A network approach for identifying and delimiting biogeographical regions.

Biogeographical regions (geographically distinct assemblages of species and communities) constitute a cornerstone for ecology, biogeography, evolution and conservation biology. Species turnover measures are often used to quantify spatial biodiversity patterns, but algorithms based on similarity can be sensitive to common sampling biases in species distribution data. Here we apply a community detection approach from network theory that incorporates complex, higher-order presence-absence patterns. We demonstrate the performance of the method by applying it to all amphibian species in the world (c. 6,100 species), all vascular plant species of the USA (c. 17,600) and a hypothetical data set containing a zone of biotic transition. In comparison with current methods, our approach tackles the challenges posed by transition zones and succeeds in retrieving a larger number of commonly recognized biogeographical regions. This method can be applied to generate objective, data-derived identification and delimitation of the world's biogeographical regions.

Spatial bias in the marine fossil record.

Inference of past and present global biodiversity requires enough global data to distinguish biological pattern from sampling artifact. Pertinently, many studies have exposed correlated relationships between richness and sampling in the fossil record, and methods to circumvent these biases have been proposed. Yet, these studies often ignore paleobiogeography, which is undeniably a critical component of ancient global diversity. Alarmingly, our global analysis of 481,613 marine fossils spread throughout the Phanerozoic reveals that where localities are and how intensively they have been sampled almost completely determines empirical spatial patterns of richness, suggesting no separation of biological pattern from sampling pattern. To overcome this, we analyze diversity using occurrence records drawn from two discrete paleolatitudinal bands which cover the bulk of the fossil data. After correcting the data for sampling bias, we find that these two bands have similar patterns of richness despite markedly different spatial coverage. Our findings suggest that i) long-term diversity trends result from large-scale tectonic evolution of the planet, ii) short-term diversity trends are region-specific, and iii) paleodiversity studies must constrain their analyses to well-sampled regions to uncover patterns not driven by sampling.

Provincialization of terrestrial faunas following the end-Permian mass extinction.

In addition to their devastating effects on global biodiversity, mass extinctions have had a long-term influence on the history of life by eliminating dominant lineages that suppressed ecological change. Here, we test whether the end-Permian mass extinction (252.3 Ma) affected the distribution of tetrapod faunas within the southern hemisphere and apply quantitative methods to analyze four components of biogeographic structure: connectedness, clustering, range size, and endemism. For all four components, we detected increased provincialism between our Permian and Triassic datasets. In southern Pangea, a more homogeneous and broadly distributed fauna in the Late Permian (Wuchiapingian, ∼257 Ma) was replaced by a provincial and biogeographically fragmented fauna by Middle Triassic times (Anisian, ∼242 Ma). Importantly in the Triassic, lower latitude basins in Tanzania and Zambia included dinosaur predecessors and other archosaurs unknown elsewhere. The recognition of heterogeneous tetrapod communities in the Triassic implies that the end-Permian mass extinction afforded ecologically marginalized lineages the ecospace to diversify, and that biotic controls (i.e., evolutionary incumbency) were fundamentally reset. Archosaurs, which began diversifying in the Early Triassic, were likely beneficiaries of this ecological release and remained dominant for much of the later Mesozoic.

Nodal dynamics, not degree distributions, determine the structural controllability of complex networks.

Structural controllability has been proposed as an analytical framework for making predictions regarding the control of complex networks across myriad disciplines in the physical and life sciences (Liu et al., Nature:473(7346):167-173, 2011). Although the integration of control theory and network analysis is important, we argue that the application of the structural controllability framework to most if not all real-world networks leads to the conclusion that a single control input, applied to the power dominating set, is all that is needed for structural controllability. This result is consistent with the well-known fact that controllability and its dual observability are generic properties of systems. We argue that more important than issues of structural controllability are the questions of whether a system is almost uncontrollable, whether it is almost unobservable, and whether it possesses almost pole-zero cancellations.

Retracing micro-epidemics of Chagas disease using epicenter regression.

Vector-borne transmission of Chagas disease has become an urban problem in the city of Arequipa, Peru, yet the debilitating symptoms that can occur in the chronic stage of the disease are rarely seen in hospitals in the city. The lack of obvious clinical disease in Arequipa has led to speculation that the local strain of the etiologic agent, Trypanosoma cruzi, has low chronic pathogenicity. The long asymptomatic period of Chagas disease leads us to an alternative hypothesis for the absence of clinical cases in Arequipa: transmission in the city may be so recent that most infected individuals have yet to progress to late stage disease. Here we describe a new method, epicenter regression, that allows us to infer the spatial and temporal history of disease transmission from a snapshot of a population's infection status. We show that in a community of Arequipa, transmission of T. cruzi by the insect vector Triatoma infestans occurred as a series of focal micro-epidemics, the oldest of which began only around 20 years ago. These micro-epidemics infected nearly 5% of the community before transmission of the parasite was disrupted through insecticide application in 2004. Most extant human infections in our study community arose over a brief period of time immediately prior to vector control. According to our findings, the symptoms of chronic Chagas disease are expected to be absent, even if the strain is pathogenic in the chronic phase of disease, given the long asymptomatic period of the disease and short history of intense transmission. Traducción al español disponible en Alternative Language Text S1/A Spanish translation of this article is available in Alternative Language Text S1.

Rational spatio-temporal strategies for controlling a Chagas disease vector in urban environments.

The rational design of interventions is critical to controlling communicable diseases, especially in urban environments. In the case of the Chagas disease vector Triatoma infestans, successful control is stymied by the return of the insect after the effectiveness of the insecticide wanes. Here, we adapt a genetic algorithm, originally developed for the travelling salesman problem, to improve the spatio-temporal design of insecticide campaigns against T. infestans, in a complex urban environment. We find a strategy that reduces the expected instances of vector return 34-fold compared with the current strategy of sequential insecticide application to spatially contiguous communities. The relative success of alternative control strategies depends upon the duration of the effectiveness of the insecticide, and it shows chaotic fluctuations in response to unforeseen delays in a control campaign. We use simplified models to analyse the outcomes of qualitatively different spatio-temporal strategies. Our results provide a detailed procedure to improve control efforts for an urban Chagas disease vector, as well as general guidelines for improving the design of interventions against other disease agents in complex environments.