Fire suppression and land-use strategies drive future dynamics of an invasive plant in a fire-prone mountain area under climate change.

Woody invasive alien species can have profound impacts on ecosystem processes and functions, including fire regulation, which can significantly affect landscape resilience. Acacia dealbata, a widespread invasive alien plant in the Iberian Peninsula, holds well-known fire-adaptation traits (e.g., massive soil seed banks and heat-stimulated seed germination). In this study, we assess to what extent fire suppression and land-use strategies could affect the potential distribution of A. dealbata in a fire-prone transboundary protected mountain area of Portugal and Spain, using Habitat Suitability Models. Specifically, we predicted changes in habitat suitability for A. dealbata between years 2010 and 2050. We explored the potential impacts of two land-use strategies ('Business-as-usual' or 'High Nature Value farmlands') combined with three levels of fire suppression effectiveness using the biomod2 package in R. We also considered the potential effects of two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our modeling approach demonstrated a strong capacity to predict habitat suitability using either climate or land-cover information alone (AUC climate = 0.947; AUC LC = 0.957). According to climate-based models, A. dealbata thrives under conditions characterized by higher precipitation seasonality, higher precipitation in the warmest month, and higher minimum temperature in the coldest month. Regarding land cover, A. dealbata thrives mainly in landscapes dominated by urban areas and evergreen forest plantations. Our models forecasted that habitat suitability by 2050 could either increase or decrease depending on the specific combinations of fire suppression, land-use, and climate scenarios. Thus, a combination of business-as-usual and fire-exclusion strategies would enhance habitat suitability for the species. Conversely, management promoting High Nature Value farmlands would decrease the available suitable habitat, particularly under low fire suppression efforts. These findings suggest that promoting sustainable farming activities could impede the spread of A. dealbata by reducing habitat availability, while strategies aiming at fire-exclusion could facilitate its expansion, likely by enabling establishment and large seed production. This study highlights the complex interplay between fire-prone invasive species, fire and land-use strategies, and climate change; and thus the need to consider the interactions between land-use and fire management to promote invasive species control and landscape resilience.

On the development of a regional climate change adaptation plan: Integrating model-assisted projections and stakeholders' perceptions.

Climate change is expected to have strong social-ecological implications, with global but especially regional and local challenges. To assess the climatic vulnerability of a given territory, it is necessary to evaluate its exposure to climate change and its adaptive capacity. This study describes the development of an Action Plan for Adapting to Climate Change in the Tâmega and Sousa Region, a mountainous inter-municipal community in the North of Portugal. The goals were to identify the main impacts of climate change on water resources, agriculture, forests, biodiversity, and socioeconomic sectors, as well as to develop a plan, merging local and scientific knowledge through a transdisciplinary lens. This study describes an approach that combines modelling methods, applied in the different sectors, and participatory methods, based on the analysis of the perceptions of local actors. Results indicate that the target region will experience a generalized increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation, which will negatively impact all studied social-ecological dimensions. Overall, local business and institutional agents perceive the primary and tourism sectors as the most vulnerable in the region. The described framework demonstrates the engagement process between relevant scientific experts and local practitioners, as well as how it is critical to understand the impacts of climate change and to support the co-design of an adaptation plan, which in turn can guide political and economic decision-making towards effective implementation of the plan. In addition, the difficulties and challenges encountered during this process are discussed to support future plans and strategies for local adaptation.

A dynamic model-based framework to test the effectiveness of biocontrol targeting a new plant invader- the case of Alternanthera philoxeroides in the Iberian Peninsula.

Biological invasions are one of the major threats to biodiversity at the global scale, causing numerous environmental impacts and having high direct and indirect costs associated with their management, control and eradication. In this work, we present a system-dynamic modelling approach for the biocontrol of the invasive plant species Alternanthera philoxeroides using its natural predator, Agasicles hygrophila, as a biocontrol agent. We have simulated different scenarios in the Finisterre region (Spain), where a single population of the invasive plant has been recently described. To assess the effectiveness of A. hygrophila as a biocontrol agent in the region, a population dynamic model was developed in order to include the life-cycle of both species, as well as the interaction among them. The results of the simulations indicate that the control of this new invasive plant is possible, as long as several releases of the biocontrol agent are made over time. The proposed model can support the control or even the eradication of the population of A. philoxeroides with a minimal impact on the environment. Additionally, the proposed framework also represents a versatile dynamic tool, adjustable to different local management specificities (objectives and parameters) and capable of responding under different contexts. Hence, this approach can be used to guide eradication efforts of new invasive species, to improve the applicability of early management measures as biocontrol, and to support decision-making by testing several alternative management scenarios.

Global effects of non-native tree species on multiple ecosystem services.

Non-native tree (NNT) species have been transported worldwide to create or enhance services that are fundamental for human well-being, such as timber provision, erosion control or ornamental value; yet NNTs can also produce undesired effects, such as fire proneness or pollen allergenicity. Despite the variety of effects that NNTs have on multiple ecosystem services, a global quantitative assessment of their costs and benefits is still lacking. Such information is critical for decision-making, management and sustainable exploitation of NNTs. We present here a global assessment of NNT effects on the three main categories of ecosystem services, including regulating (RES), provisioning (PES) and cultural services (CES), and on an ecosystem disservice (EDS), i.e. pollen allergenicity. By searching the scientific literature, country forestry reports, and social media, we compiled a global data set of 1683 case studies from over 125 NNT species, covering 44 countries, all continents but Antarctica, and seven biomes. Using different meta-analysis techniques, we found that, while NNTs increase most RES (e.g. climate regulation, soil erosion control, fertility and formation), they decrease PES (e.g. NNTs contribute less than native trees to global timber provision). Also, they have different effects on CES (e.g. increase aesthetic values but decrease scientific interest), and no effect on the EDS considered. NNT effects on each ecosystem (dis)service showed a strong context dependency, varying across NNT types, biomes and socio-economic conditions. For instance, some RES are increased more by NNTs able to fix atmospheric nitrogen, and when the ecosystem is located in low-latitude biomes; some CES are increased more by NNTs in less-wealthy countries or in countries with higher gross domestic products. The effects of NNTs on several ecosystem (dis)services exhibited some synergies (e.g. among soil fertility, soil formation and climate regulation or between aesthetic values and pollen allergenicity), but also trade-offs (e.g. between fire regulation and soil erosion control). Our analyses provide a quantitative understanding of the complex synergies, trade-offs and context dependencies involved for the effects of NNTs that is essential for attaining a sustained provision of ecosystem services.

Managing plant invasions through the lens of remote sensing: A review of progress and the way forward.

Biological invasions are a challenging driver of global environmental change and a fingerprint of the Anthropocene. Remote sensing has gradually become a fundamental tool for understanding invasion patterns, processes and impacts. Nevertheless, a quantitative overview of the progress and extent of remote sensing applications to the management of plant invasions is lacking. This overview is particularly necessary to support the development of more operational frameworks based on remote sensing that can effectively improve the management of invasions. Here, we evaluate and discuss the progress, current state and future opportunities of remote sensing for the research and management of plant invasions. Supported on a systematic literature review, our study shows that, since the 1970s, remote sensing was mainly used to map and identify invasive plants, evolving, around the mid-2000s, towards a tool for assessing invasion impacts. Although remote sensing studies often focus on detecting plant invaders at advanced invasion stages, they can also contribute to the prediction of early invasion stages and to the assessment of their impacts. Despite the growing awareness of technical limitations, remote sensing offers many opportunities to further improve the management of plant invasions. These opportunities relate to the capacity of remote sensing to: (a) detect and evaluate the extent of invasions, assisting on any management option aiming at mitigating plant invasions and their impacts; (b) consider modelling frameworks that anticipate future invasions, supporting the prevention and eradication at early invasion stages and protecting ecosystems and the services they provide; and (c) monitor changes in invasion dominance, as well as the resulting impacts, supporting mitigation, restoration and adaptation actions. Finally, we discuss the way forward to make remote sensing more effective in the scope of invasion management, considering current and future Earth observation missions.

Correction: Community structure informs species geographic distributions.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0197877.].

Community structure informs species geographic distributions.

Understanding what determines species' geographic distributions is crucial for assessing global change threats to biodiversity. Measuring limits on distributions is usually, and necessarily, done with data at large geographic extents and coarse spatial resolution. However, survival of individuals is determined by processes that happen at small spatial scales. The relative abundance of coexisting species (i.e. 'community structure') reflects assembly processes occurring at small scales, and are often available for relatively extensive areas, so could be useful for explaining species distributions. We demonstrate that Bayesian Network Inference (BNI) can overcome several challenges to including community structure into studies of species distributions, despite having been little used to date. We hypothesized that the relative abundance of coexisting species can improve predictions of species distributions. In 1570 assemblages of 68 Mediterranean woody plant species we used BNI to incorporate community structure into Species Distribution Models (SDMs), alongside environmental information. Information on species associations improved SDM predictions of community structure and species distributions moderately, though for some habitat specialists the deviance explained increased by up to 15%. We demonstrate that most species associations (95%) were positive and occurred between species with ecologically similar traits. This suggests that SDM improvement could be because species co-occurrences are a proxy for local ecological processes. Our study shows that Bayesian Networks, when interpreted carefully, can be used to include local conditions into measurements of species' large-scale distributions, and this information can improve the predictions of species distributions.

Dynamic models in research and management of biological invasions.

Invasive species are increasing in number, extent and impact worldwide. Effective invasion management has thus become a core socio-ecological challenge. To tackle this challenge, integrating spatial-temporal dynamics of invasion processes with modelling approaches is a promising approach. The inclusion of dynamic processes in such modelling frameworks (i.e. dynamic or hybrid models, here defined as models that integrate both dynamic and static approaches) adds an explicit temporal dimension to the study and management of invasions, enabling the prediction of invasions and optimisation of multi-scale management and governance. However, the extent to which dynamic approaches have been used for that purpose is under-investigated. Based on a literature review, we examined the extent to which dynamic modelling has been used to address invasions worldwide. We then evaluated how the use of dynamic modelling has evolved through time in the scope of invasive species management. The results suggest that modelling, in particular dynamic modelling, has been increasingly applied to biological invasions, especially to support management decisions at local scales. Also, the combination of dynamic and static modelling approaches (hybrid models with a spatially explicit output) can be especially effective, not only to support management at early invasion stages (from prevention to early detection), but also to improve the monitoring of invasion processes and impact assessment. Further development and testing of such hybrid models may well be regarded as a priority for future research aiming to improve the management of invasions across scales.

The progress of interdisciplinarity in invasion science.

Interdisciplinarity is needed to gain knowledge of the ecology of invasive species and invaded ecosystems, and of the human dimensions of biological invasions. We combine a quantitative literature review with a qualitative historical narrative to document the progress of interdisciplinarity in invasion science since 1950. Our review shows that 92.4% of interdisciplinary publications (out of 9192) focus on ecological questions, 4.4% on social ones, and 3.2% on social-ecological ones. The emergence of invasion science out of ecology might explain why interdisciplinarity has remained mostly within the natural sciences. Nevertheless, invasion science is attracting social-ecological collaborations to understand ecological challenges, and to develop novel approaches to address new ideas, concepts, and invasion-related questions between scholars and stakeholders. We discuss ways to reframe invasion science as a field centred on interlinked social-ecological dynamics to bring science, governance and society together in a common effort to deal with invasions.

Optical micro-tomography "OPenT" allows the study of large toadfish Halobatrachus didactylus embryos and larvae.

Batrachoidids, which include midshipman and toadfish are less known among embryologists, but are common in other fields. They are characteristic for their acoustic communication, and develop hearing and sound production while young juveniles. They lay large benthic eggs (>5mm) with a thick chorion and adhesive disk and slow development, which are particularly challenging for studying embryology. Here we took advantage of a classical tissue clearing technique and the OPenT open-source platform for optical tomography imaging, to image a series of embryos and larvae from 3 to 30mm in length, which allowed detailed 3D anatomical reconstructions non-destructively. We documented some of the developmental stages (early and late in development) and the anatomy of the delicate stato-acoustic organs, swimming bladder and associated sonic muscles. Compared to other techniques accessible to developmental biology labs, OPenT provided advantages in terms of image quality, cost of operation and data throughput, allowing identification and quantitative morphometrics of organs in larvae, earlier and with higher accuracy than is possible with other imaging techniques.

Reproductive success in the Lusitanian toadfish: Influence of calling activity, male quality and experimental design.

Acoustic signals are sexual ornaments with an established role on mate choice in several taxa, but not in fish. Recent studies have suggested that fish vocal activity may signal male quality and influence male's reproductive success but experimental evidence is lacking. Here we made two experiments to test the hypothesis that vocal activity is essential for male breeding success in a highly vocal fish, the Lusitanian toadfish. We first compared the reproduction success between muted and vocal males. In a second experiment we related male reproduction success with acoustic activity and male quality, including biometric, condition and physiological features. As a proxy for reproductive success we tallied both total number and number of sired eggs, which were correlated. Muting experiments showed that successful mating was dependent on vocalizing. In addition, the number of eggs was positively associated with the male's maximum calling rate. In the second experiment male's reproductive success was positively associated with male condition and negatively related with circulating androgen levels and relative gonad mass, but was not associated with vocal activity. Differences in results may be related with nest design which could have influenced mate choice costs and intra-sexual competition. In the muting experiment nests had a small opening that restrained the large nest-holder but allowed smaller fish, such as females, to pass while in the second experiment fish could move freely. These experiments suggest that a combination of factors, including vocal activity, influence reproductive success in this highly vocal species.