Obesity is a strong risk factor for short-term mortality and adverse outcomes in Mexican patients with COVID-19: a national observational study.

Conflicting results have been obtained through meta-analyses for the role of obesity as a risk factor for adverse outcomes in patients with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), possibly due to the inclusion of predominantly multimorbid patients with severe COVID-19. Here, we aimed to study obesity alone or in combination with other comorbidities as a risk factor for short-term all-cause mortality and other adverse outcomes in Mexican patients evaluated for suspected COVID-19 in ambulatory units and hospitals in Mexico. We performed a retrospective observational analysis in a national cohort of 71 103 patients from all 32 states of Mexico from the National COVID-19 Epidemiological Surveillance Study. Two statistical models were applied through Cox regression to create survival models and logistic regression models to determine risk of death, hospitalisation, invasive mechanical ventilation, pneumonia and admission to an intensive care unit, conferred by obesity and other comorbidities (diabetes mellitus (DM), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, immunosuppression, hypertension, cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease). Models were adjusted for other risk factors. From 24 February to 26 April 2020, 71 103 patients were evaluated for suspected COVID-19; 15 529 (21.8%) had a positive test for SARS-CoV-2; 46 960 (66.1%), negative and 8614 (12.1%), pending results. Obesity alone increased adjusted mortality risk in positive patients (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.04-2.98), but not in negative and pending-result patients. Obesity combined with other comorbidities further increased risk of death (DM: HR = 2.79, 95% CI 2.04-3.80; immunosuppression: HR = 5.06, 95% CI 2.26-11.41; hypertension: HR = 2.30, 95% CI 1.77-3.01) and other adverse outcomes. In conclusion, obesity is a strong risk factor for short-term mortality and critical illness in Mexican patients with COVID-19; risk increases when obesity is present with other comorbidities.

Development and validation of the patient history COVID-19 (PH-Covid19) scoring system: a multivariable prediction model of death in Mexican patients with COVID-19.

Most of the existing prediction models for COVID-19 lack validation, are inadequately reported or are at high risk of bias, a reason which has led to discourage their use. Few existing models have the potential to be extensively used by healthcare providers in low-resource settings since many require laboratory and imaging predictors. Therefore, we sought to develop and validate a multivariable prediction model of death in Mexican patients with COVID-19, by using demographic and patient history predictors. We conducted a national retrospective cohort study in two different sets of patients from the Mexican COVID-19 Epidemiologic Surveillance Study. Patients with a positive reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction for SARS-CoV-2 and complete unduplicated data were eligible. In total, 83 779 patients were included to develop the scoring system through a multivariable Cox regression model; 100 000, to validate the model. Eight predictors (age, sex, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunosuppression, hypertension, obesity and chronic kidney disease) were included in the scoring system called PH-Covid19 (range of values: -2 to 25 points). The predictive model has a discrimination of death of 0.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.796-0.804). The PH-Covid19 scoring system was developed and validated in Mexican patients to aid clinicians to stratify patients with COVID-19 at risk of fatal outcomes, allowing for better and efficient use of resources.