Analysis and prediction of readmissions for heart failure in the first year after discharge with INCA score.

To determine the readmissions trends and the comorbidities of patients with heart failure that most influence hospital readmission rates. Heart failure (HF) is one of the most prevalent health problems as it causes loss of quality of life and increased health-care costs. Its prevalence increases with age and is a major cause of re-hospitalisation within 30 days after discharge. INCA study had observational and ambispective design, including 4,959 patients from 2000 to 2019, with main diagnosis of HF in Extremadura (Spain). The variables examined were collected from discharge reports. To develop the readmission index, capable of discriminating the population with higher probability of re-hospitalisation, a Competing-risk model was generated. Readmission rate have increased over the period under investigation. The main predictors of readmission were: age, diabetes mellitus, presence of neoplasia, HF without previous hospitalisation, atrial fibrillation, anaemia, previous myocardial infarction, obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD). These variables were assigned values with balanced weights, our INCA index showed that the population with values greater than 2 for men and women were more likely to be re-admitted. Previous HF without hospital admission, CKD, and COPD appear to have the greatest effect on readmission. Our index allowed us to identify patients with different risks of readmission.

Trusting the Health System and COVID 19 Restriction Compliance.

We examine the extent to which exposure to higher relative COVID-19 mortality (RM), influences health system trust (HST), and whether changes in HST explain the perceived ease of compliance with pandemic restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing on evidence from two representative surveys covering all regions of 28 European countries before and after the first COVID-19 wave, and using a difference in differences strategy together with Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM), we document that living in a region with higher RM during the first wave of the pandemic increased HST. However, the positive effect of RM on HST is driven by individuals over 45 years of age, and the opposite effect is found among younger cohorts. Furthemore, we find that a higher HST reduces the costs of complying with COVID-19 restrictions, but only so long as excess mortality does not exceed the average by more than 20%, at which point the ease of complying with COVID-19 restrictions significantly declines, offsetting the positive effect of trust in the healthcare system. Our interpretation of these estimates is that a higher RM is interpreted as a risk signal among those over 45, and as a signal of health-care system failure among younger age individuals.

Sociosanitary Legal and Economic Aspects in Nursing Homes for the Elderly in Spain.

AIM: The study aimed to identify and compare aspects of the different Spanish regulations on the minimum conditions that nursing homes must meet and to compare whether these requirements significantly affect the price of a nursing home place in each region. METHODS: We analyzed and compared the 17 regional regulations that must be met by nursing homes in terms of equipment and social and healthcare staff and combined this information with regional information concerning the price and coverage of public and subsidized places in nursing homes. RESULTS: The study revealed significant regional inequality in physical facilities and human resources. However, the number of regulatory measures referring to the mandatory availability of physical space or specific material resources was not positively correlated with an increase in the price of a place in a public or subsidized nursing home. CONCLUSIONS: No unified regulations throughout Spain regulate the aspects that residential centers must comply with. There is a need to move towards a person-centered approach, providing an environment as close to home as possible. The regulation of minimum standards to be met by all nursing homes at the national level should not significantly impact prices.

'Investing' in care for old age? An examination of long-term care expenditure dynamics and its spillovers.

We study the dynamic drivers of expenditure on long-term care (LTC) programmes, and more specifically, the effects of labour market participation of traditional unpaid caregivers (women aged 40 and older) on LTC spending, alongside the spillover effects of a rise in LTC expenditure on health care expenditures (HCE) and the economy (per capita GDP). Our estimates draw from a panel of more than a decade worth of expenditure data from a sample of OECD countries. We use a panel vector auto-regressive (panel-VAR) system that considers the dynamics between the dependent variables. We find that LTC expenditure increases with the rise of the labour market participation of the traditional unpaid caregiver (women over 40 years of age), and that such expenditures rise exerts large spillover effects on health spending and the economy. We find that a 1% increase in female labour participation gives rise to a 1.48% increase in LTC expenditure and a 0.88% reduction in HCE. The effect of LTC spending over HCE is mainly driven by a reduction in inpatient and medicine expenditures, exhibiting large country heterogeneity. Finally, we document significant spillover effects of LTC expenditures on per capita GDP. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00181-022-02246-0.

The 'welcomed lockdown' hypothesis? Mental wellbeing and mobility restrictions.

The COVID-19 pandemic and its mobility restrictions have been an external shock, influencing mental wellbeing. However, does risk exposure to COVID-19 affect the mental wellbeing effect of lockdowns? This paper examines the 'welcomed lockdown' hypothesis, namely the extent to which there is a level of risk where mobility restrictions are not a hindrance to mental wellbeing. We exploit the differential timing of exposure the pandemic, and the different stringency of lockdown policies across European countries and we focus on the effects on two mental health conditions, namely anxiety and depression. We study whether differences in the individual symptoms of anxiety and depression are explained by the combination of pandemic mortality and stringency of lockdown. We draw on an event study approach, complemented with a Difference-in-Difference (DiD), and Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD). Our estimates suggest an average increase in depression (3.95%) and anxiety (10%) symptoms relative to the mean level on the day that lockdown took effect. However, such effects are wiped out when a country's exhibits high mortality ('pandemic category 5'). Hence, we conclude that in an environment of high mortality, lockdowns no longer give rise to a reduction in mental wellbeing consistent with the 'welcome lockdown' hypothesis.

Risky restrictions? Mobility restriction effects on risk awareness and anxiety.

Although mobility restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic were intended to change behaviours by influencing risk awareness, they might have prompted a rise in risk anxiety ('worry for one's health') both among individuals exposed to such restrictions and those living in border countries. This paper studies this question by examining survey data from 22 European countries in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (March 20th and April 6th 2020). Drawing on an event study analysis we show that COVID-19 mobility restrictions raised individuals COVID-19 risk awareness both in the exposed and border countries for almost a week after the announcement. The spillover effect on border countries accounts for about 67% of the effect in the exposed country. However, mobility restrictions gave rise to an increase in  risk anxiety in low-risk countries (which is between 4 and 7 times higher than moderate and high-risk countries). These effects are heterogeneous across age, education and socioeconomic status.

Do Public Caregiving Subsidies and Supports affect the Provision of Care and Transfers?

We study whether caregiving and intergenerational transfer decisions are sensitive to changes in economic incentives following the inception of a new unconditional and universal system of allowances and supports, after the introduction of the 2006 Promotion of Personal Autonomy and Care for Dependent Persons Act (SAAD in Spanish), and the ensuing effects of its austerity cuts after 2012. We find that whilst the introduction of a caregiving allowance (of a maximum value of €530 in 2011) increased the supply of informal caregiving by 20-22 percentual points (pp), the inception of a companion system of publicly subsidised homecare supports did not modify the supply of care. Consistent with an exchange motive for intergenerational transfers, we estimate an average 17 pp (8.2-8.7pp) increase (decrease) in downstream (upstream) transfers among those receiving caregiving allowances. Our estimates resulting from the reduction in the allowances and supports after the austerity cuts in 2012 are consistent with our main estimates, and suggest stronguer effects among lower-income families.

Assessment of the Cost of the Mediterranean Diet in a Low-Income Region: Adherence and Relationship with Available Incomes.

BACKGROUND: The Mediterranean Diet (MD) is recognized as heart-healthy, but the economic cost associated with this type of diet has scarcely been studied. The objective of the present study is to explore the cost and adherence of a low-income region population to the MD and its relationship with income. METHODS: A population-based study was carried out on 2,833 subjects between 25 and 79 years of age, 54% women, selected at random from the municipalities of Vegas Altas, La Siberia and La Serena in the province of Badajoz, Extremadura (Spain). Average monthly cost of each product included in the MD was computed and related to adherence to the MD using the Panagiotakos Index and average disposable income. RESULTS: The monthly median cost was 203.6€ (IQR: 154.04-265.37). Food-related expenditure was higher for men (p<0.001), age cohort between 45 and 54 years (p<0.013) and those living in urban areas (p<0.001). A positive correlation between food-related expenditure and the MD adherence was found. Monthly median cost represents 15% of average disposable income, ranging between 11% for the group with low MD adherence and 17% for the group with high MD adherence. CONCLUSIONS: The monthly cost of the MD was positively correlated with the degree of adherence to this dietary pattern. Given that the estimated monthly cost is similar to that of other Spanish regions with a higher income level, the economic effort required to be able to afford the Mediterranean diet is higher. This may represent a barrier to access, which should be analyzed in detail by public decision-makers.

'More than one red herring'? Heterogeneous effects of ageing on health care utilisation.

We study the effect of ageing, defined as an extra year of life, on health care utilisation. We disentangle the direct effect of ageing, from other alternative explanations such as the presence of comorbidities and endogenous time to death (TTD) that are argued to absorb the effect of ageing (so-called 'red herring' hypothesis). We exploit individual level end of life data from several European countries that record the use of medicine, outpatient and inpatient care and long-term care. Consistently with the 'red herring hypothesis', we find that corrected TTD estimates are significantly different from uncorrected ones, and their effect size exceeds that of an extra year of life, which in turn is moderated by individual comorbidities. Corrected estimates suggest an overall attenuated effect of ageing, which does not influence outpatient care utilisation. These results suggest the presence of 'more than one red herring' depending on the type of health care examined.

Interactions between Private Health and Long-term Care Insurance and the Effects of the Crisis: Evidence for Spain.

This paper analyzes the reasons for the scarce development of the private long-term care insurance market in Spain, and its relationship with health insurance. We are also interested in the effects the crisis has had both on the evolution of the demand for long-term care insurance and on the existence of regional disparities. We estimate bivariate probit models with endogenous variables using Spanish data from the Survey on Health and Retirement in Europe. Our results confirm that individuals wishing to purchase long-term care insurance are, in a sense, forced to subscribe a health insurance policy. In spite of this restriction in the supply of long-term care insurance contracts, we find its demand has grown in recent years, which we attribute to the budget cuts affecting the implementation of Spain's System of Autonomy and Attention to Dependent People. Regional differences in its implementation, as well as the varying effects the crisis has had across Spanish regions, lead to the existence of a crowding-in effect in the demand for long-term care insurance in those regions where co-payment is based on income and wealth, those that have a lower percentage of public long-term care beneficiaries, or those with a smaller share of cash benefits over total public benefits. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An estimation of the value of informal care provided to dependent people in Spain.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper was to arrive at an approximation of the value of non-professional (informal) care provided to disabled people living within a household in Spain. METHODS: We used the Survey on Disabilities, Autonomy and Dependency carried out in 2008 to obtain information about disabled individuals and their informal caregivers. We computed the total number of informal caregiving hours provided by main caregivers in Spain in 2008. The monetary value of informal care time was obtained using three different approaches: the proxy good method, the opportunity cost method and the contingent valuation method. RESULTS: Total hours of informal care provided in 2008 were estimated at 4193 million and the monetary value ranged from EUR23,064 to EUR50,158 million depending on the method used. The value of informal care was estimated at figures equivalent to 1.73-4.90 % of the gross domestic product for that year. CONCLUSION: Informal care represents a very high social cost regardless of the estimation method considered. A holistic approach to care of dependent people should take into account the role and needs of informal caregivers, promote their social recognition and lead to policies that enhance efficient use of formal and informal resources.

Informal care motivations and intergenerational transfers in European countries.

This work sets out to analyze the motivations adult children may have to provide informal care, considering the monetary transfers they receive from their parents. Traditional motivations, such as altruism and exchange, are matched against more recent social bond theories. Our findings indicate that informal caregivers receive less frequent and less generous transfers than non-caregivers; that is, caregivers are more prone to suppress their self-interested motivations in order to prioritize the well being of another person. Additionally, long-term public care benefits increase both the probability of receiving a transfer and its amount, with this effect being more intense for both the poorest and richest households. Our findings suggest that if long-term care benefits are intended to increase the recipients' welfare and represent a higher fraction of total income for the poorest households, the effectiveness of these long-term care policies may be diluted.

Unmet needs in formal care: kindling the spark for caregiving behavior.

This paper studies if a situation of formal care unmet needs is a strong motivation for the onset of caregiving behavior, and if becoming caregiving is a compelling argument for leaving current job (in the presence/absence of formal care unmet needs). We use data from the Eurobarometer 67.3 for 18 European countries and estimate a three simultaneous equations model taking into account the potential endogeneity of labor participation and formal care unmet needs and assuming non-zero correlation among the error terms of the three equations. Results show that individuals who anticipate that becoming caregiver can suppose an obstacle for continuing working feel more refractory and are more prone to avoid caregiving responsibilities. Knowing someone with an unmet needs problem increases the probability of becoming caregiver by +19.23 pp (with a maximum of +39.39 pp for difficult access unmet needs) and raises the probability of leaving employment by 5.77 pp. Having to possibility of receiving economic benefits for caregivers encourage more labor market exit as compared to payment of social security contributions during care leaves.

Economic valuation of informal care in cerebrovascular accident survivors in Spain.

BACKGROUND: Cerebrovascular diseases are the second leading cause of death worldwide and one of the health conditions which demand the highest level of social services. The aim of this study was to estimate the social cost of non-professional (informal) care provided to survivors of cerebrovascular accidents (CVA) with some type of disability in Spain. METHODS: We obtained data from the 2008 Survey on Disability, Independent Living and Dependency (EDAD-08) on the main characteristics of individuals who provide informal care to survivors of CVAs in Spain. We estimated the cost of substituting informal care in favor of formal care provided by professional caregivers (proxy good method) and performed a statistical analysis of the relationship between degree of dependency and number of care hours provided using ordinary least squares regression. RESULTS: The number of disabled people diagnosed with CVA totaled 1,975 (329,544 people when extrapolating to the national population using the elevation factor provided by EDAD-08). Of these, 1,221 individuals (192,611 people extrapolated to the national population) received at least one hour of informal care per week. The estimated hours of informal care provided in 2008 amounted to 852 million. The economic valuation of the time of informal care ranges from 6.53 billion euros (at 7.67 euros/hour) to 10.83 billion euros (when calculating each hour of care at 12.71 euros). The results of our statistical analysis highlight the importance of degree of dependency in explaining differences in the number of hours of informal care provided. CONCLUSIONS: The results of our study reveal the high social cost of cerebrovascular accidents in Spain. In addition, evidence is presented of a correlation between higher degree of dependency in CVA survivors and greater number of hours of care received. An integral approach to care for CVA survivors requires that the caregivers' role and needs be taken into account.

Informal care of patients with schizophrenia.

BACKGROUND: Schizophrenia is a disease that causes strong societal rejection and requires a significant allocation of healthcare and social resources. The chronicity and characteristics of the disease require continued care, often provided by nonprofessionals close to the person diagnosed with schizophrenia. AIM OF STUDY: To analyze the value of informal care associated with the loss of personal autonomy (dependency) caused by schizophrenia in Spain; to study the association between the level of dependency and the number of hours of informal care provided; and to examine the association between the level of dependency/hours of informal care and the burden borne by caregivers. METHODS: We used the Survey on Disabilities, Autonomy and Dependency to obtain information on the characteristics of disabled individuals with schizophrenia and the individuals who provide them with personal care. Assessment of informal care time was performed using the proxy good method. Statistical multivariate analyses using ordered probit models were conducted to study the impact of the degree of dependency on the hours of care provided and probit models to study the burden placed on caregivers in terms of health, professional, and leisure/social dimensions. RESULTS: The economic value of care varies between 523.06 and 866.7 euro per week censoring at 16 hours of care per day (667.22-1,105.66 when no time censored). A primary informal caregiver of a severe or greatly dependent individual with schizophrenia was between 20.5% and 23.8% more likely to provide a high level of informal care (over 70 hours per week), between 6.1% and 6.4% less likely to provide a medium level of informal care (between 31 and 70 hours per week), and between 14.4% and 17.6% less likely to provide low-level care (30 hours or less per week). Informal caregivers who provide care for severely/greatly dependent or moderately dependent people had a higher probability of suffering from health, professional, and family/socially related problems than caregivers who cared for non-dependent people. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The results show a part of the high social cost of schizophrenia in Spain. At the same time, the study provides evidence that more severe levels of dependency are positively associated with more hours of informal care and higher caregiver burden. IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTH POLICY: The results show that health or social care programs targeted at persons with autonomy limitations cannot overlook the importance of informal care, since doing so would lead to inefficiencies or inequities and reduce the well-being of citizens. IMPLICATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH: Information on informal care should be incorporated in the design of health and social care policies geared toward improving equity and efficiency in the allocation of social resources. Longitudinal studies of patients diagnosed with schizophrenia would provide further information on the characteristics and impact of informal care.

La interacción del sistema social y el sanitario. Informe SESPAS 2012 / Interaction between the social and the health systems. SESPAS Report 2012

La Ley 39/2006, de 14 de diciembre, de Promoción de la Autonomía Personal y Atención a las Personas en situación de Dependencia, regula las condiciones básicas para la promoción de la autonomía personal y el cuidado de las personas en situación de dependencia mediante la creación del Sistema de Autonomía y Atención a la Dependencia (SAAD), y constituye una oportunidad excelente para avanzar en la construcción del espacio sociosanitario. El objetivo de la integración sociosanitaria es pasar de un marco fragmentado, en donde el individuo recibe y solicita las prestaciones a servicios sociales y sanitarias por separado, a un nuevo modelo de responsabilidad compartida. Desde los años 1980 se han desarrollado diversos proyectos de ámbito nacional o regional de cooperación sociosanitaria. Sin embargo, aunque se han realizado importantes esfuerzos en este sentido, y hay diversas experiencias de integración de servicios sanitarios en varias comunidades autónomas, sigue predominando la coordinación asistencial en el ámbito sanitario por encima de la integración (AU)

Act 39/2006, of 14th December, for the Promotion of Personal Autonomy and the Care of Dependent Individuals establishes the basic conditions for the promotion of personal autonomy and the care of the dependent through the creation of the System of Autonomy and Care of Dependent Individuals and constitutes an excellent opportunity to make progress in the development of a health care space.The aim of healthcare integration is to move from a fragmented framework, in which individuals apply for and receive health benefits and care benefits separately, to a new model of shared responsibility. Since the 1980s, several national and regional projects of healthcare cooperation have been developed. However, although substantial efforts have been made in some autonomous regions of Spain, healthcare coordination seems to predominate over integration in the health setting (AU)

[Interaction between the social and the health systems. SESPAS Report 2012]. / La interacción del sistema social y el sanitario. Informe SESPAS 2012.

Act 39/2006, of 14th December, for the Promotion of Personal Autonomy and the Care of Dependent Individuals establishes the basic conditions for the promotion of personal autonomy and the care of the dependent through the creation of the System of Autonomy and Care of Dependent Individuals and constitutes an excellent opportunity to make progress in the development of a health care space. The aim of healthcare integration is to move from a fragmented framework, in which individuals apply for and receive health benefits and care benefits separately, to a new model of shared responsibility. Since the 1980s, several national and regional projects of healthcare cooperation have been developed. However, although substantial efforts have been made in some autonomous regions of Spain, healthcare coordination seems to predominate over integration in the health setting.

[Trade-off between formal and informal care in Europe]. / Trade-off entre cuidados formales e informales en Europa.

OBJECTIVE: To study the relationship between formal and informal care for the dependent population in a number of European countries. METHOD: Data from the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe for 2004 were used and a bivariate probit model was estimated. Unlike other studies, the present analysis includes the institutional features of the various long-term care systems, in addition to the demographic, health and environmental characteristics of the individual receiving care. RESULTS: A significant correlation was found between the two options, which reveals that, conditional on receiving care, there was a preference for the combination of both types of care. The results show the importance of health status and living arrangements for defining the combination of formal and informal care. There were substantial differences in the likelihood of the two types of care among European countries. A notable finding was the importance of informal care in Spain in comparison with other countries. CONCLUSIONS: The probability of receiving formal or informal care is higher in countries where families have a legal obligation to look after dependent relatives and where institutionalization rates are higher. This finding should be considered in the design of long-term care policies. Therefore, to control growth of public expenditure and, at the same time, improve caregiver satisfaction, policies that combine distinct formal services should be promoted over the implementation of care allowances.

Trade-off entre cuidados formales e informales en Europa / Trade-off between formal and informal care in Europe

Objetivo: En este trabajo se estudia la relación entre cuidados personales formales e informales para la población dependiente en un conjunto de países europeos. Métodos: Se utilizan datos del Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (2004), y se estima un modelo probit bivariado. A diferencia de otros estudios, no sólo se tienen en cuenta características sociodemográficas, de salud y del entorno del receptor de los cuidados, sino que también se consideran las características institucionales de los sistemas de cuidados de largo plazo. Resultados: Se obtiene una correlación positiva y significativa entre ambas decisiones, es decir, condicional a recibir cuidados; hay una cierta preferencia por la combinación de ambos tipos de cuidados. Los resultados muestran la relevancia de las variables de salud y del régimen de convivencia a la hora de definir la combinación de cuidados formales e informales. Hay diferencias importantes en la probabilidad de utilización de ambos tipos de cuidados entre países europeos, y destaca la relevancia de los cuidados informales en España. Conclusiones: El diseño de políticas de cuidados de largo plazo debe tener en consideración que la probabilidad de recibir cuidados formales o informales aumenta más en los países donde hay obligación legal de atender a familiares dependientes o con una mayor tasa de institucionalización. Por tanto, la combinación de diferentes servicios formales, más que la implementación de prestaciones económicas para el cuidador, debiera considerarse como alternativa posible para controlar el gasto público y aumentar la satisfacción de los cuidadores (AU)

Objective: To study the relationship between formal and informal care for the dependent population in a number of European countries. Method: Data from the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe for 2004 were used and a bivariate probit model was estimated. Unlike other studies, the present analysis includes the institutional features of the various long-term care systems, in addition to the demographic, health and environmental characteristics of the individual receiving care. Results: A significant correlation was found between the two options, which reveals that, conditional on receiving care, there was a preference for the combination of both types of care. The results show the importance of health status and living arrangements for defining the combination of formal and informal care. There were substantial differences in the likelihood of the two types of care among European countries. A notable finding was the importance of informal care in Spain in comparison with other countries. Conclusions: The probability of receiving formal or informal care is higher in countries where families have a legal obligation to look after dependent relatives and where institutionalization rates are higher. This finding should be considered in the design of long-term care policies. Therefore, to control growth of public expenditure and, at the same time, improve caregiver satisfaction, policies that combine distinct formal services should be promoted over the implementation of care allowances (AU)