Malaria in Burkina Faso (West Africa) during the twenty-first century.

Temperature and rainfall predicted for the twenty-first century by global coupled models as reported by IPCC, (2014a, and b) were obtained regionally for Burkina Faso and through the Paluclim project, 2011-2014. One of the goals of this project was to assess the upcoming evolution of malaria transmission dynamics. From an impact model on malaria risk linked to climate variability, temperature and rainfall indices were derived. Malaria transmission dynamics were then predicted using the derived temperature and rainfall for the twenty-first century. Similar to the historical evidence of rainfall being an important factor for regulating the seasonal density of malaria vectors, this study also reports a definitive link between low-frequency rainfall variability and malaria in the region under the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This finding can be used by local stakeholders involved with the geography-based population health planning. Moreover, the predicted increase in temperature during the twenty-first century suggests a reduction of larvae survival in Burkina Faso and thus the malaria risk. More generally, the temperature increase could become a new limiting factor for malaria transmission dynamics in the Sahel Region (as reported by Mordecai et al. (2013).

Climate impact on malaria in northern Burkina Faso.

The Paluclim project managed by the French Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) found that total rainfall for a 3-month period is a confounding factor for the density of malaria vectors in the region of Nouna in the Sahel administrative territory of northern Burkina Faso. Following the models introduced in 1999 by Craig et al. and in 2003 by Tanser et al., a climate impact model for malaria risk (using different climate indices) was created. Several predictions of this risk at different temporal scales (i.e. seasonal, inter-annual and low-frequency) were assessed using this climate model. The main result of this investigation was the discovery of a significant link between malaria risk and low-frequency rainfall variability related to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). This result is critical for the health information systems in this region. Knowledge of the AMO phases would help local authorities to organise preparedness and prevention of malaria, which is of particular importance in the climate change context.

Rift Valley fever dynamics in Senegal: a project for pro-active adaptation and improvement of livestock raising management.

The multi-disciplinary French project "Adaptation à la Fiévre de la Vallée du Rift" (AdaptFVR) has concluded a 10-year constructive interaction between many scientists/partners involved with the Rift Valley fever (RVF) dynamics in Senegal. The three targeted objectives reached were (i) to produce--in near real-time--validated risk maps for parked livestock exposed to RVF mosquitoes/vectors bites; (ii) to assess the impacts on RVF vectors from climate variability at different time-scales including climate change; and (iii) to isolate processes improving local livestock management and animal health. Based on these results, concrete, pro-active adaptive actions were taken on site, which led to the establishment of a RVF early warning system (RVFews). Bulletins were released in a timely fashion during the project, tested and validated in close collaboration with the local populations, i.e. the primary users. Among the strategic, adaptive methods developed, conducted and evaluated in terms of cost/benefit analyses are the larvicide campaigns and the coupled bio-mathematical (hydrological and entomological) model technologies, which are being transferred to the staff of the "Centre de Suivi Ecologique" (CSE) in Dakar during 2013. Based on the results from the AdaptFVR project, other projects with similar conceptual and modelling approaches are currently being implemented, e.g. for urban and rural malaria and dengue in the French Antilles.

Risk mapping of Anopheles gambiae s.l. densities using remotely-sensed environmental and meteorological data in an urban area: Dakar, Senegal.

INTRODUCTION: High malaria transmission heterogeneity in an urban environment is basically due to the complex distribution of Anopheles larval habitats, sources of vectors. Understanding 1) the meteorological and ecological factors associated with differential larvae spatio-temporal distribution and 2) the vectors dynamic, both may lead to improving malaria control measures with remote sensing and high resolution data as key components. In this study a robust operational methodology for entomological malaria predictive risk maps in urban settings is developed. METHODS: The Tele-epidemiology approach, i.e., 1) intensive ground measurements (Anopheles larval habitats and Human Biting Rate, or HBR), 2) selection of the most appropriate satellite data (for mapping and extracting environmental and meteorological information), and 3) use of statistical models taking into account the spatio-temporal data variability has been applied in Dakar, Senegal. RESULTS: First step was to detect all water bodies in Dakar. Secondly, environmental and meteorological conditions in the vicinity of water bodies favoring the presence of Anopheles gambiae s.l. larvae were added. Then relationship between the predicted larval production and the field measured HBR was identified, in order to generate An. gambiae s.l. HBR high resolution maps (daily, 10-m pixel in space). DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: A robust operational methodology for dynamic entomological malaria predictive risk maps in an urban setting includes spatio-temporal variability of An. gambiae s.l. larval habitats and An. gambiae s.l. HBR. The resulting risk maps are first examples of high resolution products which can be included in an operational warning and targeting system for the implementation of vector control measures.

Utilization of combined remote sensing techniques to detect environmental variables influencing malaria vector densities in rural West Africa.

INTRODUCTION: The use of remote sensing has found its way into the field of epidemiology within the last decades. With the increased sensor resolution of recent and future satellites new possibilities emerge for high resolution risk modeling and risk mapping. METHODS: A SPOT 5 satellite image, taken during the rainy season 2009 was used for calculating indices by combining the image's spectral bands. Besides the widely used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) other indices were tested for significant correlation against field observations. Multiple steps, including the detection of surface water, its breeding appropriateness for Anopheles and modeling of vector imagines abundance, were performed. Data collection on larvae, adult vectors and geographic parameters in the field, was amended by using remote sensing techniques to gather data on altitude (Digital Elevation Model = DEM), precipitation (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission = TRMM), land surface temperatures (LST). RESULTS: The DEM derived altitude as well as indices calculations combining the satellite's spectral bands (NDTI = Normalized Difference Turbidity Index, NDWI Mac Feeters = Normalized Difference Water Index) turned out to be reliable indicators for surface water in the local geographic setting. While Anopheles larvae abundance in habitats is driven by multiple, interconnected factors - amongst which the NDVI - and precipitation events, the presence of vector imagines was found to be correlated negatively to remotely sensed LST and positively to the cumulated amount of rainfall in the preceding 15 days and to the Normalized Difference Pond Index (NDPI) within the 500 m buffer zone around capture points. CONCLUSIONS: Remotely sensed geographical and meteorological factors, including precipitations, temperature, as well as vegetation, humidity and land cover indicators could be used as explanatory variables for surface water presence, larval development and imagines densities. This modeling approach based on remotely sensed information is potentially useful for counter measures that are putting on at the environmental side, namely vector larvae control via larviciding and water body reforming.

The use of remotely sensed environmental data in the study of malaria.

Mapping and anticipating risk is a major issue in the fight against malaria, a disease causing an estimated one million deaths each year. Approximately half the world's population is at risk and it is of prime importance to evaluate the burden of malaria at the spatial as well as the temporal level. The role of the environment with regard to the determinants of transmission and burden of the disease are described followed by a discussion of special issues such as urban malaria, human population mapping and the detection of changes at the temporal scale. Risk maps at appropriate scales can provide valuable information for targeted control and the present review discusses the essentials of principles, methods, advantages and limitations of remote sensing along with a presentation of ecological, meteorological and climatologic data which rule the distribution of malaria. The panel of commonly used analytic methods is examined and the methodological limitations are highlighted. A review of the literature details the increasing interest in the use of remotely sensed data in the study of malaria, by mapping or modeling several malariometric indices such as prevalence, morbidity and mortality, which are discussed with reference to vector breeding, vector density and entomological inoculation rate, estimates of which constitute the foundation for understanding endemicity and epidemics.

TerraSAR-X high-resolution radar remote sensing: an operational warning system for Rift Valley fever risk.

In the vicinity of the Barkedji village (in the Ferlo region of Senegal), the abundance and aggressiveness of the vector mosquitoes for Rift Valley fever (RVF) are strongly linked to rainfall events and associated ponds dynamics. Initially, these results were obtained from spectral analysis of high-resolution (~10 m) Spot-5 images, but, as a part of the French AdaptFVR project, identification of the free water dynamics within ponds was made with the new high-resolution (down to 3-meter pixels), Synthetic Aperture Radar satellite (TerraSAR-X) produced by Infoterra GmbH, Friedrichshafen/Potsdam, Germany. During summer 2008, within a 30 x 50 km radar image, it was found that identified free water fell well within the footprints of ponds localized by optical data (i.e. Spot-5 images), which increased the confidence in this new and complementary remote sensing technique. Moreover, by using near real-time rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), NASA/JAXA joint mission, the filling-up and flushing-out rates of the ponds can be accurately determined. The latter allows for a precise, spatio-temporal mapping of the zones potentially occupied by mosquitoes capable of revealing the variability of pond surfaces. The risk for RVF infection of gathered bovines and small ruminants (~1 park/km(2)) can thus be assessed. This new operational approach (which is independent of weather conditions) is an important development in the mapping of risk components (i.e. hazards plus vulnerability) related to RVF transmission during the summer monsoon, thus contributing to a RVF early warning system.

Spatial heterogeneity and temporal evolution of malaria transmission risk in Dakar, Senegal, according to remotely sensed environmental data.

BACKGROUND: The United Nations forecasts that by 2050, more than 60% of the African population will live in cities. Thus, urban malaria is considered an important emerging health problem in that continent. Remote sensing (RS) and geographic information systems (GIS) are useful tools for addressing the challenge of assessing, understanding and spatially focusing malaria control activities. The objectives of the present study were to use high spatial resolution SPOT (Satellite Pour l'Observation de la Terre) satellite images to identify some urban environmental factors in Dakar associated with Anopheles arabiensis densities, to assess the persistence of these associations and to describe spatial changes in at-risk environments using a decadal time scale. METHODS: Two SPOT images from the 1996 and 2007 rainy seasons in Dakar were processed to extract environmental factors, using supervised classification of land use and land cover, and a calculation of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and distance to vegetation. Linear regressions were fitted to identify the ecological factors associated with An. arabiensis aggressiveness measured in 1994-97 in the South and centre districts of Dakar. Risk maps for populated areas were computed and compared for 1996 and 2007 using the results of the statistical models. RESULTS: Almost 60% of the variability in anopheline aggressiveness measured in 1994-97 was explained with only one variable: the built-up area in a 300-m radius buffer around the catching points. This association remained stable between 1996 and 2007. Risk maps were drawn by inverting the statistical association. The total increase of the built-up areas in Dakar was about 30% between 1996 and 2007. In proportion to the total population of the city, the population at high risk for malaria fell from 32% to 20%, whereas the low-risk population rose from 29 to 41%. CONCLUSIONS: Environmental data retrieved from high spatial resolution SPOT satellite images were associated with An. arabiensis densities in Dakar urban setting, which allowed to generate malaria transmission risk maps. The evolution of the risk was quantified, and the results indicated there are benefits of urbanization in Dakar, since the proportion of the low risk population increased while urbanization progressed.

Highly focused anopheline breeding sites and malaria transmission in Dakar.

BACKGROUND: Urbanization has a great impact on the composition of the vector system and malaria transmission dynamics. In Dakar, some malaria cases are autochthonous but parasite rates and incidences of clinical malaria attacks have been recorded at low levels. Ecological heterogeneity of malaria transmission was investigated in Dakar, in order to characterize the Anopheles breeding sites in the city and to study the dynamics of larval density and adult aggressiveness in ten characteristically different urban areas. METHODS: Ten study areas were sampled in Dakar and Pikine. Mosquitoes were collected by human landing collection during four nights in each area (120 person-nights). The Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite (CSP) index was measured by ELISA and the entomological inoculation rates (EIR) were calculated. Open water collections in the study areas were monitored weekly for physico-chemical characterization and the presence of anopheline larvae. Adult mosquitoes and hatched larvae were identified morphologically and by molecular methods. RESULTS: In September-October 2007, 19,451 adult mosquitoes were caught among which, 1,101 were Anopheles gambiae s.l. The Human Biting Rate ranged from 0.1 bites per person per night in Yoff Village to 43.7 in Almadies. Seven out of 1,101 An. gambiae s.l. were found to be positive for P. falciparum (CSP index = 0.64%). EIR ranged from 0 infected bites per person per year in Yoff Village to 16.8 in Almadies. The An. gambiae complex population was composed of Anopheles arabiensis (94.8%) and Anopheles melas (5.2%). None of the An. melas were infected with P. falciparum. Of the 54 water collection sites monitored, 33 (61.1%) served as anopheline breeding sites on at least one observation. No An. melas was identified among the larval samples. Some physico-chemical characteristics of water bodies were associated with the presence/absence of anopheline larvae and with larval density. A very close parallel between larval and adult densities was found in six of the ten study areas. CONCLUSION: The results provide evidence of malaria transmission in downtown Dakar and its surrounding suburbs. Spatial heterogeneity of human biting rates was very marked and malaria transmission was highly focal. In Dakar, mean figures for transmission would not provide a comprehensive picture of the entomological situation; risk evaluation should therefore be undertaken on a small scale.

Rift Valley fever in a zone potentially occupied by Aedes vexans in Senegal: dynamics and risk mapping.

This paper presents an analysis of the interaction between the various variables associated with Rift Valley fever (RVF) such as the mosquito vector, available hosts and rainfall distribution. To that end, the varying zones potentially occupied by mosquitoes (ZPOM), rainfall events and pond dynamics, and the associated exposure of hosts to the RVF virus by Aedes vexans, were analyzed in the Barkedji area of the Ferlo, Senegal, during the 2003 rainy season. Ponds were identified by remote sensing using a high-resolution SPOT-5 satellite image. Additional data on ponds and rainfall events from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission were combined with in-situ entomological and limnimetric measurements, and the localization of vulnerable ruminant hosts (data derived from QuickBird satellite). Since "Ae. vexans productive events" are dependent on the timing of rainfall for their embryogenesis (six days without rain are necessary to trigger hatching), the dynamic spatio-temporal distribution of Ae. vexans density was based on the total rainfall amount and pond dynamics. Detailed ZPOM mapping was obtained on a daily basis and combined with aggressiveness temporal profiles. Risks zones, i.e. zones where hazards and vulnerability are combined, are expressed by the percentages of parks where animals are potentially exposed to mosquito bites. This new approach, simply relying upon rainfall distribution evaluated from space, is meant to contribute to the implementation of a new, operational early warning system for RVF based on environmental risks linked to climatic and environmental conditions.

Climate impacts on environmental risks evaluated from space: a conceptual approach to the case of Rift Valley Fever in Senegal.

BACKGROUND: Climate and environment vary across many spatio-temporal scales, including the concept of climate change, which impact on ecosystems, vector-borne diseases and public health worldwide. OBJECTIVES: To develop a conceptual approach by mapping climatic and environmental conditions from space and studying their linkages with Rift Valley Fever (RVF) epidemics in Senegal. DESIGN: Ponds in which mosquitoes could thrive were identified from remote sensing using high-resolution SPOT-5 satellite images. Additional data on pond dynamics and rainfall events (obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) were combined with hydrological in-situ data. Localisation of vulnerable hosts such as penned cattle (from QuickBird satellite) were also used. RESULTS: Dynamic spatio-temporal distribution of Aedes vexans density (one of the main RVF vectors) is based on the total rainfall amount and ponds' dynamics. While Zones Potentially Occupied by Mosquitoes are mapped, detailed risk areas, i.e. zones where hazards and vulnerability occur, are expressed in percentages of areas where cattle are potentially exposed to mosquitoes' bites. CONCLUSIONS: This new conceptual approach, using precise remote-sensing techniques, simply relies upon rainfall distribution also evaluated from space. It is meant to contribute to the implementation of operational early warning systems for RVF based on both natural and anthropogenic climatic and environmental changes. In a climate change context, this approach could also be applied to other vector-borne diseases and places worldwide.

Using high spatial resolution remote sensing for risk mapping of malaria occurrence in the Nouna district, Burkina Faso.

INTRODUCTION: Malaria control measures such as early diagnosis and treatment, intermittent treatment of pregnant women, impregnated bed nets, indoor spraying and larval control measures are difficult to target specifically because of imprecise estimates of risk at a small-scale level. Ways of estimating local risks for malaria are therefore important. METHODS: A high-resolution satellite view from the SPOT 5 satellite during 2008 was used to generate a land cover classification in the malaria endemic lowland of North-Western Burkina Faso. For the area of a complete satellite view of 60 x 60 km, a supervised land cover classification was carried out. Ten classes were built and correlated to land cover types known for acting as Anopheles mosquito breeding sites. RESULTS: According to known correlations of Anopheles larvae presence and surface water-related land cover, cultivated areas in the riverine vicinity of Kossi River were shown to be one of the most favourable sites for Anopheles production. Similar conditions prevail in the South of the study region, where clayey soils and higher precipitations benefit the occurrence of surface water. Besides pools, which are often directly detectable, rice fields and occasionally flooded crops represent most appropriate habitats. On the other hand, forests, elevated regions on porous soils, grasslands and the dryer, sandy soils in the north-western part turned out to deliver fewer mosquito breeding opportunities. CONCLUSIONS: Potential high and low risks for malaria at the village level can be differentiated from satellite data. While much remains to be done in terms of establishing correlations between remotely sensed risks and malaria disease patterns, this is a potentially useful approach which could lead to more focused disease control programmes.

Mapping of zones potentially occupied by Aedes vexans and Culex poicilipes mosquitoes, the main vectors of Rift Valley fever in Senegal.

A necessary condition for Rift Valley fever (RVF) emergence is the presence of Aedes (Aedimorphus) vexans and Culex (Culex) poicilipes mosquitoes carrying the arbovirus and responsible for the infection. This paper presents a detailed mapping in the Sahelian region of Senegal of zones potentially occupied by these mosquitoes (ZPOMs) whose population density is directly linked to ecozones in the vicinity of small ponds. The vectors habitats and breeding sites have been characterized through an integrated approach combining remote sensing technology, geographical information systems, geographical positioning systems and field observations for proper geo-referencing. From five SPOT-5 images (approximately 10 m spatial resolution) with appropriate channels, a meridional composite transect of 290 x 60 km was first constructed at the height of the summer monsoon. Subsequent ZPOMs covered major ecozones from north to south with different hydrological environments and different patterns pond distributions. It was found that an overall area of 12,817 ha +/- 10% (about 0.8% of the transect) is occupied by ponds with an average ZPOM 17 times larger than this (212,813 ha +/- 10% or about 14% of the transect). By comparing the very humid year of 2003 with 2006 which had just below normal rainfall, the ZPOMs inter-annual variability was analyzed in a sandy-clayey ecozone with an important hydrofossil riverbed within the Ferlo region of Senegal. Very probably contributing to an increased abundance of vectors by the end of August 2003, it was shown that the aggregate pond area was already about 22 times larger than in August 2006, corresponding to an approximately five times larger total ZPOM. The results show the importance of pin-pointing small ponds (sizes down to 0.1 ha) and their geographical distribution in order to assess animal exposure to the RVF vectors.