A virtual, decentralized biobank will be created. Reciprocal clinical monitoring has been established between partner sites. Substudies of ZIKV seroprevalence, transmission clustering, disabilities and health economics, viral kinetics, the potential role of antibody enhancement, and co-infections will be linked to the cohort studies. DISCUSSION: Results of these large cohort studies will provide better risk estimates for birth defects and other developmental abnormalities associated with ZIKV infection including possible co-factors for the variability of risk estimates between other countries and regions. Additional outcomes include incidence and transmission estimates of ZIKV during and after pregnancy, characterization of short and long-term clinical course following infection and viral kinetics of ZIKV. STUDY REGISTRATIONS: clinicaltrials.gov NCT03188731 (PW cohort), June 15, 2017; clinicaltrials.gov NCT03393286 (CH cohort), January 8, 2018; clinicaltrials.gov NCT03204409 (NH cohort), July 2, 2017.

The influence of biotinylation on the ability of a computer designed protein to detect B-cells producing anti-HIV-1 2F5 antibodies.

Antibodies against the HIV-1 2F5 epitope are known as one of the most powerful and broadly protective anti-HIV antibodies. Therefore, vaccine strategies that include the 2F5 epitope in their formulation require a robust method to detect specific anti-2F5 antibody production by B cells. Towards this goal, we have biotinylated a previously reported computer-designed protein carrying the HIV-1 2F5 epitope aiming the further development of a platform to detect human B-cells expressing anti-2F5 antibodies through flow cytometry. Biophysical and immunological properties of our devised protein were characterized by computer simulation and experimental methods. Biotinylation did not affect folding and improved protein stability and solubility. The biotinylated protein exhibited similar binding affinity trends compared to its unbiotinylated counterpart and was recognized by anti-HIV-1 2F5 antibodies expressed on the surface of patient-derived peripheral blood mononuclear cells. Moreover, we present a high affinity marker for the identification of epitope-specific B cells that can be used to measure the efficacy of vaccine strategies based on the HIV-1 envelope protein.

External Quality Assessment for Zika Virus Molecular Diagnostic Testing, Brazil.

We conducted an external quality assessment of Zika virus molecular diagnostic tests in Brazil using a new Zika virus standard. Of 15 laboratories, 73% showed limited sensitivity and specificity. Viral load estimates varied significantly. Continuous quality assurance is needed to adequately estimate risk for Zika virus-associated disease and determine patient care.

Amino acid polymorphisms in the fibronectin-binding repeats of fibronectin-binding protein A affect bond strength and fibronectin conformation.

The Staphylococcus aureus cell surface contains cell wall-anchored proteins such as fibronectin-binding protein A (FnBPA) that bind to host ligands (e.g. fibronectin; Fn) present in the extracellular matrix of tissue or coatings on cardiac implants. Recent clinical studies have found a correlation between cardiovascular infections caused by S. aureus and nonsynonymous SNPs in FnBPA. Atomic force microscopy (AFM), surface plasmon resonance (SPR), and molecular simulations were used to investigate interactions between Fn and each of eight 20-mer peptide variants containing amino acids Ala, Asn, Gln, His, Ile, and Lys at positions equivalent to 782 and/or 786 in Fn-binding repeat-9 of FnBPA. Experimentally measured bond lifetimes (1/koff) and dissociation constants (Kd = koff/kon), determined by mechanically dissociating the Fn·peptide complex at loading rates relevant to the cardiovascular system, varied from the lowest-affinity H782A/K786A peptide (0.011 s, 747 µm) to the highest-affinity H782Q/K786N peptide (0.192 s, 15.7 µm). These atomic force microscopy results tracked remarkably well to metadynamics simulations in which peptide detachment was defined solely by the free-energy landscape. Simulations and SPR experiments suggested that an Fn conformational change may enhance the stability of the binding complex for peptides with K786I or H782Q/K786I (Kdapp = 0.2-0.5 µm, as determined by SPR) compared with the lowest-affinity double-alanine peptide (Kdapp = 3.8 µm). Together, these findings demonstrate that amino acid substitutions in Fn-binding repeat-9 can significantly affect bond strength and influence the conformation of Fn upon binding. They provide a mechanistic explanation for the observation of nonsynonymous SNPs in fnbA among clinical isolates of S. aureus that cause endovascular infections.

Mapping Putative B-Cell Zika Virus NS1 Epitopes Provides Molecular Basis for Anti-NS1 Antibody Discrimination between Zika and Dengue Viruses.

B-cell epitope sequences from Zika virus (ZIKV) NS1 protein have been identified using epitope prediction tools. Mapping these sequences onto the NS1 surface reveals two major conformational epitopes and a single linear one. Despite an overall average sequence identity of ca. 55% between the NS1 from ZIKV and the four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes, epitope sequences were found to be highly conserved. Nevertheless, nonconserved epitope-flanking residues are responsible for a dramatically divergent electrostatic surface potential on the epitope regions of ZIKV and DENV2 serotypes. These findings suggest that strategies for differential diagnostics on the basis of short linear NS1 sequences are likely to fail due to immunological cross-reactions. Overall, results provide the molecular basis of differential discrimination between Zika and DENVs by NS1 monoclonal antibodies.

Assessing protein conformational sampling and structural stability via de novo design and molecular dynamics simulations.

Molecular dynamics and de novo techniques, associated to quality parameter sets, have excelled at determining the structure of small proteins with high accuracy. To achieve a detailed description of protein conformations, these methods must critically assess the thermodynamic features of the molecular ensembles. Here, a comparison of the conformational ensemble generated by molecular dynamics and de novo techniques were carried out for six Top7-based proteins carrying gp41 HIV-1 epitopes. The native Top7, a highly stable computationally designed protein, was used as benchmark. Structural stability, flexibility, and secondary structure content were assessed. The consistency of the latter was compared to experimental circular dichroism spectra for all proteins. While both methods are capable to identify the stable from unstable chimeric proteins, the sampled conformational space and flexibility differ significantly in both methods. Molecular dynamics simulations seem to better describe secondary structure content and identify regions responsible for conformational instability. The de novo method, as implemented in Rosetta-a prime tool for protein design, overestimates secondary structure content. On the other hand, its empirical energy function is capable to predict the threshold for protein stability.

Membrane and envelope virus proteins co-expressed as lysosome associated membrane protein (LAMP) fused antigens: a potential tool to develop DNA vaccines against flaviviruses

Vaccination is the most practical and cost-effective strategy to prevent the majority of the flavivirus infection to which there is an available vaccine. However, vaccines based on attenuated virus can potentially promote collateral side effects and even rare fatal reactions. Given this scenario, the developent of alternative vaccination strategies such as DNA-based vaccines encoding specific flavivirus sequences are being considered. Endogenous cytoplasmic antigens, characteristically plasmid DNA-vaccine encoded, are mainly presented to the immune system through Major Histocompatibility Complex class I - MHC I molecules. The MHC I presentation via is mostly associated with a cellular cytotoxic response and often do not elicit a satisfactory humoral response. One of the main strategies to target DNA-encoded antigens to the MHC II compartment is expressing the antigen within the Lysosome-Associated Membrane Protein (LAMP). The flavivirus envelope protein is recognized as the major virus surface protein and the main target for neutralizing antibodies. Different groups have demonstrated that co-expression of flavivirus membrane and envelope proteins in mammalian cells, fused with the carboxyl-terminal of LAMP, is able to induce satisfactory levels of neutralizing antibodies. Here we reviewed the use of the envelope flavivirus protein co-expression strategy as LAMP chimeras with the aim of developing DNA vaccines for dengue, West Nile and yellow fever viruses.

A vacinação é a estratégia mais prática e o melhor custo-benefício para prevenir a maioria das infecções dos flavivirus, para os quais existe vacina disponível. Entretanto, as vacinas baseadas em vírus atenuados podem potencialmente promover efeitos colaterais e, mais raramente, reações fatais. Diante deste cenário, o desenvolvimento de estratégias alternativas de vacinação, como vacinas baseadas em DNA codificando seqüências específicas dos flavivirus, está sendo considerado. Antí-genos citoplasmáticos endógenos, caracteristicamente codificados por vacinas de DNA plasmidial, são majoritariamente apresentados ao sistema imune através de moléculas do Complexo Maior de Histocompatibilidade de classe I - MHC I. A via de apresentação MHC I é mais associada à resposta celular citotóxica e, frequentemente, não elicita uma resposta humoral satisfatória. Uma das principais estratégias para direcionar antígenos codificados pelas vacinas de DNA para o compartimento MHC II é expressar estes antígenos dentro da Proteína de Associação à Membrana Lisossomal (LAMP). A proteína do envelope dos flavivirus é reconhecidamente a principal proteína de superfície viral e o principal alvo para anticorpos neutralizantes. Diferentes grupos têm demonstrado que a co-expressão das proteínas de membrana e do envelope dos flavivirus em células de mamíferos, fusionada com a porção carboxi-terminal de LAMP, é capaz de induzir níveis satisfatórios de anticorpos neutralizantes. Neste trabalho revisamos a estratégia de co-expressão da proteína do envelope dos flavivírus, como quimeras de LAMP, com o objetivo de desenvolver vacinas de DNA contra a febre do Oeste do Nilo, dengue e febre amarela.

Membrane and envelope virus proteins co-expressed as lysosome associated membrane protein (LAMP) fused antigens: a potential tool to develop DNA vaccines against flaviviruses.

Vaccination is the most practical and cost-effective strategy to prevent the majority of the flavivirus infection to which there is an available vaccine. However, vaccines based on attenuated virus can potentially promote collateral side effects and even rare fatal reactions. Given this scenario, the development of alternative vaccination strategies such as DNA-based vaccines encoding specific flavivirus sequences are being considered. Endogenous cytoplasmic antigens, characteristically plasmid DNA-vaccine encoded, are mainly presented to the immune system through Major Histocompatibility Complex class I - MHC I molecules. The MHC I presentation via is mostly associated with a cellular cytotoxic response and often do not elicit a satisfactory humoral response. One of the main strategies to target DNA-encoded antigens to the MHC II compartment is expressing the antigen within the Lysosome-Associated Membrane Protein (LAMP). The flavivirus envelope protein is recognized as the major virus surface protein and the main target for neutralizing antibodies. Different groups have demonstrated that co-expression of flavivirus membrane and envelope proteins in mammalian cells, fused with the carboxyl-terminal of LAMP, is able to induce satisfactory levels of neutralizing antibodies. Here we reviewed the use of the envelope flavivirus protein co-expression strategy as LAMP chimeras with the aim of developing DNA vaccines for dengue, West Nile and yellow fever viruses.